Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party began laying its roots in Goa in the mid-1990s, the party has had a history of forging alliances with regional parties and later jettisoning them once their utility had served its purpose.
The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) — the coastal State’s oldest indigenous party — was at one time the BJP’s ‘elder brother’, much like the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.
Despite being ideologically aligned with the BJP, the MGP’s attrition has been dramatic after 1999. It climaxed in the former poaching two of MGP’s three MLAs in 2019 and sacking Sudin Dhavalikar, the MGP’s senior leader as Goa’s Deputy Chief Minister.
The BJP’s ‘corporate acquisition’ spree reached its apogee in 2019, when it broke its rival Congress by snaring 10 of the 15 Congress legislators into its fold. This despite the latter having emerged as the single-largest party after the 2017 Assembly election.
However, as all parties gear up for the 2022 Assembly election, observers say a lot has changed in the last five years and that the BJP’s strategy of indiscriminate making and breaking could well boomerang on it.
‘Once bitten, twice shy’
“Violating coalition dharma, the BJP had unceremoniously dumped the MGP once the latter served its purpose. It did the same with the Goa Forward Party, the other major regional party. It ruthlessly broke up with the Congress as well. Until now, a lack of unity among the Opposition has benefited the shrewd BJP. But now, there is a serious feeling of ‘once bitten, twice shy’ amongst the big regional parties who are extremely chary about forming any future alliance with the BJP,” says Goa-based academic and political analyst Manoj Kamat.
An indication of this comes in the form of the latest remarks made by the leaders of the MGP and the GFP.
Earlier this week, GFP president Vijai Sardesai said the time had come for his party and all those opposed to the BJP to come together and form a broad ‘anti-BJP front’ for the upcoming Assembly election.
‘Keep egos aside’
“The GFP, the Congress, the Trinamool Congress and the MGP should keep aside their egos and join hands as part of a broad coalition to take on the ruling BJP,” he had said.
Mr. Sardesai added the BJP could “play dirty” with other parties during campaigning by using COVID-19 restrictions as a pretext. “They [the BJP] will try and stop us and not allow our meetings under the guise of ‘restrictions’ but they will conduct their own meetings…there is a need for ‘Team Goa’ to liberate the State from the present ‘BJP virus’,” Mr. Sardesai said.
Likewise, Mr. Dhavalikar of the MGP, in a recent interview to a local channel, rued how the BJP had become a ‘cold corporate entity’.
Yet, despite his vehement remarks against the BJP now, it may be recalled that in 2017, it was Mr. Sardesai, along with two other GFP MLAs, who had helped the BJP form a government under Manohar Parrikar.
This time, however, the GFP has already announced a pre-poll tie-up with the Congress, while the MGP has allied itself with the TMC in spite of being on the opposite sides of the ideological fence.
While the lure of power makes for strange political bedfellows who often spurn ‘ideology’, observers say this time there appears to be a strong ‘anti-BJP’ feeling among regional parties who are disgruntled with the BJP’s cynical exploitation of them.
‘Understanding dangers’
“The BJP engineered defection within the MGP despite the latter being its closest ally. At the time, the GFP was enjoying the show and gloating at the MGP’s misfortune. However, the same fate soon befell the GFP. So, whether regional forces understand these dangers and have decided to wise up to the BJP’s stratagems is something this election will tell. This time, it appears that in the event of a fractured verdict, all opposition parties are likely to group against the BJP,” says Mr. Kamat.
The BJP is ranged against five opposing forces – the Congress, the TMC, the GFP, the MGP and the AAP.
“Today the BJP consists of 70% of ex-Congress leaders. Moreover, the voter base of the BJP and the MGP is the same. The latter is now extremely bitter against the former, so the MGP will be eating into the BJP’s votes. The voter base of other parties is the same. So, even if these parties cut into each other’s votes, the BJP stands to lose either way,” says another analyst.
‘Problems within BJP’
He adds that in the event of a fractured verdict, the regional parties are likely to assert themselves.
“In the absence of Manohar Parrikar, it is highly unlikely the BJP will get a favourable response from Vijai Sardesai and Sudin Dhavalikar. There are problems within the BJP’s ranks with MLAs like Michael Lobo speaking openly against the party,” he says.
