Have you ever noticed that the Titans and the Jaguars always meet for a Thursday Night Football matchup? I picked up on the theme when they would force the teams to wear color rush jerseys when they played on their Thursday Night Football game. It always looked like some weird color palette had thrown up on my screen. The color rush was really the focus because the game has kind of been historically boring. Either the Jaguars were bad, the Titans were bad, or both. What a combination. That made wagering on the game a must because it wasn’t easy to watch another Blake Bortles-Marcus Mariota matchup where the teams tried to run the ball a combined 100 times.
This year, we don’t get any Bortles which is unfortunate. We don’t even get Nick Foles who was supposed to be the signal-caller for Jacksonville. Instead, it’s Mariota v. Minshew. Actually, anything with Gardner Minshew involved is probably more fun just because he’s there.
As always, game lines are the mode here and home team is in CAPS.
Tennessee Titans -1.5 v. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Both of these teams are coming off losses to AFC South rivals. The Titans lost to the Colts at home and the Jaguars lost to the Texans on the road. The short week should theoretically help the Titans since they aren’t starting a rookie QB who took over in the first week of the season because their original quarterback went down with injury. The Jags happen to have that exact situation.
This game also doesn’t have the kind of spread we would like to see in games that are going to go under, because this game is going to go so far under it’s ridiculous. You could tell me this game had a total of 28 and I am still taking the under — that’s a bit of a spoiler alert.
A reminder from last week (these stats include last Thursday as well): Home teams’ record against the spread on Thursday Night Football is 11-2-2 in the last 15 games. The average margin of victory is 15 points. The record moves to 20-6-2 in the last 28 games. Last season the average margin of victory on Thursday Night was 14 points.
Those trends mean they should take the Jaguars. The problem is that the Jaguars are an absolute mess. Jalen Ramsey wants to be traded and he got into a confrontation with Doug Marrone last game. Yannick Ngakoue wanted a new contract and was injured but is now back. That situation can’t be totally resolved. Gardner Minshew is everyone’s cult hero but he’s making his second start in the NFL. Leonard Fournette looks like he could be a top-10 pick bust. He’s good, but his performance has not been worth the investment.
The Titans blew the doors off the Browns in their first game but then their offense disappeared at home against the Colts. That’s going to Tennessee’s problem all year. Their defense will be great. Their running game will be great. Their passing game will be up and down.
It’s just tough to pick Jacksonville in this game. They played well against the Texans last week, but with a week of drama and a short week for a young quarterback, the Titans are the pick.
Bet: Titans -1.5 OVER JAGUARS
Over-Under 39
That is a low number for the over-under and honestly, I wouldn’t touch this bet at all. There’s no reason to mess with such a low number. This game could easily end up 21-20.
If we have to make a decision, the only choice here is the under. Neither team has an explosive offense. It’s a short week. Both teams’ defenses are top of the league level talent. The Jaguars play at the slowest pace in the league.
Bet: Under 39
Six-Point Two-Team Teaser
Titans +4.5 over JAGUARS
Under 45
This one I oddly feel more comfortable with. This way we get points for the Titans and we can have some breathing room for the under. If we like the Titans, and we like the under then this is an even better bet.
