FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Democrat Joe Biden with an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac reported Biden had support of 51% of likely voters compared with Trump's 40%.
That's an improvement for Biden since a Sept. 3 Quinnipiac Poll when he was ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points in Florida, 48% to 45%. Combined with Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Iowa, Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a written analysis Wednesday that "the president's hopes for reelection are growing dimmer by the day."
But for many reasons, it's a mistake to take one poll and use it to project the result when the votes are counted. It's far more accurate, experts say, to view Quinnipiac's poll in the context of other surveys.
A day before the Quinnipiac results, another high-quality poll, a Suffolk University/USA Today Florida survey released Tuesday, had Trump and Biden tied at 45%.
Suffolk and Quinnipiac are both top-tier pollsters. Analysts at FiveThirtyEight give Suffolk an "A" rating and Quinnipiac a "B+" for data gathering and accuracy.
Polling experts say the best way to see what's going on is to look at polling averages, which can moderate the quirks that might affect one particular survey.
The FiveThirtyEight average of public opinion polls in Florida shows Biden 4.6 percentage points ahead of Trump, 49% to 44.4%. RealClearPolitics also shows Biden ahead 4.6 points, but with slightly different percentages, 48.6% for Biden and 44% for Trump.
Several other top-tier polls have come out in recent days, most with positive news for the Biden:
An Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday had Biden at 49% and Trump at 45%, an advantage of 4 percentage points for Biden. Ipsos has a "B-" rating from FiveThirtyEight.
A University of North Florida poll released Tuesday had Biden at 51% and Trump at 45%, a net positive for Biden of 6 points. UNF has an "A/B" rating.
A Siena College/New York Times poll released Saturday had at 47% and Trump at 42%, a net plus for Biden of 5 points. Siena has an "A+" rating
There are many, many other polls floating around, many of them from organizations that haven't been polling long enough to develop a reputation or whose methodology isn't widely accepted.
St. Leo University released results of an online poll Wednesday afternoon showing Biden with 50% in Florida and 44% for Trump. It has a grade of "C/D."
One thing that makes polling especially dicey right now is the swirl of news events that can dramatically affect voters' views of Trump or Biden during each day's news cycle.
Over the course of 11 days, Trump nominated a candidate to fill a Supreme Court vacancy, the New York Times reported Trump paid almost nothing in federal income taxes for most of 20 years, the two candidates met in a raucous debate, a tape came out showing first lady Melania Trump denigrating Christmas, Trump came down with coronavirus, was hospitalized, and left the hospital; and Trump announced he was suspending talks on new coronavirus relief legislation.
It takes time for effects to settle enough for polls to detect what, if any, long-term effects emanate from big news events. And Quinnipiac was interviewing voters as developments were at a fever pitch from Oct 1 to Oct. 5. That was after the debate. Interviews were taking place as Trump was hospitalized but before he returned to the White House.
Biden meanwhile kept up his in-person campaigning, including a campaign swing to Florida on Monday.
Florida is a critical state for both sides. It awards 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. And the state has a history of exceedingly close elections; Trump won Florida by 1.2 percentage points in 2016.
The Sept. 29 debate, in which Trump frequently interrupted Biden and the moderator, registered with voters, Quinnipiac found.
It wasn't positive for Trump. Among Florida likely voters, 44% said the debate made them think less favorably of Trump, with 43% saying had no impact in their views and 9% saying it made them think more favorably of him.
The debate was better for Biden, with 19% of Florida voters saying the debate made them think less highly of him, 48% saying the debate had no impact on their views of Biden, and 29% made them think more favorably of him.
"Who came out less battered and bruised after the debate debacle? The numbers suggest if it wasn't a knockout, it was certainly a TKO for Biden," Malloy said.
Voters views of the way Trump has handled the coronavirus response have declined Quinnipiac found with 56% disapproving and 40% approving in Wednesday's poll, a net negative of 16 percentage points. In September, disapproval was lower _ 51% _ and approval was higher _ 46%, a net negative of 5 points.
His overall approval has also dipped since September. It's a net negative of 10 points in the current poll; in September it was a net negative of 4 points.
Florida voters said Biden would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus, 57% to 38%.
It doesn't mean Biden is loved, however. His net favorability rating is positive 7 points.
For its poll, Quinnipiac interviewed 1,256 likely Florida voters with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. That means that a result showing 50% could actually range from 47% to 53%.
And Quinnipiac, in particular, draws a lot of skepticism from political strategists _ even Democrats who think its numbers are consistently too rosy _ because its surveys in recent election cycles have tended to show better results for Democrats than other pollsters.
Polling analyst Nate Cohn of the New York Times described it Wednesday on Twitter as "Qs persistent Biden House effect this cycle."
Still, Cohn added, "you could chop 7 pts off these numbers and they'd still be fine for Biden."
