The majority of the Week 5 slate in the NFL has come and gone, with yet another electric day of Sunday football behind us.
Now? It's time for Sunday Night Football.
The 2-2 Patriots, led by quarterback Drake Maye amid a second-year resurgence, are headed to western New York for a matchup against Josh Allen and the undefeated, AFC East-leading Bills.
For Buffalo, it's a chance to continue their undefeated streak to begin the 2025 season and maintain momentum on their quest for the franchise's first Super Bowl title. For New England, meanwhile, Sunday will serve as quite the litmus test for a young roster led by first-year coach Mike Vrabel.
We're in for quite the treat in what—in all likelihood—will be the Patriots' final visit to Orchard Park's Highmark Stadium, with Buffalo planning on moving to its brand new stadium next season. Here are three bold predictions for the contest:
Drake Maye Racks Up More Total Yards Than Josh Allen
It's no secret that Josh Allen is, at a minimum, a top-two quarterback in football. Drake Maye, however, is well on his way to signal-caller supremacy.
Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, Maye not only leads the league in completion percentage (74%), but has accounted for 80.9% of the Patriots' yardage on offense—the third-most of any player in the NFL per Pro Football Focus. The second-year signal caller out of North Carolina has clearly taken a liking to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels's system.
Across the field, Allen has seemingly taken a back seat to running back James Cook in the Bills' offense, throwing for less than 215 yards in each of his last three games while Cook—who we'll get to later—ranks second in the league in rushing yards and leads it in rushing touchdowns.
Long story short? Maye has to do more for New England's offense than Allen in Buffalo. He's also more likely to be down in the game—leading to some hero ball—as he tries to put the Pats on his back.
James Cook Runs Wild on Banged Up Patriots Defense
On the aforementioned Cook, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel was blunt in his assessment of the star back this week, seemingly admitting that his team has had a hard time getting ready for his unique skillset.
"If we had somebody that could show us a look for James Cook, we'd be using him a lot," Vrabel quipped on Friday when asked about their prep for the Bills. "He's very talented with the football in his hand, they do a great job of maximizing his skill set and understanding that defensively everybody's at the point of attack, no matter where the ball starts, with him or you think it's going to go somewhere, you have to be sound, you have to have some gap discipline, certainly great efforts to get to the ball, and rarely does the first guy tackle him."
To go along with his league-leading five rushing touchdowns, Cook ranks second in the NFL in broken tackles with 12—a recipe for success against a New England team that, through Week 4, has missed 44 tackles, the seventh-most in the league according to PFF. Of the 44, over one-third have been from linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss—it'll be worth keeping an eye on how they defend against the Pro Bowl back.
Additionally, defensive end K'Lavon Chaisson has been ruled out with a knee injury, and free agent acquisition Milton Williams is banged up with an ankle. Cook should have no problem running wild against this Patriots run defense.
Mike Vrabel Outcoaches Sean McDermott
This is a call that I think sounds bolder than it actually is. Sure, McDermott has led the Bills to five consecutive AFC East championships, but Vrabel has been considered among the league's top coaches dating back to his tenure with Tennessee—and he has a chance to keep proving it on Sunday night.
Vrabel is still in his first year with a young Patriots team and, through four games, is 0-for-2 on challenges and has made a handful of questionable game management decisions. That being said, his Titans teams always showed up in primetime, even as underdogs, and I expect New England to do the same.
Buffalo, meanwhile, is an undefeated 4-0 despite an abundance of miscues on McDermott's defensive side of the ball. While the Bills rank just third in the NFL with 25 penalties taken, they seem to be winning in spite of their head man in charge. In last week’s 31–19 victory over the Saints—a game that was closer than the final score suggests—McDermott burned two of his team's timeouts in the third quarter and was also oddly conservative down the stretch, taking the ball out of Allen’s hands and kicking a field goal in the final minutes rather than trusting his All-Pro quarterback to seal the win.
If the Patriots can make this one come down to the margins, look for Vrabel to have the edge in the coaching department.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Bills vs. Patriots: Three Bold Predictions for Sunday Night's AFC East Showdown.
