Gamblers are rushing to place online bets on which country Donald Trump could attack next.
Polymarket, a popular crypto-based betting market, has recently added multiple betting contracts that allow users to bet on potential U.S. military action in countries including Colombia and Cuba.
It comes after one trader won more than $400,000 with a wager that Nicolas Maduro would be ousted as the leader of Venezuela, according to The Wall Street Journal.
However, some traders were disappointed after placing wagers on a U.S. invasion in Venezuela by January 31. Polymarket later added a note to the contract saying that the mission to capture Maduro did not qualify as an “invasion.”
Elsewhere, gamblers predict a 25 percent chance that airstrikes will be launched on Iran by January 31, and a 63 percent chance that the ceasefire between Iran and Israel will be broken by June 30.
The site appears to be aware of the ethical concerns surrounding its wagers.
“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” a disclaimer not on Middle East betting contracts states.
“That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.”
The Independent has contacted Polymarket for comment.
Other geopolitical bets are also gaining traction, including the likelihood of Trump acquiring Greenland by the end of 2026, which currently sits at 16 percent.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket, gained more public attention when they predicted the president’s victory in the 2024 election. They also expand into sporting events alongside traditional betting sites such as DraftKings and FanDuel.
