Boris Johnson’s pendulum swing from “freedom day” to unlocking with “extreme caution” relayed a shift in the government’s thinking – that the relaxation of almost all restrictions at this stage comes with significant risk. The move to make fully vaccinated people returning from France continue to quarantine – because of the risk of the Beta variant – appears to be another sign of panic setting in.
Delta, the dominant variant in the UK, is far more transmissible than the Beta variant, which was first identified in South Africa. But the danger of Beta has long been its ability to thwart any vaccine shield, particularly the AstraZeneca jab. Beta actually preceded Delta – it was first recorded in the UK in December but never quite took off. In South Africa, it has dominated. It also accounts for about one in 10 new infections in France, but that data includes the French territories of Réunion and Mayotte, where the variant is almost dominant.
Meanwhile, Delta is driving the surge in Covid infections across the UK. Scientists have long warned that fully unlocking with a partially immune population (only half the UK is fully vaccinated) is a recipe for the emergence of new, dangerous variants. The unlocking will probably not just allow Delta cases to rise sharply and potentially make way for the variant to mutate further, but perhaps even accommodate the spread of the more vaccine-evasive Beta.
So far, Beta has remained relatively muted in terms of infections in the UK – perhaps because of the initial numbers seeded or a function of demographics. Government figures show that there have only been 1,073 confirmed and probable cases (and none in the week leading up to 7 July). So why is Beta suddenly clogging up UK airwaves again?
On Saturday, the government was embroiled in a rancorous diplomatic standoff with France, after deciding to continue imposing a 10-day quarantine on fully vaccinated people returning from the country (due to the risk of Beta) – after previously announcing that fully vaccinated Britons returning from countries on the “amber” list would no longer need to isolate after 19 July.
The rule change over France isn’t exactly unreasonable – data from a small study earlier this year showed the AstraZeneca vaccine is only about 10% effective at protecting against mild and moderate illness induced by Beta, although scientists still expect the jab will protect against serious disease. It appears that the government is trying not to compound the situation by allowing for the spread of a variant that can cause illness in fully vaccinated people – but in the grander scheme of things, by allowing the virus to rip through the UK population with the full unlocking, that may occur anyway, virologists say.
“It does feel rather hypocritical to ask people to quarantine from our perspective,” said Stephen Griffin, a virologist from the University of Leeds, citing the UK’s policy to effectively let cases explode by essentially ending most restrictions on Monday. “It is a completely conflicting message – the fact that we’re not following any kind of appropriate behaviour, and yet we’re going to make people coming in from France quarantine.”
Letting cases rip in the UK, while taking away legal restrictions such as mask-wearing and social distancing, could be a breeding ground for all sorts of different variant dynamics. Although Beta is not as transmissible as Delta – or even Alpha (the variant first discovered in Kent) – when there are loads of fully vaccinated people mixing indoors, that could favour the spread of Beta, noted Griffin, cautioning that this was just speculation for now.
Nobody has a crystal ball big or shiny enough to predict how people will behave as more restrictions are lifted, to anticipate the dynamics of different variants as a consequence of the unlocking, or indeed whether new vaccine-resistant variants will definitely emerge as a result of increased transmission. But the argument for sanctioning fully vaccinated travellers returning from places with lower infection rates, while the virus runs wild here, is difficult to comprehend.
Scientists have predicted the UK will likely hit 100,000 cases a day this summer – and the higher the transmission the more the virus has the opportunity to evolve. If somebody wanted to conduct a natural experiment to generate vaccine-resistant variants, this 19 July unlocking would be the way to do it, suggested Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick. Sure, Beta remains a threat – but the risk from unlocking now is far steeper.
