If you asked someone to predict how the Big 12 will play out in 2025, it would be a trick question. It’s an impossible task to predict something so totally unpredictable—just what this parity-filled conference is nowadays.
You might as well pick names out of a hat to determine an order of finish. That’s not just because Arizona State won the conference last year despite being picked 16th in the now-defunct preseason poll. Truly any result is conceivable every weekend, and the dangers of going on the road are even more perilous given some of the home venues that teams benefit from. There are great coaches, even better teams this season and plenty of quarterbacks to build around. If you’re looking for fun this season, just turn on any random Big 12 game because there’s a good chance of it coming down to the final few minutes.
A larger question the conference must deal with is whether this amalgamation of equality can produce regular CFP contenders that can do more than just scare an SEC or Big Ten team. There are some programs capable of making that leap this season, but only if they can survive the weekly grind.
No matter how it all transpires, it’s safe to say it won’t be boring by any stretch.
CFP contenders
Arizona State
The reigning champions will have to go from hunter to the hunted, and they’re fully embracing the high expectations around Tempe, Ariz., in 2025. QB Sam Leavitt is back to shoulder the load on offense with the departure of Cam Skattebo, but the signal-caller will have no shortage of weapons to throw to (WR Jordyn Tyson) or hand off to (Army transfer Kanye Udoh is a brick house coming down hill). The defense returns mostly intact and should take another step, especially against a schedule that might be the most manageable among these playoff contenders.
Kansas State
In a league that yo-yoes so much from season to season, it’s nice to rely on the consistency produced by coach Chris Klieman and a staff that has been around the block plenty. This season’s edition of the Wildcats should be better equipped to cut down on turnovers and survive in close games with QB Avery Johnson back with far more experience under his belt. A dangerous dual threat, Johnson has the potential to get to New York for the Heisman and will benefit from a slate of weapons outside and in the backfield that will keep opposing coordinators up at night. There are some key pieces that need to be replaced along the offensive line and in the secondary, but this team can stamp itself as one of the Big 12 favorites if it beats Iowa State in Week Zero.
Texas Tech
You certainly can’t fault Texas Tech for trying, using the rare opportunity provided by NIL and the gap in rules before revenue sharing began to assemble what might be the most expensive roster in the country. Depth is impressive in key areas along both lines and there’s a ton of skill position talent that has serious upside. The Red Raiders have a lot of faith in QB Behren Morton to get the team to their first Big 12 title game, and the addition of two new coordinators should smooth over some of the issues Texas Tech experienced last season in coming up just short. If the schedule was more favorable, you would pencil in the Red Raiders with a berth in Arlington, Texas. But until you see it on the field, there will be some reservations about this group actually getting over the hump.
Baylor
This was one of the hotter teams in the country down the stretch last season. There’s a lot of momentum around the Bears thanks to the development of QB Sawyer Robertson. The offense is mostly back and could make yet another leap into being one of the best in the conference. The defense needs to tighten up, but if there’s one area that you would have some faith in Dave Aranda solving, it’s on that side of the ball. The schedule is difficult, but if they can knock off Auburn at home in the opener and play SMU tough on the road, they’ll have some flexibility in league play.
Iowa State
Last year was the best in school history for the Cyclones and yet you can’t help but think that getting blown out in the Big 12 title game left a bad taste in their mouths. Rocco Becht is back at quarterback and is one of the most accomplished in the league, but he’ll need to find chemistry quickly with a slew of new targets at receiver after his favorite go-tos departed for the NFL. The defense should be much improved too given how bad the injury luck was in 2024, but a tough schedule could make getting back to 11 wins a much steeper climb than it was a year ago.
Utah
The Utes had a rough introduction to the Big 12 last year as they suffered their first losing season in over a decade, but they’re primed to make a massive step forward for no other reason than simply having a quarterback to rely on to complete a forward pass. Dynamic dual-threat Devon Dampier arrives from New Mexico along with OC Jason Beck, and they have a chance to put last year’s struggles on that side of the ball well behind them in Salt Lake City. The offensive line features two potential first-round picks, the defense will once again be stout and there’s a good chance that they can make a huge leap into contention they expected when joining the Big 12.
Team on the rise
Kansas
At times last season, it felt like the Jayhawks were a bit cursed given how they managed to find losses in one-score games early on. But they wound up turning the ship around and played a massive role in sorting out the Big 12 title game race despite missing out on a bowl game. QB Jalon Daniels appears healthy for the first time in a while going into the season and is one of the best around when he’s clicking. He forms quite the backfield tandem with the underrated Daniel Hishaw Jr. If the defense hits on all their portal additions, this could be a dangerous group in 2025, especially given that they return to their home stadium after a full year away from Lawrence, Kan.
