Economist and crypto advisor Alex Krüger is arguing that the current Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle remains intact, despite investor panic during corrections.
What Happened: In an X post on Aug. 18, Krüger said the market is already 7x above 2022 lows, with recent gains driven more by TradFi treasury engineering than retail excess.
Krüger dismissed the traditional four-year halving model as outdated, pointing out that the 2021 peak was shaped by macro policy, not supply mechanics.
That cycle ended when the Federal Reserve pivoted hawkish in January 2022 not due to crypto-specific factors.
He added that Bitcoin now trades more like a stock, with lower volatility, slow advances, and fewer explosive breakouts compared to pre-ETF eras.
July's breakout, he noted, looked calmer and ETF-structured.
BTC also struggles to rally without leverage and currently sits on its April trendline.
What's Next: Krüger expects a major catalyst with September's FOMC meeting, predicting the Fed will cut rates.
He highlighted upcoming data, such as PCE, NFP, CPI, and PPI, as key inputs before the meeting.
Near term, Powell's Jackson Hole speech is likely to sound hawkish to preserve Fed flexibility.
Looking ahead, Krüger sees future dovish policy, especially if a Trump administration appoints a new Fed chair, as a driver of extended upside not yet priced in.
He emphasized that bull markets don't end from valuation excess alone, "a major external trigger" is required.
He views August 2024 as a template for August 2025, reinforcing his conviction that the Bitcoin cycle is not yet finished.
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