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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Environment
Naaman Zhou

Bird of the year 2019: galah misses out as top 10 announced for run-off vote

A pair of galahs
A pair of galahs waits expectantly. Will the popular parrot edge out the mighty wedge-tailed eagle as the first round of voting for bird of the year comes to a close? Photograph: Alamy

And with that, we’ll be wrapping up the liveblog for today – but voting is now fully underway for the final round of Bird of the Year. The slate is wiped clean. These 10 made it this far, they can do anything.

At dawn today, the willie wagtail was sitting pretty. It was safe, secure, mentally on holiday, round 2 participant sash draped around the beak.

By the end, as the count went dark and the data team scratched in the depths, it was anyone’s game.

As we sort of predicted, it came down to the tiny moments. The write-ins, the timestamps, the millisecond margins. We thought it was just the eagle and galah. Then the wagtail was drawn in. The cassowary reached out a single claw. At the finish, the screen flashed and showed them all equal, but that too was gone.

The result was so close we were scrambling through the write-ins. In that late, late surge, the galah was three away from the salvation of tenth, five away from the glory of ninth.

Then, it was out. By four measly votes.

But that’s the past now. Welcome to round 2. Believe it or not, that was just the prelude. The ultimate prize is waiting. The wedge-tailed eagle can reach out with a talon and feel it, the galah, sadly can’t.

Who will win?

Updated

The internal cassowary review into the unloseable election is in:

Given the tremendous late surge – 20% – and the social media buzz, you have to say there was an untapped voter base out there. Why did they leave it so late? 12 more hours would have seen them home.

Here is the final result for all 50 birds in the first round, excluding any write-in votes:

Bird of the year 2019 final first round votes
The full spreadsheet is available here

So what happened?

At 8am, when this blog started it was:

  • (#9) Willie wagtail: 1611
  • (#10) Wedge-tailed eagle: 1553
  • (#11) Galah: 1508
  • (#12) Carnaby’s black-cockatoo: 1230
  • (#13) Southern cassowary: 1186
  • (#14) Gang-gang cockatoo: 1111

So in the race for 10th, the wagtail started 58 ahead of the eagle, which was itself 45 ahead of the galah. The galah thus was 103 behind 9th.

The wagtail added only 98 votes over three hours. The wedge-tailed added 155. The galah piled on 197.

Between 12th and 13th, the carnaby’s started 44 ahead of the cassowary. Then the cassowary added a monster 231. The carnaby’s added 40.

I’m crunching the numbers. The cassowary vote surged 19.5% in only three hours between 8am and 11am. The galah went up 13% – compared to the eagle’s 10% and wagtail’s 6%.

This graph tells the story of those frantic last few hours. Look at those cassowary and galah surges!

Bird of the year final surge
Bird of the year final surge Photograph: Nick Evershed/The Guardian

Here are the top 15 positions, animated over the entire voting period:

Or check it out here if the embed doesn’t load correctly.

Note the final surge up the rankings for the Cassowary, and the three-way tussle between the Galah, Wagtail and Wedge-tail.

Updated

Brad Bird (15 votes) also directed the 2007 film Ratatouille. Perhaps next time there can be alliance between birds and rats.

My thoughts: If the Pacific Black Duck got more votes (26) that the main character of the one of the most globally popular games of 2019 (22), perhaps the campaign actually did quite well. Checkmate “data editor”.

Top write-ins

Based on total write-in votes, the King Parrot is likely to make an appearance in the next Bird of the Year competition. The parrot had 182 votes via write-in, above the combined total of regular and write-in votes for the least popular bird on the first 50, the Jabiru or Black-necked stork, which came in last with 171 votes.

People also had a few votes for a specific bird of the year, including:

  • The Goose from pop culture phenomenon Untitled Goose Game had 22 write-in votes.
  • The cockatoo made famous for removing anti-bird spikes received at least one vote specifically
  • Coles Piping Hot Roast Chicken™ received one vote
  • “Brad Bird” received 15 votes. Were they for noted American voice actor, director and animator Brad Bird? Not sure
  • The write-in campaign for the Pacific Black Duck amounted to a very small [eds note - I would say valiant!] number of votes, with 26 in total
  • Brenda the Civil Disobedience Penguin received one vote
  • “Bin Chicken” received 10 votes

Speaking of, here’s the real Nick Evershed, with the top write-ins – who could now graduate to the top 50 next time.

