We have already looked at what Ohio State should root for this week. As the Buckeyes have gone undefeated until now and the Playoff picture is clearer, Ohio State’s interests are becoming simpler. There is plenty for the rest of the Big Ten to root for, though, especially as the bowl picture becomes clearer. There isn’t much for the lower Big Ten teams to root for, so I’m only going to deal with those teams that are (potentially) bowl-eligible. I will go more or less in reverse order of the current Big Ten standings, but Indiana is by far the most interesting, so I’ll deal with them before Illinois.
Michigan State Spartans
This is simple for the Spartans. Win this week and go bowling. Depending on what fans want in a bowl game, other rooting interests can be different. Do you want to face another 6-6 P5 team? Root for North Carolina and Boston College to win this week. (And I guess for Clemson to lose to South Carolina to potentially free up another ACC bowl spot.) If you’d rather see Michigan State play a more winnable game against a replacement team, then root against North Carolina and Boston College instead.
Indiana Hoosiers
The last time Indiana was in anything approximating a major bowl game was the 1990 Peach Bowl. Well, due to a weird confluence of circumstances, the Hoosiers are looking at an Outback Bowl bid this year. How and why could the Big Ten’s seventh-best team end up in a New Years’ Day (and the conference’s third/fourth-best) bowl game? Let’s break it down.
The Big Ten’s current six-year bowl contract states that each bowl must have at least five different teams over the six year. The only Big Ten bowl partner that has to worry about meeting this criteria is the Outback Bowl. The Outback Bowl took Iowa both last year and after the 2016 season, and therefore has only had four Big Ten teams in the last five year. The other three teams were Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern won’t be in any bowl game this year, obviously. However, this means that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa cannot be selected for this year’s Outback Bowl.
So, what other teams would be selected in front of Indiana? The other top-level options are Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota. It seems nearly impossible for Ohio State to not make an NY6 Bowl. So all Indiana needs is for Penn State and Minnesota to be selected for NY6 bowls or the Citrus Bowl, and Indiana is the only real choice left for the Outback Bowl.
What should Indiana fans look for to get this outcome?
First of all, Ohio State should beat Michigan to keep the Wolverines out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowl pool. Then Minnesota should beat Wisconsin. If those two happen, Indiana is a near-lock for the Outback Bowl. The Ohio State-Minnesota winner will make the Playoff and the loser heads to the Rose Bowl; Penn State will either be in the Orange Bowl or Citrus Bowl. And even if Big Ten bowls slide up a slot or two (say, if both Ohio State and Minnesota make the Playoff and/or if Penn State gets the Cotton Bowl), Indiana will still get the Outback Bowl. Michigan and/or Wisconsin would move up into the next NY6 bowl or Citrus Bowl, which still leaves Indiana as the best option for the Outback Bowl.
In fact, even if Indiana loses to Purdue, the Hoosiers are possibly headed to the Outback Bowl. Illinois would be competition for the spot, though, so Northwestern taking out Illinois would be important. Of course, there is a chance the Outback Bowl would request a 6-6 Michigan State team (or Nebraska) over Indiana, so Indiana should just take care of business and beat Purdue.
If, however, Wisconsin beats Minnesota or Michigan beats Ohio State, then things get complicated. As long as Penn State or Minnesota doesn’t get pushed out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowls, Indiana will get the Outback. If, however, one of those two falls far enough, that team will almost certainly get priority for the Outback Bowl over Indiana.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois is very likely locked into the Pinstripe Bowl (very slight change at the Redbox Bowl). While the Big Ten bowl pool doesn’t officially have any real hierarchy, in reality those are the two lowest. And it makes sense–those will also have the weaker opponents, which will provide better games. The Pinstripe Bowl will have a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, while the Redbox Bowl will feature a middle-of-the-pack Pac 12 team. Either should be a good opponent for this Illinois team.
If Illinois fans want a more prestigious bowl, though, just look at everything in the last section about Indiana. Root for all of that, plus an Indiana loss to Purdue. If that happens, 7-5 Illinois might just be the Outback Bowl’s (and the Big Ten’s) preferred choice.
Next… Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan
Iowa Hawkeyes
Assuming the Hawkeyes beat Nebraska, they are in a very good bowl position. They won’t get into the NY6 or the Citrus Bowl, and, as described above, can’t be taken for the Outback Bowl. Win or lose, Iowa is looking at the Holiday Bowl, Gator Bowl, or Redbox Bowl. With a loss to Nebraska, Iowa will almost certainly go to the Redbox Bowl. Other than that, though, it could really be any game. Either the Holiday or Gator Bowl will provide a great matchup, while the Redbox Bowl likely will get a weaker team.
