Bernstein on Monday said that Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) institutional base is solid enough to support a higher long-term trajectory, setting a new 2026 target at $150,000.
Bernstein Sees Bitcoin Entering A Longer Bull Cycle
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, quoted Bernstein’s latest report, citing that Bitcoin has broken its traditional 4-year cycle and entered "an elongated bull-cycle."
The shift is being driven by institutional buying that has replaced the old pattern of retail-driven volatility.
The firm noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw only about 5% outflows during the correction, even as the asset fell from above $125,000 to around $90,000.
Bernstein updated its price forecasts, calling for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026, with a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027 and a long-term price target of $1 million by 2033.
The new outlook follows an earlier research note where Bernstein described its earlier $200,000 forecast as "conservative," underscoring how fast institutional flows have reshaped the market's structure.
Fed Policy Plays A Key Role In Near-Term Market Direction
Trading firms and macro strategists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday.
Analysts David Brickell and Chris Mills of the London Crypto Club said in their weekly newsletter that a "dovish surprise" could trigger a sharp Bitcoin rebound if the Fed expands liquidity through bond purchases.
The pair said a continued rate-cutting cycle combined with balance sheet expansion would be a "powerful, structural tide" for risk assets into the new year.
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said policymakers are "expected almost universally" to cut rates again, marking the third reduction this year.
The CME FedWatch tool shows an 86% probability of a quarter-point cut, while prediction markets on Polymarket place the odds near 94%.
Historically, lower rates have supported assets like Bitcoin because they reduce risk-free yield and push capital toward higher-return markets.
Global Policy Week Adds Volatility Pressure
Investors are monitoring several international policy developments in addition to the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Central banks in Canada, Australia, and Switzerland will announce decisions this week, while China and Taiwan will release export data that could influence broader market risk sentiment.
Japan is also weighing another rate increase to combat yen weakness.
Combined, these events introduce additional uncertainty at a time when Bitcoin is already trading inside a tight technical structure.
Bitcoin Technicals Show Compression As Market Waits For A Breakout
Bitcoin Price Analysis (Source: TradingView)
BTC continues to move inside a narrowing triangle pattern, with price stabilizing above $88,500 support.
This level has held three times and remains the key barrier between consolidation and a deeper slide toward the low $80,000s.
A descending trendline from the November peak has capped every rebound.
Resistance between $90,400 and $91,000 includes the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $90,799.
A clean break above $91,000 opens the path toward $93,900 and then $97,100, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
On the downside, a break below $88,500 exposes $86,800 — the level traders identify as the structural do-not-break area.
Losing it could trigger a fast decline toward $82,000 due to thin support below.
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