BG has been boosted in recent days by the rising oil price and the $1bn disposal of its majority stake in a gas pipeline business.
This followed a period of volatility, including bid speculation earlier this year - with ExxonMobile or Chevron named as possible predators - in the wake of the resignation of chief executive Chris Finlayson alongside a disappointing update.
In an upbeat market, BG is currently 2p better at £12.69, but analysts at Credit Suisse are unconvinced. They have moved their recommendation from neutral to underperform, partly on their view that a bid is unlikely. They said:
2015 is likely to be another challenging year for BG. We cut our earnings per share by 7-11% over our forecast period. This is driven by LNG (remodelled) and we now reflect higher interest expenses in Australia from 2015 (capitalised before). We see limited macro-related upside in 2014 as most of BG's earnings sensitivity to oil price movements is hedged at $106 a barrel.
[In Brazil] the pace and shape of development beyond 2020 will be slower than BG estimates unless the operator's view on the resources materially changes, which looks unlikely in the near term.
M&A [is] unlikely at current levels, in our view. Even with perfect execution and upside from synergies, it would be hard to make a deal accretive for most majors and there may be no obvious rationale for a deal, in our view.
