Let’s begin with the folly that is the AP Top 25 poll in November.
At Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the latest poll are LSU and Alabama. God bless ’em. Rah-rah, SEC.
But those same teams are Nos. 2 and 3 — behind a little scarlet-and-gray engine from a little Big Ten school by the name of Ohio State — in the first College Football Playoff rankings, which were revealed Tuesday.
You don’t need me to tell you which of those numbers are relevant, and which aren’t, as we move into the home stretch of the regular season. This column will use CFP rankings only from here forward, because doing otherwise would be a meaningless bow to an outdated tradition.
But that’s more than enough preamble, because — let’s not kid ourselves — No. 2 LSU (+6½) at No. 3 Alabama (2:30 p.m., Ch. 2) is the biggest, best thing to happen all season. And the victor likely will blow the Buckeyes (who are No. 3 in the AP poll, not that we care) right out of the top spot anyway.
The Big Al-sized question right in front of our faces: Do we already pretty much know how this matchup between the Tigers and Crimson Tide is going to go down?
Goodness, let’s hope not. But it’s undeniable that this great SEC West rivalry has lost a lot of luster in recent years, not unlike Ohio State’s own rivalry with Michigan. That’s what happens when one side dominates the other for an extended period.
After leaving LSU for Alabama heading into the 2007 season, Nick Saban lost three of his first five games against his former school. Les Miles and the Tigers couldn’t keep up, though, losing five straight head-to-head before Saban’s successor was canned. Miles’ replacement, Ed Orgeron, is 0-3 in the series, bringing the Tide’s winning streak to eight.
Repeatedly when facing the Tide, LSU’s offenses have gone bust. The Tigers have failed to score more than 17 points in any of those eight losses, and they’ve been shut out twice already under Orgeron.
“But this is the best football team we’ve had going into this game,” Orgeron said. “What happened in the past has nothing to do with this. This is a new game, a new week, a new football team.”
LSU can’t be discounted because its offense, led by quarterback Joe Burrow, has blossomed into one of the best in the land. Burrow — an Ohio State transfer — has gaudy passing numbers (2,805 yards, 30 touchdowns) and a baddest-dude-on-the-field persona to go with them. By a wide margin, he’s the MVP through this point of the college season.
Burrow can match the Tide’s Tua Tagovailoa — expected to play after Oct. 20 ankle surgery — throw for throw, and his receivers can match Tagovailoa’s, too. Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith and Henry Ruggs III are the stars of what some believe is the best receiver group in Alabama history, but LSU’s Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall Jr. are their statistical equals.
Both teams have productive running games. The defenses are comparable, too: packed with elite athletes, if a tad underwhelming to date. The coaches? Well, Saban is the college game’s Bill Belichick. He doesn’t always out-prepare the other guy, but it usually seems like it.
“You can tell by the rankings that it looks like we’ve made up some ground,” Oregeron said. “But we’ve still got to beat them. [We’ve] still got to go through them to win the SEC West and get us to the SEC championship.
“We’ve had some tests this year, and we’ve answered the bell. I do believe we have tremendous leadership. I do believe we’re well equipped to deal with these guys. I do believe it’s going to be a great game.”
I do, too, but Big Al doesn’t. Roll Tide, 34-31.
In other Week 9 action:
No. 4 Penn State (-6½) at No. 17 Minnesota (11 a.m., Ch. 7): Gophers coach P.J. Fleck has a brand-new seven-year contract, but does he have the boat-rowers to upset the balance of power in the Big Ten?
Both teams are 8-0, but there’s clearly a sizable gap in the eyes of the playoff selection committee. That’s got a lot to do with the Gophers’ newness to this November-relevance thing, and also a lot to do with their soft schedule so far. After Penn State come division rivals Iowa and Wisconsin, with a trip to Northwestern in between.
Row the Boat? PSU’s wicked defense rocks it. Nittany Lions by 10.
No. 12 Baylor (-2) at TCU (11 a.m., FS1): The 8-0 Bears are Minnesota’s cousins from Big 12 country. Do they really belong in the playoff hunt? TCU is only 4-4, but it has won four straight in the teams’ annual series and doesn’t have to stretch at all to match the Bears’ talent. Frogs rain on BU’s parade.
No. 18 Iowa (+9½) at No. 13 Wisconsin (3 p.m., Fox-32): The Hawkeyes (6-2) and their disappearing-act offense aren’t out of the Big Ten West race. Nor are the Badgers (6-2), despite their face plant after a dominant first half to the season. Slugfest or snoozefest? Both. Badgers, 16-13.
Iowa State (+14½) at No. 9 Oklahoma (7 p.m., Fox-32): The Sooners (7-1) are officially in playoff audition mode; piling on the points is a must move. But the Cyclones (5-3) are dangerous offensively, stingy defensively and just crazy enough to think they can win in Norman because that’s what they did last time they were there. Back and forth they go — for a half, before OU puts the pedal down and covers.
My favorite favorite: No. 6 Georgia (-15½) vs. Missouri (6 p.m., ESPN): The Tigers — 0-3 on the road — lost at Kentucky by 22 last game out. According to our sources, Kentucky is no Georgia.
My favorite underdog: North Carolina State (+32½) vs. No. 5 Clemson (6:30 p.m., Ch. 7): The champs will want to win by a million after being left out of the first playoff top four, and they’ll probably start fast because of it. But the Wolfpack are a different team at home, where they’ve yet to lose. Upset? Heck no. But a cover by the ’dogs.
Last week: 5-2 straight-up, 4-3 vs. the spread.
Season to date: 50-22 straight-up, 41-30-1 vs. the spread.
THE LOCALS
PURDUE AT NORTHWESTERN
The facts: 11 a.m., BTN, 720-AM.
The records: Purdue 3-6, 2-4 Big Ten; Northwestern 1-7, 0-6 Big Ten.
The storyline: This isn’t the Wildcats’ last chance at a second victory — UMass visits Ryan Field next week — but finally cracking into the win column in conference play sure would be nice. That’s easier said than done, though, in light of their herculean struggles offensively. For crying out loud, the ’Cats are the only team in the country that’s averaging fewer than 10 points per game. Why are they favored again?
The line: Wildcats by 2.
Greenberg’s pick: Purdue, 21-17.
ILLINOIS AT MICHIGAN STATE
The facts: 2:30 p.m., FS1, 890-AM.
The records: Illinois 5-4, 3-3 Big Ten; MSU 4-4, 2-3 Big Ten.
The storyline: It’s all about that bowl game for the Illini. It’ll take one more win — at MSU, at Iowa or back at home against Northwestern — to make it happen, but no one in Lovie Smith’s program feels like waiting. A season-saving three-game winning streak has made the Illini greedy, a very good thing. This isn’t the first rodeo, though, for the Spartans and their terrific defense.
The line: Spartans by 15.
Greenberg’s pick: MSU, 23-14.
NO. 15 NOTRE DAME AT DUKE
The facts: 6:30 p.m., ACC Network, 1000-AM.
The records: Notre Dame 6-2; Duke 4-4, 2-3 ACC.
The storyline: Last time the teams met, in South Bend in 2016, Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones — now an NFL starter — led his 21-point-underdog team to a shocking 38-35 victory. Brian Kelly tore into his team for its effort after that game, and the Irish coach no doubt used that experience as a teaching moment in preparing for this matchup. It’s Duke’s first opportunity to host Notre Dame in 58 years, the sort of special occasion that is sure to create a big-game atmosphere at Wallace Wade Stadium.
The line: Irish by 8.
Greenberg’s pick: Notre Dame, 31-21.
