A powerful Super El Niño — the devastating weather phenomenon linked to the catastrophic 1876–1878 global famine crisis nearly 150 years ago — could be developing once again, according to some forecasters.
According to reports, there is around a 70% chance of El Niño conditions developing by June. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño events are associated with higher global temperatures and major disruptions in weather patterns worldwide. If a strong or “super” El Niño develops in 2026, experts fear it could weaken India’s monsoon, potentially reducing rainfall to nearly 92% of the long-period average, while also triggering food inflation and severe stress on the agricultural sector.
What is a Super El Niño?
A Super El Niño is an exceptionally strong El Niño event in which sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (the Niño 3.4 region) rise at least 2°C above the long-term average for three consecutive months. Such events can disrupt weather systems worldwide, triggering droughts, floods, heatwaves, and extreme storms far beyond the effects of a regular El Niño.
Notable Super El Niño events occurred in 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16, all of which caused widespread climate disruptions, crop failures, and economic losses across multiple continents. However, some climate experts now believe the upcoming event could become one of the strongest ever recorded.
Forecasters are increasingly warning that a major El Niño could emerge in 2026 after the current La Niña conditions fade. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has projected significant warming in the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns over a potentially severe global climate event.
El Niño develops when equatorial Pacific waters warm by at least 0.5°C above normal levels, altering jet streams and rainfall patterns across the world. A “super” El Niño is declared when temperatures exceed 2°C above average.
ECMWF projections reportedly show a 98% chance of at least a moderate El Niño by August 2026, an 80% probability of a strong event, and a 22% chance of it reaching “super” intensity.
“All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event,” climate scientist Daniel Swain said, according to a Severe Weather report. “This is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026–27.”
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also indicated that La Niña conditions are likely to weaken soon, potentially paving the way for El Niño later this year, although spring forecasts remain uncertain.
Why scientists are concerned
El Niño events are often associated with extreme weather worldwide, including prolonged droughts, intense rainfall, deadly floods, heatwaves, and stronger storms. Combined with human-driven climate change, such events can push global temperatures to record highs.
The previous El Niño contributed to 2023 and 2024 becoming among the hottest years ever recorded globally. Some forecasters now fear the upcoming event could rival the powerful 1997–98 Super El Niño, one of the strongest in modern history.
The impact is already beginning to worry farmers in vulnerable regions. In Malaysia’s major rice-producing belt, drought-hit farms have delayed planting schedules and strained irrigation systems, prompting authorities to prepare cloud-seeding operations. Farmers say rising fuel and irrigation costs are already making cultivation difficult even before a potentially severe El Niño develops.
Why the 1877 El Niño became infamous
The 1876–1878 El Niño remains one of the deadliest climate disasters in recorded history. The unusually intense warming of the Pacific Ocean disrupted global weather systems and triggered devastating droughts, famines, and disease outbreaks across Asia, Africa, Australia, and parts of the Americas.
During strong El Niño years:
- Monsoons weaken
- Droughts intensify across Asia, Africa, Australia, and Brazil
- Heavy rainfall and flooding strike parts of the Americas
The 1877 event was particularly severe and led to:
- Massive crop failures
- Multi-year droughts
- Widespread famine
- Disease outbreaks
- Economic collapse in several regions
Historians estimate that the climate-linked famines of 1876–1878 killed tens of millions of people globally, especially in colonial territories where relief efforts were inadequate or exploitative.
Impact on India
India suffered one of the worst humanitarian disasters in its history during the Great Famine of 1876–1878 under British colonial rule. Failed monsoons devastated agriculture across large parts of southern and western India, causing widespread starvation and disease.
Millions are believed to have died as food shortages worsened and colonial policies failed to provide adequate relief. The famine remains one of the darkest chapters in India’s colonial history and is often cited as an example of how climate shocks, combined with political failures, can turn natural disasters into mass tragedies.
