Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has surged to a new all-time high of $118,909 on Coinbase on Friday morning propelled by steady institutional buying, but analysts warn the rally could face pressure from geopolitical and inflation-driven uncertainties in the weeks ahead.
What Happened: The world's largest cryptocurrency jumped 6.3% in the last 24 hours, breaking out of the sideways trading pattern that has persisted for much of the past two months.
Stephen Wundke, Director of Strategy and Revenue at Algoz, pointed to the continued inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, amounting to $15 billion in net buying over the past two months, as a critical driver of upward momentum.
"Institutions have kept buying BTC ETFs," Wundke told Benzinga. "Traders who lack exposure are now trying to recover positions, forcing prices higher."
He added that dovish inflation signals globally and renewed corporate interest in adding Bitcoin to treasury holdings are fostering favorable conditions for further upside.
"History shows us when BTC breaks new highs and holds, there's been a circa 20% uplift in the next 60 days," he noted, predicting a short-term target of $125,000—provided inflation data from the U.S. remains benign.
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Ajay Dhingra, Head of Research and Partnerships at Unizen, was more cautious. "Bitcoin's new all-time high comes during a rare moment of calm in global politics and trade," he said.
However, Dhingra warned that upcoming macro data releases—particularly GDP and inflation figures—may reflect the impact of Middle East tensions and impending tariffs, potentially reigniting market volatility.
"This rally may not hold if that calm gives way to fresh volatility," he added.
The broader crypto market followed Bitcoin's lead.
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) rose over 8% to top $3,000, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) gained 8% as well to surpass $2.60.
Market sentiment also received a lift from optimism around likely ETF approvals for altcoins like Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) and Ripple, both of which broke key trendlines in recent trading sessions.
What’s Next: While enthusiasm is growing, experts caution that the sustainability of this rally hinges on upcoming macroeconomic events, particularly the U.S. inflation report due July 15 and the Bitcoin options expiry on July 25, two potential catalysts that could sway short-term market direction.
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