Bill Belichick rejected all questions on Saturday about his fourth-down decision against the Indianapolis Colts when he kicked the ball from the 7-yard line to trim the deficit to three points, rather than go for it and potentially take the lead.
Analytics showed the Patriots had an edge if they’d gone for it. Statistically speaking, it made sense to try for the touchdown. But considering the Patriots’ history of avoiding third-and-long and fourth-and-long — and their lack of success in those situations — New England decided to take the field goal.
Belichick was far more open to discussing the decision on Monday.
“I didn’t feel great about converting fourth-and-goal from the 7,” Belichick said. “Had there been less time and the situation been different, there’s a point where you would go for it or I would go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 7, absolutely. I didn’t think, in that game situation, that that would have been the best decision. I thought that would have passed up three points, and then it would have taken two touchdowns.
“At the end of the game, being able to, especially in a dome, have a chance at a 50-plus-yard field goal, I think it’s a lot better chance than scoring a touchdown and having a six-point differential as opposed to a three-point differential relative to the chances of converting a fourth-and-7. But at some point, I definitely would have kept the offense on the field on fourth-and-7 with less time or no timeouts.”
Belichick’s thought process was that the Patriots would still be in the game, even if the Colts came away with a field goal on the ensuing drive. With a Colts’ field goal, the Patriots would have needed a touchdown. If the Patriots held the Colts without points, then New England only needed a field goal to send the game into overtime. It’s conservative decision-making. But it’s not necessarily wrong, particularly with how this team is constructed with a rookie quarterback and an experienced and talented defense.
“It’s still a two-possession game, and now it’s a field goal,” Belichick said Monday in a video conference, “I thought there was enough time left that we would have enough possessions to be able to score 10 points, which we conceivably could have.”
The problem, however, was that New England allowed a 67-yard touchdown to Jonathan Taylor. That effectively ended the game.
