Black Friday is expected to become the busiest shopping day on record as Nationwide Building Society predicts that shoppers will help drive sales beyond pre-pandemic levels this weekend.
The expected growth, based on recent Nationwide debit and credit card spend patterns, follows 2020's year-on-year drop in spending for the first time with the country in the midst of a national lockdown.
And in what is widely considered to be a return to normality in terms of shopping habits, purchases this year will likely also be fuelled by fears over empty shelves and supply issues in the run-up to Christmas.
Britain’s biggest building society forecasts spending on Black Friday to be up by nearly a third (32%) on what was seen on the same day in 2019.
Nationwide customers are expected to make around 10.51 million payments on Black Friday 2021, compared to the 7.94 million transactions in 2019 - an increase of around a third (32%).
Last year, 7.73 million transactions were made by customers, so the predicted number of payments this year represents an increase of 36 per cent.
With the average transaction on Black Friday amounting to £34.50, Nationwide predicts total spend to be around £362.6 million - equivalent to more than £251,000 per minute. That is a 19 per cent rise on last year’s spending of £305.6 million.
Based on the Society’s 2019 debit card data, 3.76 million transactions took place between 9am and 5pm, while a further 2.34 million were done between 5pm and 12am and 1.01 million payments were made overnight and into the early morning, between 12am and 9am.
Black Friday debit card transactions 2019
Time of the day and number of transactions:
- 12am to 9am - 1.01 million
- 9am to 5pm - 3.76 million
- 5pm to 12am - 2.34 million
Christmas spending
Separate consumer research of more than 2,000 people by Nationwide found that although more than a third (35%) have started their Christmas shopping already, nearly one in 10 (9%) will be using Black Friday and Cyber Monday to buy gifts.
However, close to a fifth (19%) will wait until the start of December to make their festive purchases, while one in ten (10%) say they always leave their shopping until the last minute.
While nearly half (47%) said they will spend the same amount as normal to celebrate Christmas this year, 29 per cent of people said they will spend less, with more than half (53%) of those saying it’s because they can’t afford to spend as much.
More than one in 10 (12%) said they will spend more this year, with nearly half of them (48%) saying it’s because there was no family Christmas in 2020 and they really want to celebrate this time.
More than a third of people (36%) worry about how much they spend at Christmas, while more than a quarter (26%) say they expect to start 2022 in more debt than they started this year.
Mark Nalder, Head of Payments at Nationwide Building Society, said: “With last year’s Black Friday occurring amid a national lockdown, it’s no surprise that we saw our first year-on-year drop in spending on the day.
“However, with the nation now very much back open, we expect Black Friday to be the busiest shopping day for Nationwide members this year with spending and transactions going beyond pre-pandemic levels.”
But he did have a warning for bargain hunters: “With the rising cost of living continuing to stretch family household finances, it’s important people try to spend within their means, especially as our research suggests a quarter of people are likely to start 2022 in more debt than they started this year.”
To help Scottish shoppers make the most of the online sales while staying safe, Advice Direct Scotland has issued key tips for all bargain hunters.
Colin Mathieson, spokesperson for Advice Direct Scotland, said: “There are many ways for consumers to ensure they get a bargain when shopping online on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which makes the experience even more worthwhile.
“Don’t forget to shop around, there may be other websites that offer the same products for less. By checking prices with other retailers, you can save money.
“If possible, and if you are able to pay off your card balance, putting purchases for more expensive items on a credit card is recommended as this provides additional consumer protection.
“Scots should also remember they have more rights online than in store - you have the right to return most goods purchased online within 14 days for a full refund.”
Advice Direct Scotland’s top shopping tips for Black Friday
- Make the most of your money - check prices with other retailers before any final decisions
- Avoid hidden delivery charges - check the cost of shipping to your address at fairdeliveries.scot
- Use a credit card if spending over £100 - your purchase will be protected under Section 75 of the Consumer Credit Act
- Check the returns policy - retailers have different policies on returning unwanted goods, but you have the right to return most goods purchased online within 14 days for a full refund
- Don’t buy fake goods - they may not be safe, and you might not be able to get a refund
- Look out for scammers - check the website is secure and that it has a valid UK address, returns policy and terms and conditions
Free, impartial and practical advice is available if something goes wrong with a purchase at consumeradvice.scot or by calling 0808 164 6000.
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