Billionaire hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman argued on X this past weekend that China “can’t win a waiting game” in the deepening U.S.–China trade war. Ackman warned that every extra day of triple-digit duties pushes multinational corporations to “India, Vietnam, Mexico, the U.S. or some other country,” eroding China’s status as the world’s factory and ultimately hurting both economies.
The tweet lands as tariffs stand at historically high levels. After an early-April escalation, U.S. levies on most Chinese imports now average about 145%, while Beijing retaliated by lifting its own average rate to 125% on U.S. goods.
Ackman’s central claim — that supply chains are already voting with their feet — is borne out on the ground. It was recently reported that Apple has begun ramping iPhone output at a new Tata Electronics plant in Hosur, India, while Foxconn’s $2.6 billion Indian complex in Bengaluru is days away from pilot production. Separately, the company also announced one of the world’s largest AI server plants for Nvidia (NVDA) chips in Mexico, scheduled to open next year — another hedge against Chinese disruption.
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Small companies feel the squeeze even more acutely than Apple (AAPL) or Foxconn. An Associated Press report details U.S. retailers and game makers stranded by 145% import costs, with some impacted by half-million-dollar shipments stuck in Chinese ports.
Previously, Ackman has warned that “many small businesses will go bankrupt” if relief does not come soon. The billionaire investor argued that short-term loans or other financial relief for affected businesses might be necessary to help these companies transition to U.S.-based manufacturing.
Policy signals remain mixed. On 9 April President Donald Trump granted a 90-day pause on tariffs, leaving only 10% baseline tariffs in place to most trading partners. However, Trump explicitly excluded China and simultaneously raised Beijing’s rate to 145%. Ackman’s tweet calls instead for a mutual 180-day pause for those as well, arguing that both sides could save face by acting together.
Beijing, much like the U.S., is suspending parts of its 125 percent tariffs. This comes after the Trump administration has signed executive orders easing tariffs on things like auto manufacturing and consumer electronics. Ackman contends the reputational damage of delay means China “should be highly incentivized to make a deal as quickly as possible,” while the U.S. can afford to wait. The proposition there being: China’s manufacturers are leaving regardless. While these manufacturers might not relocate to the U.S., it’s just as harmful to China if they relocate to India or Vietnam.
Whether the hedge-fund billionaire’s prescription is heeded remains unclear, but boardrooms are already acting on his premise: diversified supply chains are becoming the norm, and the longer the current standoff lasts, the harder it will be to put the global trade relationship back together.
