Bitcoin is back above $93,000.
The figures look dazzling. Headlines scream momentum. Social media is buzzing with talk of $100,000 as if it is already certain.
But beneath the surface, a darker mood is emerging. This is not a market driven by confidence; it is a market riddled with nerves. And history suggests that when fear and rising prices coincide, late buyers often pay the price.
A Rally Powered by Inflation Relief
Bitcoin crossed $93k for the first time in nearly a week following the release of new US inflation data, which showed inflation was stable. Inflation increased by 0.3% in December, with an annual rate of 2.7%.
For traders, that was enough.
Investors assumed rate cuts could soon be on the horizon, with Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair nearing its end. As a result, they started bidding on risk-related assets. Markets responded with healthy rallies, and cryptocurrencies followed suit.
Bitcoin rose by over 2% within 24 hours, trading at approximately $93,406, with volume increasing by 20% to $88.9 billion, according to CoinGlass. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, also benefited. Dogecoin, in particular, stood out.
On the surface, the outlook appears bullish — a new cycle may be beginning.
Why Volume Can Be a Dangerous Signal
High trading volume is often seen as a sign of underlying bullishness: more confidence from buyers, fresh capital entering the market, and a potential breakout. However, analysts are beginning to warn that the recent high volume could signal something different.
For example, the current cumulative volume delta (CVD) on the spot market is worsening. In simple terms, sellers are gaining dominance over buyers, which contradicts the typical activity expected during a healthy rally. Although trading activity has increased, market sentiment has not kept pace.
Understanding trader behaviour is crucial: experienced traders tend to sell into strength, while new buyers often chase headlines and momentum.
Political Risk Hangs Over the Rally
Overall, uncertainty is mounting across financial markets this week. Attention is focused on the US Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of President Trump's trade policies, including tariffs. A ruling could be issued within days, possibly as soon as Wednesday.
Historically, Trump's trade actions have triggered significant swings in both equities and cryptocurrencies. Any unexpected outcome from the case could rapidly lead to sharp increases or declines in risk assets.
According to QCP Capital, the ruling could dramatically shift sentiment across multiple asset classes — equities, bonds, forex — almost overnight.
For Bitcoin, volatility is now not just a risk but the main event.
Why Late Buyers Are Most Exposed
Early buyers were able to 'breathe' after purchasing during the height of fear, when prices were much lower. Late buyers, however, do not have that luxury.
With price climbing and seller dominance increasing, rallies risk becoming traps. The market may push prices higher enough to attract new money, only to reverse sharply, leaving many investors stuck holding below previous rally levels.
Late buyers see only the $93,000 mark and believe $100,000 is imminent — a psychological target. They often overlook the underlying defensive positions taking shape beneath the rally.
If Bitcoin stalls or pulls back, late buyers risk becoming forced holders, while early investors will have exited quietly, waiting for their next opportunity.
Disclaimer: Our digital media content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Please conduct your own analysis or seek professional advice before investing. Remember, investments are subject to market risks and past performance doesn't indicate future returns.
