Not a good start to last week, folks. A 1-3 record is not where you want to be after the first week, but that’s why we said to ease into the NFL season when it comes to picks.
The Week 2 advice is a bit different than Week 1 although it still kind of has to do with gambling decision making. If we say to wade into shallow waters during Week 1then Week 2 really has to do with overreactions. Lines will go haywire based on one game of football. The Cowboys are unbeatable. The Patriots are going to beat the Dolphins by 20. The Falcons stink and the Bears may never score an offensive touchdown. Those are the things books want us to think. They want us to believe that whatever happened Week 1 will happen again in Week 2. Teams will be overvalued. Totals will be too low or too high. We can make some decisions and we should stick to those decisions — such as never betting on Joe Flacco as a favorite ever again — but other decisions we have to make thinking if the book wants us to bet one way or the other.
For the newcomers, this isn’t a normal betting article. I won’t pick every game. I will actually use over/unders for game totals and team totals. I’ll throw in a prop bet if it’s interesting and on the board. I will definitely throw in teasers and parlays.
A quick reminder on teasers: On two-team teasers we get six points to play with. Let’s use completely hypothetical Pittsburgh v. Cleveland line that is listed Pittsburgh -9, and an Atlanta v. Tampa Bay line that is listed Atlanta – 7 as an example. That means we can move that line six points either way — so Steelers -3 or Cleveland +15. To do so we must move another line as well. In this case, our teaser bet is Pittsburgh -3 and Atlanta -1. We must win both bets. Meaning if Pittsburgh were to win by three — a push — we’d lose. If Atlanta wins by one, same thing. We must win each side. Teaser bets are also known as sucker’s bets because they are actually pretty difficult to hit. Everyone puts money on it thinking it’s an easy win and then they lose. We have crumpled betting tickets in our hands and maybe we use them to wipe the tears. Teasers come in the six-point, 10-point, and 14-point variety. We can do three-team six-point teasers for better odds. We will always explain it.
Here’s my normal caveat: please, please ease into the first weeks — if you’re hypothetically betting on games. Teams can surprise you. Teams will disappoint you. It’s tough to get a good handle on the NFL until at least five to six weeks into the season. Find out what teams you like and what teams you don’t like and stick to it. By the middle of the season, Las Vegas will have adjusted and there won’t be a chance to sneak in some value here and there.
And remember, this is just for fun. Because watching football is supposed to be fun. Alright, let’s get started.
Home teams in CAPS, odds, as always, lines used are the mode listed here. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.
Chicago Bears -2.5 v. DENVER BRONCOS
This is where the sharps come out and talk about how difficult it is to play a game in Denver in September. It’s going to be 91 degrees on Sunday. Combine the hot weather with the thing air and the Broncos have a great history of covering in December at Mile High. Also, the Bears -2.5 is one of those lines where it feels like the book is begging us to take Chicago based on last year’s performance. It’s a trap game.
Well, I am taking the trap. The Bears defense should absolutely run the Broncos ragged. Denver simply doesn’t have the necessary offensive weapons to go up against the Chicago defense — which is still very good. The way I look it at it is that the Green Bay offense may actually be good and the Bears did the job of shutting them down last week outside of one drive. Now the Bears get a washed-up Flacco and Phillip Lindsay. The Bears should be able to stop that.
It is a revenge game for Vic Fangio. I don’t know if a revenge game actually works when the Bears would have loved to bring Fangio back as their defensive coordinator. Fangio should know the Bears’ offensive weakness so Matt Nagy needs to come up with a game plan that was better than whatever we saw last Thursday in the NFL opener. Mitch Trubisky can’t be as bad as what we saw against the Packers. If he is, the Bears need to figure out what their next steps will be at quarterback. This window isn’t going to stay open forever and the Bears don’t exactly have a ton of draft picks moving forward.
The under looks like a tasty bet as well. A 40 point game is well within the realm of possibility here.
Bet: Bears -2.5 over BRONCOS
10-Point Three Team Teaser
New England Patriots -9.5 over MIAMI DOLPHINS
BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 over Arizona Cardinals
HOUSTON TEXANS +1.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars
We have our first three-team teaser of the year. Three teamers come with 10 points to move the spread in each game. We have the three biggest favorites in a three-teamer — side note: this bet never ever works, but it was too good to pass up. Remember: a push in any of these games means the bet is a loss.
The Patriots are the scariest part of this bet. They always play poorly in Miami. Bill Belichick might take it easy on his former defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, if the score looks like it’s getting out of hand. The Patriots are dealing with the human distraction that is Antonio Brown. They have to win by 10 for this bet to even have a chance. That’s not easy in any NFL game. Taking 19.5 points and Miami may be the better bet — or tease this game up to 29.5 points which is an Alabama versus a bottom of the SEC team type spread.
The Ravens absolutely blew the doors off the Dolphins last week and now they get what may be the second least talented roster in the NFL for Week 2. They even get to play the Cardinals in Baltimore at 10:00 a.m. PT. This is going to be a tough game for Kyler Murray and company. The Ravens defense is always good. The air raid will have to be moving from the jump and Arizona didn’t do that last week.
The Texans should have never lost their opener against the Saints. This game is more of a bet against the Jaguars because of injuries. Yannick Ngakoue isn’t playing. A.J. Bouye is questionable. Nick Foles isn’t playing and Gardner Minshew will make his first NFL start. I am a fan of Minshew from his time at Wazzou, but it’s tough to bet on him in his first game. Also, the Texans can’t afford a loss in their home opener. They want to be in the thick of things by the end of the season and this loss would hurt any chance for a bye.
Dallas Cowboys -6 v. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
This is one of those don’t take the Cowboys because their spread will be inflated since they crushed the Giants at home last week. The Giants are bad. There was no way they were covering against one of the deeper teams in the NFL.
Well, the Redskins are also bad. Sure, they had some interesting big plays against the Eagles last week, but other than Terry McLaurin, the rest of their offensive explosion may not be replicable. Also, the Redskins weren’t even going to cover in their game with the Eagles. They came in through the backdoor with a late touchdown to make the game look respectable.
The Cowboys could be a wagon. They could be one of the best teams in the NFC. We need to see Dak Prescott play well again. He doesn’t need to be lights out like last week, but if the Cowboys can throw the ball consistently, they are going to be very scary.
Bet: Cowboys -6 over REDSKINS
Minnesota Vikings v. GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5
The Packers had 10 days to prepare for their home opener. If they can win this game against Minnesota it gives the Packers a nice little cushion in the NFC North when it comes down to the end of the season tie-breakers. There’s nothing like starting 2-0 in the division.
The problem for Green Bay is that the Vikings defense may be close to as good as the Chicago defense and we know the Minnesota offense is much better than Chicago’s offense right now. The Vikings can attack in multiple ways. They can run the ball down their opponents’ throat as they did last week. Dalvin Cook is explosive and finally healthy. That should scare any Minnesota opponent. Yes, Kirk Cousins has a bad history against teams that finish over .500, but he doesn’t have the be the center of attention here. Cook’s ability opens up the field for everyone else. It isn’t like Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs suddenly forgot how to catch footballs.
The Packers defense, which looked great in Week 1, isn’t going up against a team where they can win by making the quarterback beat them. The Vikings will be happy to do so.
Bets: Vikings +2.5 over PACKERS
2019 Record: 1-3
2018 Record: 59-59-2
2017 Record: 43-29
