Kosvo has been in political limbo ever since Nato forces drove out those of the former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic six years ago.
But Kosovo's uncertain political status may come to an end this year as its majority ethnic Albanians and the Serbian government in Belgrade start final status talks in Vienna on the former Serbian province.
It is difficult to see any other outcome than independence for Kosovo, where the ethnic Albanians have been chafing to make a final break with Belgrade. While Kosovo's Albanians initially welcomed UN administrators, they have become increasingly restive at this political band-aid.
In March 2004, that frustration spilled into violent rioting, providing a sharp reminder to the contact group for Kosovo - the US, Russia, the UK, Germany, Italy and France - on the need to sort out once and for all Kosovo's political status.
Belgrade is amenable to full autonomy, but is dead set against independence. Kosovo exercises a strong pull on the Serbian psyche. This was where Prince Lazar was defeated by the Ottoman Sultan Murat in 1389 and Milosevic unleashed the demons of Serb nationalism in a speech in Kosovo in 1987.
With such strong historical ties, no Serbian politician could agree to independence for Kosovo. But if occupation is nine-tenths of the law, it is hard to see how Belgrade can stop what looks increasingly like a runaway train for independence.
The EU also enjoys enormous leverage through the prospect of EU membership, although there are fears in Belgrade and elsewhere in the Balkans of "enlargement fatigue".
The US and the UK among the contact group are leaning towards some form of independence accompanied by guarantees on minority rights, the presence of peacekeeping troops and an international civilian mission.
But Russia, Serbia's traditional ally, is nervous about setting a precedent for Chechens and other separatists in the former Soviet Union. China will also be watching carefully too with Taiwan very much in mind. There could be more at stake than Kosovo in the UN-mediated talks that began today.
