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The Canberra Times
The Canberra Times
National
John Hanscombe

Beware of lights at the end of the tunnel. They could be oncoming trains

Photo: File

The sun's out, the weather's still warm, unemployment is down, the footy's back on. All is good, you say. There's light at the end of the tunnel.

But wait. The COVID Cassandra is knocking at the door and we should listen to what she has to say.

We might have ditched most restrictions - to what extent depends on what state or territory you're in - but we should hold on to commonsense because another surge appears to have arrived.

In NSW this week, daily case numbers have been up around the 20,000 mark after an earlier data error pushed them above 30,000. Thankfully, hospitalisations have been stable, with those in ICU still in the low 30s. The ACT recorded its highest case number since January 19 on Thursday and is preparing for a surge in cases, driven largely in schools.

The culprit appears to be the son of omicron, the BA.2 variant. And just as we saw with omicron, authorities are saying the variant is highly contagious if less severe than earlier strains of the virus.

So we can be on our merry way, right?

Wrong.

To avoid a repeat of summer's supply chain shemozzle, caused by the huge number of workers off sick with COVID, those basic steps we took from the start of the pandemic are just as important as they were two years ago.

Masks indoors. Hand hygiene. Social distancing. Staying home when symptoms appear. Tests. You know the drill.

Oh, and you over-60s still dragging the chain on your boosters, get with the program and get it done. After all, a healthy economy depends on a healthy population.

And on the economic front, there's another light in the tunnel that might be an oncoming train. While the government is revelling in the lowest unemployment numbers seen in four decades, hoping the figure will boost its claim to sound economic management, it's also keeping a nervous eye on inflation as it prepares its election budget.

Amid all the uncertainty wrought by COVID disruption, labour shortages, sanctions on Russia, yo-yoing crude oil prices and the cost of living creeping ever upwards while wages remain steadfastly grounded, striking the right balance in an election budget will be a tightrope act to behold.

And then there's the elephant in the room few are talking about.

Should the Reserve Bank pull its inflation-braking lever by lifting the cash rate - as the Fed in the US and the Bank of England just did - those who bought at the top of the overheated property market will feel the pinch more than most.

For those who read the federal election tea leaves in other contests, all eyes will be on South Australia this weekend. There, first term Premier Steve Marshall faces Peter Malinauskas, one-time Labor health minister, who if polls can be believed is in the box seat.

Those lights at the end of the tunnel. One should never assume they're daylight.

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