And look at this finch analysis that is almost worthy of our own Nick Evershed

“Comparing this year to last time (2017), the finch has a bigger share of the initial votes than either of the two leaders from last year - who had national endorsements from Triple J.” Interesting.

Magpie supporters are finding other angles to strike back

The black-throated finch was in the lead for round one, thousands of votes ahead of the magpie in second.

Earlier I asked their spokesperson how confident they are:

“I expect the black-throated finch will do very well, but definitely have no presumptions. It could be very close. There’s no secret campaign formula. I just hope to keep people informed and slightly entertained as the vote progresses.”

When asked which bird was their biggest competitor, they launched a direct attack on the magpie, last year’s winner.

“The other nine birds against this rare finch are all common and popular birds. So, I’m thinking they’ll all do well, but hoping we don’t have a rerun with the same winner. I like the idea of sharing. Maybe Guardian Australia will consider eliminating the winner for the following year’s poll in future?”

The jockeying has begun for round 2. There are the floating votes of 40 unlucky birds, and (write-ins!) out there, looking for a home. The big 10 are campaigning in earnest.

I have obtained this concession speech from cassowary spokesdog, First Dog on the Moon.

“I will never concede – we will demand a recount and then off to the court of disputed returns. And while we do that we will also be lobbying for a top 13 as more representative of the desire of decent bird-loving Australians”.

But, I understand he has told internal colleagues: “Hmm we probably should have started a few days ago”.

Updated

So before write-ins, the galah was 5 away from as high as ninth. The wagtail was 2 ahead of the eagle, who was only 3 ahead of the galah. Incredible.

Voting is now open for the final round. It’s the same link you used before.

They are (in no particular order): Superb fairywren, willie wagtail, rainbow lorikeet, magpie, kookaburra, black-throated finch, white ibis, tawny frogmouth, wedge-tailed eagle, suplhur-crested cockatoo.

We’ll have more analysis and data on these last, frantic hours up soon.

Updated

An explanation of the counting process from electoral commissioner Nick Evershed:

The final vote count at the close of the poll was very close for the willie wagtail (1710), wedge-tailed eagle (1708) and galah (1705).

These totals vary slightly from the final ones published on the site due to delays in publishing the vote totals from the database, and our process for ensuring votes are valid based on the timestamps of the votes received

For the final count we exclude votes before and after the poll opens and closes, which alters the totals slightly.

Willie wagtail received 15 write-ins, the eagle seven, and the galah six, putting the final vote count as 1725, 1715 and 1711 respectively. This means the galah is knocked out of the final top 10 runoff vote.

Galah misses out by 4 votes

This is it. After one round, 2 weeks, and more than 50,000 votes, it came down to 4.

At the close of polls, with all write-in votes accounted for, the final standings were:

  • (#9) Willie wagtail: 1,725
  • (#10) Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,715
  • (#11) Galah: 1,711

I hereby declare the willie wagtail and the wedge-tailed eagle progress to the final round.

Only 14 votes separated ninth and eleventh, meaning we were surely only minutes away from both the eagle and galah soaring through. This one will sting for team galah.

Before write-ins, the wedge-tailed eagle was on 1,708 and the galah on 1,705. The wagtail received 15 write-ins, the eagle seven, and the galah six.

Updated

I have been told that a result is imminent.

If we knew counting the votes would take so long – we could have had some talking heads in the office. Different people from the various bird campaigns, discussing how the night’s going for them.

No uncertainty about this result, at least. Trending #1.

Some haunting words from 2017, and Ben Raue, who designed the current two round system.

A fairer voting system for a bird poll wouldn’t need to be too complicated to be reasonably fair.

You could conduct it in two rounds. The first, say, five options...would go through to a second round of voting, with voters then choosing a single winner from that group.

Anyone for a runoff round?

This morning, some naysayers said my opening paragraph to this blog – about how small moments can change the course of history – was a bit too much.

I believe I’ve now been proven right. A handful of votes, a few seconds, could be make or break for three different birds. And the knock-on effects could reverberate through the rest. Who will be left wondering, what if?

