The New England Patriots entered the start of the NFL’s legal tampering period — whatever that is — with the third-most cap space in the league. They did not hesitate to put that capital to use. During a whirlwind Monday the Patriots reached agreements with a number of new faces in a bevy of deals worth (potentially) north of $170 million dollars. So that begs the question:
Will it work?
Before we try and answer this question first, a quick recap. The day began with the Patriots reaching an agreement with tight end Jonnu Smith. They then added defensive tackle Davon Godchaux. Linebacker/EDGE Matthew Judon was next, followed by Jalen Mills. As day turned to night, Belichick addressed the wide receiver room, reaching deals with both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. That is a ton of player movement. They even snuck in one final deal before the night was over, adding defensive lineman Henry Anderson.
But, Mark. Will it work?
The honest response to that is: Ask me in six months. Because right now a lot of the analysis is speculative, including the grading that myself and Doug Farrar tried to assign to each move. But these are just pieces to a puzzle, and Belichick is putting that puzzle together without showing us what the finished product is supposed to look like.
So we will not know for months whether these moves are going to work, or are going to fail spectacularly.
But we can gleam a few things from them.
Free agency and the draft are the two periods of time during the NFL season when you get a true sense of how a team feels about their roster, and about the various position groups. You can say you love your tight end room during media availabilities, but making a big signing at that position says otherwise. You can say you love the wide receiver room, but adding two different players on the first day of free agency speaks volumes.
Furthermore, what a team does in free agency also illustrates what they believe their true needs are. Consider this, from Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus:
Free agency is for need
The draft is for value
If you want to plug holes in your roster, do it this week and not the end of April
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) March 15, 2021
We all love the draft, but as Renner continues to point out:
There were only 9 total rookie defenders last season that played 400+ snaps and earned grades over 65.0
The chance of finding impact rookies – especially outside the top 10 – is almost always overestimated
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) March 15, 2021
If you have a need, it is better to address it via free agency. Unless you are willing to wait and let players develop.
That might also be a lesson. Pin that thought.
So let’s walk through what Belichick might be telling us with these moves, as well as illustrating how they can work out, and how they might just fail.
What is Belichick thinking?
I have said before that trying to get into Bill Belichick’s mind is a difficult task to accomplish. You might think that someone who walked the same hallways as Belichick did at Wesleyan University, who also studied economics at the New England school, could have a window into his mind. Yet try as I might, I often fail in the endeavor.
But I do think there are things to take away from these moves.
We can start on the defensive side of the football. First, expect to see a lot of three-man surfaces next season. This is not to say that the Patriots are moving to a 3-4 as their primary defense, because as we all know in today’s NFL your primary defense is usually a sub package. But the Patriots have utilized a number of 3-3-5 and even 3-2-6 sub packages in the past. What do those require if run properly? A nose tackle in the middle that can handle the responsibilities of occupying blockers and keeping the players on the second level free. If both guards are free to climb, that poses problems for the defense.
That is the reason behind the Godchaux signing. He is coming off an injury, and yes his strength is in run defense, but Belichick is going to build around a three-man front and wants someone in the middle to handle those responsibilities. Both Adam Butler and Lawrence Guy looked better aligned as more traditional defensive tackles, and this move frees them up to operate where they work best.
Now you might wonder where Judon fits into this scenario. During his time with the Baltimore Ravens Judon showed the ability to operate both as a pure edge, with his hand in the dirt, but also as more of an off-ball linebacker, in a two-point stance with the ability to drop into coverage and play in a bit more space.
So a potential 3-3-5 package with Judon as a linebacker can become a 4-2-5 with a four-man surface in an instant. While Butler has seen time at nose tackle, he has also seen a lot of time at defensive tackle (232 snaps last season according to charting data from PFF) and when it comes to Guy, his snaps last year came both at defensive tackle, and at defensive end. When combined with Godchaux’s experience at defensive tackle, the Patriots have the flexibility to indeed move from 3-3-5 to 4-2-5 on the fly.
But again, the Patriots were not done, as they added defensive lineman Henry Anderson. Because it is important to remember that both Butler and Guy are free agents themselves, and while they might be back in New England…they might not. Anderson gives Belichick insurance at both defensive tackle and defensive end, as Anderson has seen time at both positions during his NFL career.
The other move on defense, the addition of Mills, comes as a bit of a head-scratcher. But I think this might be telling us what Belichick thinks about the safety position in New England, and in the draft. Last year the Patriots struggled to get the right safety combination in place, which was a departure from the 2018 season when they often used a three-safety package of Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon and Patrick Chung. Harmon spent last season with the Detroit Lions and Chung made the decision to opt-out, and the Patriots could not find a trio that was as effective. Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger are more in-the-box types of players, and they could not find the deep safety to pair with McCourty in the final third.
Mills can potentially be that player, and he also comes with the background of a cornerback, and you all know how much Belichick values that versatility. Those coverage skills are something that he likes to implement when he puts a safety into man coverage on an athletic tight end, as he has done in the past by using McCourty on Travis Kelce. That could be the thinking there.
