When billionaire Bill Ackman quietly built a $104 million position in Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:HTZ) this summer, few noticed. It was a small 0.76% slice of Pershing Square Capital's portfolio — easy to miss next to his billion-dollar stakes in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) and Hilton Hotels Corp (NYSE:HLT).
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But after Hertz shocked Wall Street with its first profit in nearly two years, that "small" position suddenly looks a lot like a familiar Ackman setup: the Chipotle moment playbook all over again.
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Buying What Everyone Else Hates
In 2016, Ackman bet on Chipotle when it was the most toxic brand in America — food safety scandals, plummeting sales, and a stock no one wanted to touch. His move wasn't about catching a bounce; it was about backing a fixable business. He pushed for leadership changes, operational discipline, and menu simplicity. Within a few years, Chipotle's stock had exploded more than 600%.
Fast-forward to 2025: Hertz fits the same contrarian mold. Once a pandemic-era bankruptcy meme, the rental-car giant stumbled again after its failed EV pivot. But under new CEO Gil West, Hertz is finally finding its footing. The company just posted 12 cents EPS on $2.48 billion in revenue, marking its first profit since 2023 — and igniting a 40% single-day surge.
The Contrarian Formula
Ackman's advantage has always been seeing value in businesses that look unsalvageable but have good bones. Like Chipotle, Hertz still has a powerful brand, recurring demand, and operational leverage that magnify minor improvements. And with 43% short interest, it has something else Chipotle once had — a wall of disbelief.
As West puts it, Hertz's turnaround comes from "back-to-basics" execution — cutting fleet costs, refreshing cars, and focusing on profitable routes instead of flashy bets. It's the kind of operational work Ackman loves to back and let compound quietly.
The Bigger Picture
Ackman didn't buy Hertz for the headlines — but now the story's catching up to him. Just as Chipotle's recovery started as a whisper, Hertz's might too. The market still sees a meme stock; Ackman sees a cash-flow machine in rehab. If history repeats, this could be his next 10x patience play.
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