In federal elections, under AEC regulations, a full recount is conducted if the margin between first and second after preferences is less than 100 votes.

Electoral analyst Ben Raue:

We cannot stress enough that the result is so close, it needs forensic analysis before any declaration.

More than 50,000 votes have been cast, over two weeks. At the latest tally, the wagtail was only 2 ahead of the wedge-tailed eagle, which itself was only 12 ahead of the galah.

Write-ins were available the whole period and we are counting them now.

Refresh your browser, refresh your browser, refresh your browser.

This is what you should be seeing.

I am being told that not only do write-in votes need to be tallied, but double votes need to be removed.

Please disregard inflammatory posts such as this:

It's down to the write-in votes

Here’s what happening. The most important thing is the result is unknown.

There’s a lot going on.

Our electoral commission of Nick Evershed and Andy Ball have paused voting.

The result is so close, with at times, less than 10 votes between three birds going for two spaces (out of over 50,000 votes), that we’re going to need to check again.

Votes are still trickling in, data is still refreshing, it all comes down to timestamps, and – most importantly of all, we’ll have to now manually check all the write-in votes.

If you refresh the voting page, you’ll see it has switched to the page for round 2. You may see that the galah is not on this – but the eagle and wagtail are. This is not an indication of who has won, and voting has been paused on this page currently.

Round two was not scheduled to start until 12pm AEDT (in an hour) anyway.

The updates here will continue.

Updated

Neck and neck and neck?

Some incredible scenes right now. I don’t know quite what to say.

Our data team are working furiously right now.

Despite the leaderboard showing, at 11am AEDT, that the galah was OUT by a margin of 12 votes, a later refresh has shown all three birds to be equal on 1,709.

I’ve been told that it may take a little while to check the votes, millisecond by millisecond, to figure out who is through.

I have to stress that this is not the final result, as the data is still being updated.

Please refresh your browser, on all bird of the year windows. Stay with us.

One minute left

The galah is 12 behind the eagle and salvation.

Wagtail is 2 ahead of the eagle.

The powerful account Parrot of the Day is backing the galah. This tweet a minute ago could be the source of the surge

TWELVE VOTES now in it between the galah and the eagle. Is this a late run?

Wagtail 2 ahead of the eagle, which is 20 ahead of the galah.

The cassowary is 300 votes away from all of them. I have gone to First Dog for a concession speech. I think the writing is on the wall.

This is the closest the galah has been to 10th all day. Is it enough? 5 minutes left. Still 20 behind.

The galah (#11) is 20 votes behind the eagle (#10).

From data editor Nick Evershed, here’s this morning in a graph. Look at that cassowary spike.

Of course, at the rate this is all moving, it’s already slightly out of date.

Bird of the year final votes
Bird of the year final votes Photograph: Nick Evershed/The Guardian

Wagtail up to 9th

But wait – another refresh, and the wagtail is back! It reclaims 9th, now 3 ahead of the eagle.

The galah has also added 12 votes in only 4 minutes. It’s only 23 behind the eagle.

Don’t trust any predictions, it’s frantic.

There we go. The eagle overtakes the wagtail. It hasn’t faltered today, and from starting off in danger, now seems completely safe.

A strong, strong late showing for the wagtail means it’s fending off the galah’s advance. But there could yet be another twist in this narrative yet.

15 minutes left - eagle up to 9th

As at 10.45am AEDT

  • (#9) Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,691 (+63 since 10am)
  • (#10) Willie wagtail: 1,689 (+61)
  • (#11) Galah: 1,660 (+68)
  • (#12) Cassowary: 1,369 (+87)

Updated

Eagle and wagtail equal

As of 10.43 AEDT, the eagle and wagtail are EXACTLY even at 1,683.

The galah is still 33 behind both. Full figures coming up soon.

In the meantime, the black-throated finch looks set to absolutely clinch number one – for this first round. Will it hold onto the lead in round two?

A spokesman for the finch campaign has thanked supporters, after being interviewed by Guardian Australia earlier this morning.

“Minor premiers sounds good!” they said. “To the BTF voters, I say thank you! You’re caring and commitment inspires hope. Each of you is a crucial vote and you need to stick with us for round 2. And also to the scientists in the BTF recovery team.”

