On-chain data shows that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is holding a crucial support level at $114,000, with markets now at a crossroads that could define its next price direction.
What Happened: Bitcoin remains locked in a $110,000–$116,000 range, with Glassnode data suggesting that a move above $114,000 could unlock bullish momentum, while losing $108,000 risks cascading stress.
Since the mid-August all-time high, BTC has retraced into an "air gap," redistributing supply below the cost basis of recent top-buyers.
On-chain metrics show healthy dip-buying around $108,000, yet the key debate remains whether this signals consolidation or the start of contraction.
Also Read: Bitcoin At $114,000 Ahead Of Inflation Data: Here’s How High It Could Go
Supply Clusters Shaping Price
Glassnode's cost basis distribution highlights three investor groups shaping price action:
- Top-buyers (~$113,800): Need higher prices to turn profitable.
- Dip-buyers (~$112,800): Providing cushion to the downside.
- Short-term holders (~$108,300): At risk of slipping into losses if support fails.
Reclaiming $113,800 would restore confidence for top-buyers, but breaking below $108,300 could drag BTC toward the next major cluster near $93,000.
Profit-Taking vs. Loss Realization
During the bounce from $108,000 to $114,000, short-term holders (3–6 months) booked ~$189 million/day in profits, while recent buyers realized losses up to $152 million/day, mirroring stress phases in April 2024 and January 2025. For a rally to sustain, new demand must absorb both sides of this flow.
Why It Matters: Spot Bitcoin ETF demand has weakened sharply, with net flows slipping to just ±500 BTC/day, far below peak inflows earlier in the cycle.
As inflows fade, derivatives are increasingly propping up market structure.
Futures data suggests seller exhaustion with a balanced market, while the 3-month annualized basis remains below 10%, signaling steady but contained leverage.
Bitcoin's stability is now held together by derivatives demand, while ETF inflows and long-term holder conviction show signs of fatigue, leaving the market vulnerable at this $110,000–$116,000 inflection point.
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