It could also be a view into how Belichick views this rookie safety class. Perhaps — perhaps — he looks at Mills as a more dependable option at the position than another rookie.
Then there is the offensive side of the football, as the Patriots added a tight end in Smith and a pair of receivers in Agholor and Bourne. What can this tell us about the future of the Patriots offense?
For one, this might be a window into the return of 12 personnel in New England. After all, the Patriots drafted a pair of tight ends last year, in Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. The addition of Smith could mean that Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are envisioning a lot of two TE packages in the season ahead. At this point it is important to remember that Belichick has raved about Smith in the past, and about his blocking:
He’s just a really good tight end. Can do a lot of things. Blocks well. Runs well. Is a good receiver. Played him at tailback, he looked pretty good back there. He’s a very athletic player. Hard to tackle. Catches the ball well. (He’s) great after the catch, probably the best in the league. I mean, I can’t imagine anyone better than him after the catch.
So you can easily envision a scenario where Smith is moved around in this hypothetical 12 personnel package, with either Asiasi or Keene taking on the more traditional, in-line type of role. Or they can put both Smith and the other TE into the in-line role, given Smith’s blocking prowess. It gives the Patriots a ton of options, and forces the defense to pick their poison. Do they treat such a personnel grouping as a “heavier” group and play base? If so, New England can spread them out given Smith’s versatility. Do they treat it as a lighter package and play nickel or dime? If that happens, New England can line up and run the ball against those sub packages.
Beyond all that, the simple fact is that the Patriots have struggled to get production from the tight end position since the departure of Rob Gronkowski, and the deal with Smith is a nod towards fixing that problem.
As for the receivers, this could be a move in the direction of that 12 personnel package. Both Bourne and Agholor have spent time in the slot as well as in the “Z” receiver mold, and both skillsets are relied upon in that 12 personnel grouping. Remember last year’s discussion of Justin Jefferson, and how he struggled to beat press? That is not as big an issue when you are aligned either in the slot, or as a wide receiver in a 12 personnel package when by alignment you can create that two-way go situation. We again could be seeing something similar being carved out for the Patriots next season.
Beyond the idea of 12 personnel, even if the Patriots enter 2021 with the intention of being a heavy 11 personnel team the additions of Bourne and Agholor bring added talent to a potential three-receiver set. That might just require adding a receiver with more of an X receiver skillset via the draft to round out the receiver room. Names to watch there? Rashod Bateman from Minnesota in the first round, Nico Collins from Michigan and Dyami Brown from North Carolina on day two of the draft, and Josh Palmer on day three.
So that is what I think — stress on the word think — these moves are telling us.
Now the bigger question.
Fine, but will it work?
Again, we will know more in September and beyond than we will right now.
But here’s how this can work.
Offensively, the Patriots are indeed carving out a system built around 12 personnel, creating mismatches with the tight ends and against defenses based on how they treat that personnel grouping. An offense built around a punishing offensive line — see the recent trade for Trent Brown — and athleticism at the quarterback position, given the return of Cam Newton. When you are just looking to two different receivers in this package for production, the WR group of Agholor, Bourne, Julian Edleman, Jakobi Meyers and N’Keal Harry looks a bit better than when you’re trying to pull a three-WR group together for 11 personnel. Agholor last year showed that he can be something of a vertical threat, and Bourne has illustrated that as well. Both players have shown the ability to separate on those downfield routes, something that was truly missing from this offense last season.
In short, an offense rooted in 12 personnel looking to run the football and set up shot plays downfield that now has receivers that can separate. Concerns about Newton from a precision passing/ball placement standpoint are alleviated.
Then defensively, the Patriots have some flexibility up front and some consistency on the back end. They can adjust on the fly as necessary, they have Judon to create pressure off one edge and some emerging talents in Chase Winovich and Josh Uche on the other to create from the opposite side. They’ll get Dont’a Hightower back from his opt-out to patrol the middle of the second level, and Patrick Chung back to help solidify the safety position. This is all premised on the addition of Godchaux up front to solidify the middle of the defensive line, freeing up Butler and Guy to play more at the tackle spot and sometimes moving Guy to the edge opposite Judon to implement four-man surfaces.
That’s how this works on paper.
How does it fall to pieces? Agholor and Bourne’s big seasons a year ago were a function of different schemes and were more of a mirage. Judon fails to live up to the expectations, and his time in New England mirrors another time when the Patriots signed a defender from Baltimore: Adalius Thomas. Smith cannot replicate what he did under Arthur Smith in Tennessee and — this is a big part of the equation — what we saw last year from Cam Newton was not a worst-case scenario, but rather what he is now as a quarterback. That, coupled with the struggles of other quarterback options, might ultimately doom these moves.
Because in the end, what we might truly be learning right now is that the presence of Tom Brady masked all manners of sin when it came to roster construction. The Patriots of the past could miss on moves like the Adalius Thomas signing and still make runs to conference championships and Super Bowls because they have the ultimate fixer in the form of Brady.
Without that, they need to be perfect from a roster construction standpoint.
Time will tell if they have been these past few hours.