“Everyone knows why the BTF is up front. It’s being wiped out to expand fossil fuels whilst a climate emergency is on the boil....This is the only threatened bird in the top ten, so I hope others flock to the cause.”

We’ll hear more from them later – right now, the focus is still on round 1.

The galah has not overtaken the eagle once today. They’ve been adding on votes at pretty much the same rate – though the margin has been cut from around 40 to 30.

Votes are pouring in. A minute after that last post, I refresh and there’s 5 more for the wagtail and an equal 5 more for the wedge-tailed. Only 1 more for galah.

Right now:

Wagtail is 2 ahead of the eagle. Eagle is 30 ahead of the galah.

Updated

30 minutes left

As at 10.30am AEDT

  • (#9) Willie wagtail: 1,666 (+29 since 10am)
  • (#10) Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,664 (+36)
  • (#11) Galah: 1,638 (+46)
  • (#12) Cassowary: 1,334 (+52)

An SOS going out from team willie wagtail. So close to the finish, you’ve got to call in every favour. There will be time to rest and recover in round 2. The slate is wiped clean.

THREE VOTES between the willie wagtail and the wedge-tailed eagle.

But the wagtail is still 30 ahead of the galah.

So many great birds – some still in the running, others now bowing out. Don’t let the race for 10th obscure their achievements.

Panic in camp cassowary. Have they mobilised too late? Still over 300 votes away from 10th.

I’ll need them to release their own election autopsy – how did this happen?

At 10.15 (AEDT):

  • (#9) Willie wagtail: 1,650 (+13 since 10am)
  • (#10) Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,641 (+13)
  • (#11) Galah: 1,612 (+20)
  • (#12) Cassowary: 1,303 (+21)

The wagtail has to fight a rearguard action here. But I’m not seeing any campaigners doing anything, there is no late rally. They’re completely blindsided.

In the past 7 minutes, the wagtail has added 2 votes, the eagle 3, the galah has surged 7.

Wagtail is currently 8 ahead of the eagle. Eagle is 33 ahead of the galah.

But the galah has the most momentum in the last hour.

One hour left

The final stretch, and it’s all to play for. This morning, it was eagle or galah. Now it could be both – and the wagtail out.

A huge late cassowary surge is on, but it might not be enough.

The standings as of 10am (AEDT):

  • (9) Willie wagtail: 1,637 (+19 since 9am)
  • (10) Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,628 (+44 since 9am)
  • (11) Galah: 1,592 (+59)
  • (12) Cassowary: 1,282 (+86)

The eagle is 42 ahead of the galah – barely a change since 8am (AEDT). But the galah is now only 55 behind the wagtail. It was 102 behind at 8am.

Could this be goodbye wagtail?

Just over an 1 hour left.

The latest:

  • (9) Willie wagtail: 1,630
  • (10) Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,617
  • (11) Galah: 1,575
  • (12) Southern cassowary: 1,255
  • (13) Carnaby’s black-cockatoo: 1,245

The WA cockatoo lovers are trying to mount an urgent campaign

Hang on...is the willie wagtail in danger?

On the latest figures, a huge upset could be brewing. The high-profile fight between the wedge-tailed eagle and the galah is propelling both up the charts. The wagtail, sitting at 9th, hasn’t seen much love.

It’s only 20 above the eagle. And the eagle’s added 35 votes in the last 40 minutes, the galah 38.

The wagtail has only added 11 in that time. It’s only 58 votes away from dropping out of round 2 altogether. Watch this space.

Cassowary up to 12th

The cassowary has overtaken the carnaby’s black cockatoo. This is huge. It’s now 5 votes ahead.

The stats behind this are incredible, and I’ll crunch them for you soon, but it’ll have to wait a second because...

THREE VOTES now between the cassowary and the carnaby’s.

There is huge, huge buzz for the cassowary. It’s now only 14 behind the carnaby’s! half an hour ago, it was 38 behind. Social media is lighting up.

It’s surging, and it’s coming for 12th. The only issue – 12th is still over 300 votes away from 10th. Is it too little too late?

If you’re a parrot or galah voter, email me or tweet on the #birdoftheyear hashtag.

