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Benzinga
Benzinga
Piero Cingari

Big Bank Stocks Soared In 2025—But This Earnings Season Could Shake Things Up

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Wall Street's biggest banks have rallied hard in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500 with an average 18% year-to-date gain, but as second-quarter earnings roll in starting July 15, analysts warn the easy gain may already be priced in.

In a note shared Wednesday, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala said this earnings season may represent a “breather” for the group.

While structural tailwinds remain strong, especially for names like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC), the absence of fresh catalysts in the second half could slow the pace of gains unless earnings surprises deliver.

Bank YTD return as of July 9, 2025
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) 22.94%
Citigroup Inc. 22.4%
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 13.84
Wells Fargo & Company 17.44
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) 19.86
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) 7.83

JPMorgan Sets The Bar—But It's Already High

According to Poonawala, JPMorgan is expected to post earnings per share of $4.48 for the second quarter, slightly above consensus.

Net interest income is expected at $11.96 billion, up 3.4% quarter over quarter, with FY25 guidance revised higher to $95.2 billion.

CFO Jeremy Barnum said 2025 net interest income might "end up a little better, maybe by $1 billion," reflecting fewer expected Fed cuts. But with JPMorgan stock already up sharply by 19% year to date, the market is wondering if the near-term upside is limited.

Citi And Wells Fargo: Underdogs With Upside?

Citigroup could be one of the most interesting stories this quarter. While its second-quarter EPS estimate was trimmed to $1.62 by Bank of America, focus will be on whether its multi-year restructuring plan is finally bearing fruit.

Citigroup's trading revenues, adjusted for a $400 million gain from the sale of Visa shares, are expected to grow more than 17% year over year. The bank reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $83.1 billion to $84.1 billion.

Wells Fargo & Co. is entering its first full quarter without the Fed-imposed asset cap. Second-quarter EPS is estimated at $1.42, with full-year net interest income projected at $48.5 billion, representing 1.1% year-over-year growth.

Capital Markets Slowdown A Drag On Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs?

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs face tougher comps. Morgan Stanley's second-quarter EPS was cut to $1.96 due to higher provisions and lower net interest income. Still, the bank is seen as stable, supported by strong equity trading and its high-performing wealth management arm, which contributes around 40% of earnings.

Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, is forecast to post an EPS of $9.74, slightly above the consensus.

Strength in trading (+7% YoY) and improving M&A activity are offsetting weaker asset management results. The bank has a $40 billion buyback program and increased dividends to $4.00 per share, reflecting confidence in future performance.

BNY Mellon and Northern Trust: M&A Buzz Builds

M&A chatter is swirling around The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:BK) and Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ:NTRS). BNY's Q2 EPS was raised to $1.80, as deposit strength lifts full-year NII growth to 6.8% year over year.

Northern Trust is expected to deliver $2.08 in second-quarter EPS, driven by a strong wealth management business (accounting for 50% of profits) and deposit inflows.

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

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