It’s hard to go too in-depth as to who the likely opponents for those games are, though two SEC teams in the CFP will likely mean a weaker Gator Bowl opponent. I’ll let fans decide for themselves whether that’s worth it.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin, like Iowa (and Michigan) is locked into Gator, Holiday, or Redbox Bowl if chalk holds this week. Lose to Minnesota, and those are the possible destinations. (Again, it is technically possible that all three of these also get the Pinstripe Bowl, but it would be very surprising if any team but Illinois–or maybe Indiana if the Hoosiers lose this weekend–goes to the Pinstripe Bowl.)
If Wisconsin beats Minnesota this week, though, then there are real possibilities. The Badgers will go to the Rose Bowl if they win out, or maybe the CFP if there’s enough chaos. To reach the CFP, Wisconsin definitely needs either Baylor or Oklahoma to lose this week. In addition to that, a Michigan win over Ohio State would be very important. Auburn beating Alabama is likely necessary, and Clemson losing wouldn’t hurt.
If Wisconsin can beat Minnesota, then either the Orange, Cotton, or Citrus Bowl is a definite possibility. For this to happen, as many teams as possible need to clear out of Wisconsin’s way. Remember, jumping these teams may not be enough, because a loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game could drop the Badgers below these teams. Florida losing to Florida State would help, as would another loss from Baylor, Utah, and Oklahoma. This is where things get contradictory, though. While wins by Michigan and Auburn help Wisconsin’s Playoff dream, they would hurt Wisconsin’s shot at an NY6 Bowl if the Badgers can’t beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
So, Wisconsin fans will need to make an honest assessment this weekend. Do you root for Ohio State and Alabama, knowing that a loss to Ohio State still keeps NY6 hopes alive–and being okay with a Rose Bowl bid if you do beat the Buckeyes? Or do you go for broke, and pull for that one situation that could get you into the CFP?
Michigan Wolverines
I’m not going to lie, it’s weird to write about what Michigan should root for on an Ohio State site. The Wolverines are in the Big Ten, though, so they get mentioned.
Thankfully for me, though, Michigan doesn’t have too much to do care about this weekend. Beat Ohio State, and the Wolverines will get an NY6 Bowl. In quite a twist of irony, the Wolverines should then root for Ohio State next week–because a convincing Ohio State win over Minnesota or Wisconsin would put the Wolverines into the Rose Bowl.
If the Wolverines lose to Ohio State, then it’s either the Gator, Holiday, or Redbox Bowl. As long as Michigan looks somewhat strong against Ohio State, the destination is most likely not the Redbox Bowl.
Next… Penn State and Minnesota
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is in pretty good position to get a Rose Bowl bid. The Nittany Lions would like to see Ohio State beat Michigan, since the Wolverines would have a better resume, even though Penn State won the head-to-head matchup. The one obstacle could be Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have a slightly weaker resume, but they did beat Penn State. Wisconsin beating Minnesota would possibly take care of that, as would an Ohio State blowout of Minnesota. Basically, Penn State needs to see Minnesota lose a game by a decent margin. (If we get some chaos that leads to both Minnesota and Ohio State reaching the CFP, then Penn State would be a lock for the Rose Bowl as well.)
If Minnesota goes to the Rose Bowl, then the Nittany Lions will likely need a drop of help to get an NY6 bid. If the SEC only gets on Playoff team, then Georgia or Alabama will get a Sugar Bowl bid, and the next will appear in the Orange Bowl. After that, Florida currently holds the Cotton Bowl spot. So Penn State should have a decent look at the Cotton Bowl if either the SEC gets two Playoff teams or if Florida State beats Florida. Other than that, Penn State might stay behind a Utah team that loses to Auburn in the Pac 12 Championship Game, so Utah winning two more games would help.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Other than hoping that Rutgers beats Penn State, Minnesota’s position really is a simple one. Win out and make the Playoff. Lose a game and keep it close, and the Rose Bowl is a toss-up.
The one thing that Minnesota really doesn’t want to see is Michigan beat Ohio State. If that happens, the Wolverines would almost certainly be ranked above Minnesota and poach that Rose Bowl bid. Other than that, Minnesota just has to beat Wisconsin and not get blown out by Ohio State to guarantee a Rose Bowl bid.
If the Gophers do get blown out and fall behind Penn State, they should still reach the Citrus Bowl. If they end up behind both Penn State and Wisconsin, the Outback Bowl is still a strong result by Minnesota standards, though it will be disappointing after where this season was a few weeks ago.