I want to know how confident you’re feeling, your last-minute campaign tactics. And, if worst comes to worst, who you will be voting for in round 2 if your candidate doesn’t get up.

Spare a thought for the cassowary. Powerful, intimidating, can disembowel you with a toenail. But only 13th? 33 votes behind the carnaby’s, 346 behind galah, 387 behind the eagle?

Head of the cassowary’s late stage campaign, resident cartoonist First Dog On The Moon had this to say: “[The birds above the cassowary,] those are stupid birds. Isn’t the rainbow lorikeet feral in some parts of the country? The tawny frogmouth isn’t even a bird – look at it.”

How confident is he of the cassowary making the top 10?

“100% confident. But we need to get online and we need to vote now. This is important. Cassowaries never win anything.”

Don’t think we’ve forgotten number 12. The carnaby’s black cockatoo, the pride of Western Australia.

It’s currently 313 votes behind the galah, and 354 behind the eagle. Is it looking bleak?

At least, carnaby’s fans could be happy that their sulphur-crested cousin is up there at #4. But then again, I know plenty of other parrot family voters who are planning to switch to something completely different in round 2. I wouldn’t take the preference flow for granted. We all contain multitudes.

As of 9am (AEDT):

  • Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,584 (+32 over past hour)
  • Galah: 1,533 (+25 over past hour)

51 votes in it.

In the chasing pack:

  • Carnaby’s black-cockatoo: 1,234
  • Southern cassowary: 1,196

The eagle is cruising. Votes are pouring in – but almost equally for both birds. The gap has now slightly widened to 44. Eagle still ahead.

As of this morning, 50,000 votes have been cast. Let’s celebrate this milestone by listening to our latest Full Story podcast – which features reader call-ins, and will equally make you laugh and cry.

The battle for 10th is why we’re here. If you’ve already voted, find a friend who hasn’t. Tell them it’s eagle v galah. They’ll want to pick one. Then, after 11am, tell them to vote again.

They have been neck-and-neck this entire vote. Here’s how it’s gone down:

The galah was ahead on the morning of day 1, but then eagle overtook in the afternoon. By day 3, the galah was back – and stayed there for an incredible 8 days. But just yesterday, around noon, it struck, overhauled the galah and has been on top, by 30-40 votes ever since.

Here’s the state of play. As of 8am:

  1. Black-throated finch: 7,107
  2. Australian magpie: 3,482
  3. Laughing kookaburra: 2,958
  4. Sulphur-crested cockatoo: 2,615
  5. Australian white ibis: 2,437
  6. Superb fairywren: 2,386
  7. Tawny frogmouth: 2,293
  8. Rainbow lorikeet: 1,694
  9. Willie wagtail: 1,610
  10. Wedge-tailed eagle: 1,551
  11. Galah: 1,508

In the second round, voting will go over 6 days. Until Thursday 5pm.

Updated

Galah or eagle?

Sometimes, a few hours end up defining history. Gavrilo Princip thought he’d missed Franz Ferdinand when, a few hours later outside a deli, the Archduke’s car pulled up in front of him. In 1983, Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov’s missile warning system malfunctioned. Instead of firing back, he waited a few minutes.

In less than three hours, voting for round one of bird of the year will close. You may have missed the memo – there are two rounds this time. The top 10 birds go through. Then you get to vote again.

This makes the race for 10th crucial. And two brilliant, absolutely beautiful birds have been duking it out for weeks.

At 12pm yesterday it was the galah by 30. By 1.30pm, the wedge-tailed eagle by 14. And behind them, the carnaby’s black-cockatoo and the cassowary, lurking in striking distance.

It’s no exaggeration to say the next few hours could decide the whole election. 11th by a hair and you’re out. 10th, and you could win the whole thing.

If the galah gets up, that could split the parrot vote in the second round. If the eagle sneaks through, it could pick up votes from the cassowary, peregrine falcon and powerful owl, snowballing to victory.

It boils down to this. At 11am (AEDT), we start again. It’s a brave new world, a blank slate for any bird to seize and make their own. Ten birds will emerge, shaking off the dust, blinking in the sun. The question is, which will be there? The answer is up to you.

Updated

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