Team on the downslope
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy usually does miracles when nothing is expected of his Oklahoma State teams, but even he admits he has no clue about how his overhauled roster will perform this season after the lowest point of his tenure in 2024 saw them go 0–9 in conference play. There are two new veteran coordinators who will hope to make progress on both sides of the ball, but the question marks dot pretty much every area of the program. Momentum in Stillwater, Okla., is virtually zero and it would surprise nobody if this winds up being Gundy’s final swan song before stepping aside.
New coaches
Scott Frost, UCF
What’s old is very much new again in the Big 12 as both of the “new” coaches in the league are actually retreads at their “old” schools. Frost is probably carrying a slightly higher profile given the way his tenure at Nebraska ended, but he’s excited to return to Orlando to try and rekindle some of the magic from his first stint. The roster turns over significantly so Year 1 might be rough, but there’s a lot of optimism over this reunion long term.
Rich Rodriguez, West Virginia
RichRod is fresh off bringing Jacksonville State from the FCS ranks to a Conference USA title and gets back into a Power 4 job at a familiar place in West Virginia. He’s buried some of the feelings associated with his acrimonious departure from Morgantown, W.Va., over a decade ago and leaned fully into getting the band back together with the likes of Jeff Casteel, Pat White and Noel Devine among those on his coaching staff. Luring DC Zac Alley away from Oklahoma was a massive coup. This has all the makings of a team that winds up being dangerous at the end of the season even if it takes awhile to mesh early on.
Conference power rankings
- Arizona State
- Kansas State
- Texas Tech
- Utah
- Baylor
- Iowa State
- BYU
- TCU
- Kansas
- Cincinnati
- Colorado
- Houston
- Arizona
- West Virginia
- UCF
- Oklahoma State
Heisman contenders
Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt (+2000 on FanDuel)
Leavitt was a breath of fresh air for the Sun Devils under center and was excellent in his first year as a starter by throwing for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and only six picks. He really hit his stride down the stretch and has that extra bit of moxie that only adds to his game. Leavitt will have more on his shoulders in 2025 and will benefit from being one of the most recognizable names in the Big 12 to help him in a quest to get to New York.
Transfer talk
Edge David Bailey, Stanford to Texas Tech
Bailey was one of the most sought-after players in the portal after he left Stanford. It’s not hard to see what the former freshman All-American brings to the table with a great blend of speed and power off the edge. He got 14.5 sacks on the Farm despite not playing on a great defense and should benefit from much more talent around him.
Edge Romello Height, Georgia Tech to Texas Tech
Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire thinks the addition of Bailey has overshadowed Height, but believes he’s got the best tandem in the country that will make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks on every snap. Height has been all over the country—this will be his fourth school in six years—and brings some rare length off the edge for what could be a real breakout campaign.
DL Jeheim Oatis, Alabama to Colorado
Big men are rare to find all over the country so it’s notable the Buffs landed Oatis to build around up front after he started double-digit games for an SEC program. If he ups his consistency, the big tackle is a potential all-conference performer.
QB Jake Retzlaff, BYU to Tulane
It would be remiss if we didn’t mention one transfer out of the Big 12 that certainly changes the outlook for one contender as an off-field lawsuit and potential honor code violation saw BYU’s starter make the move to New Orleans with just weeks to go before fall camp began. He came up clutch several times for the Cougars in 2024. There will be a lot of pressure on Treyson Bourguet, Bear Bachmeier or McCae Hillstead to replace Retzlaff under center.
Fab freshmen
Kansas State TE Linkon Cure, No. 37 recruit (four stars) in 247 Sports’ composite
Cure is one of the highest-rated players to ever sign with Kansas State, and hopes are high that he’ll be able to step in right away and contribute. The offense loves to utilize multiple-TE sets and the freshman’s athleticism could see him occupy a variety of roles in order to get him on the field right away.
Colorado QB Julian Lewis, No. 50 recruit (four stars)
A former USC commit out of Georgia, Lewis was a huge recruiting coup for Deion Sanders and looks like the face of the program in Boulder, Colo. He will compete early on with Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter, but it feels like only a matter of time before he gets handed the reins.
Bottom line
Flipping a coin might be the best way to figure out the Big 12 this season, which has every team pretty closely compacted from top to the very bottom. There’s been a lot of talk about advancing more than one program to the CFP moving forward but in order for that to happen, they’ll need someone to emerge from a chaos that should be fun to watch but miserable to live and die by from week to week for all 16 fan bases.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Big 12 Football Preview: Conference Will Be Unpredictable Again.
