This game was supposed to be a Sam Darnold versus Baker Mayfield showdown. It looked like it could be a matchup of two up and coming teams. They would be rivals for years to come. It was going to be the new Manning against Brady. Then reality hit. The Browns came out and laid an absolute egg at home against the Titans. Cleveland’s offensive line was abysmal. Mayfield threw multiple interceptions to make a close game a blowout. The Jets didn’t fare much better. They got out to a quick lead over the Bills and proceeded to blow said lead in the fourth quarter. It was all very-Jets.
We put that in the rearview for Week 2. It was still an exciting game. Then the Jets lost Sam Darnold to mono. They lost C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams to injury for at least this game. Even Le’Veon Bell was listed as questionable. An exciting game has turned into who knows what.
And that is exactly why we make picks on the game. An exciting game has turned into a question mark, but when there’s something on the line, the game is automatically more exciting. So let’s get right to it.
As always, game lines are the mode here and home team is in CAPS.
Cleveland Browns -6.5 v. NEW YORK JETS
This spread started out around Browns -2 or Browns -2.5 depending on what book line was taken into account earlier in the week. It obviously skyrocketed when Darnold was ruled out with mononucleosis. It’s now slightly less than a touchdown.
The bigger difference-maker in this game could be the absences of Mosley and Williams. When Mosley was on the field last week, the Buffalo offense struggled against the New York defense. When he left the field, that was not the case. That will help out Baker and the Cleveland offense. Williams being out also takes out one of the Jets defensive linemen who could push the pocket. The Browns offensive line looked bad against the Titans. The Jets may not have the same skill as Tennessee when it comes to their defensive front, but skill is skill and Williams has it. Now the Jets will have to manufacture pressure elsewhere.
We should expect the Browns to come out of the gate and see if they can establish Nick Chubb. If they can get the running game going, it could help a bit if Cleveland decides to use play-action passing to actually get their receivers open. Mayfield should have a much easier time with the Jets secondary than he did against the Titans defensive backfield. Josh Allen isn’t exactly known for his accuracy — in fact, he connected at a 52 percent rate his first season — and even he passed for 64 percent against the Jets. Mayfield is known for his accuracy. The ball might never hit the ground tonight if the Jets defense doesn’t pressure the 2018 No. 1 pick.
As for the Jets offense, I guess it will be a lot of Le’Veon Bell. What are the other options? We aren’t going to see Trevor Siemian back there chucking the ball 40 times to a non-existent receiving corps. Robby Anderson will play but he was dealing with a calf injury. Demaryius Thomas has been questionable all week. The Jets don’t have a ton of weapons to begin with.
The one thing that scares me in this game — if you haven’t figured out which way I am leaning for the game pick — would be that Adam Gase knows how to slow down a game to snail’s pace. His Dolphins teams had one of the slowest paces of the play in the league. That can keep a game close.
The problem is that if the Jets can’t get touchdowns and only get field goals, this game could turn ugly quick. If the Browns can go up 14, the Jets will have to pass the ball and they don’t have the necessary talent to do so in this game.
Feel free to buy a half-point down to six in this game if you’re nervous. It shouldn’t cost you more than -120.
Bet: Browns -6.5 over JETS
Cleveland Browns v. NEW YORK JETS
Over-Under 44
We aren’t tied to the under here since we took the Browns -6.5 If we took the Jets +6.5 it would probably be smarter to take the under. In this scenario, the Jets control the clock with a slow-paced offense. Bell touches the ball over 35 times. Siemian only throws screens and short passes. The Jets keep it close and they cover and it goes under.
Here’s another scenario and it’s one I am slightly more tied to. The Browns absolutely smoke the Jets. They get out to a quick lead. Then the shut down the offense and try to get out of New Jersey with a win and everyone healthy. Something like the Browns are up 28-3 in the fourth and drop in an extra field goal. The final score is about 31-10.
Six-Point Two Team Teaser
Cleveland Browns -.5 over NEW YORK JETS
Under 50
We get to use the six points to move the game down to what is essentially a pick ’em and we can move the total up to 50. That means the Browns would have to absolutely go off on offense and drop 40-plus points or the Jets would really have to surprise everyone and score more than 22. With the pace of play issue, this is the safest two-team teaser.
10-Point Three Team Teaser
Cleveland Browns +3.5 over NEW YORK JETS
Under 54
Over 34
If you want to really get nuts, this is the play to go crazy. This way we even get points for Cleveland. The Jets can win the game. Then, we try and thread the needle on the total. Let’s say we think the Jets have a chance in this game. We think it’s a 20-17 game. Well, this gets us over the 34, under the 54, and we cover even if it’s Jets 20 Browns 17.
This bet would scare me because it could be a 30-3 game and that won’t hit the over.
Team Total
NEW YORK JETS Over-Under 18.5
The Browns team total is at 27.5 which is slightly too high for me to take. The Jets team total is not. In fact, the under comes with a -105 number meaning we would pay less of a percentage — since the standard is -110 — on a loss. There’s some value here. The Jets will want to keep this game low scoring. If they score three touchdowns, they will expect to win this game. That’s very simple. If we don’t expect the Jets to win, then we shouldn’t take the over here.
Plus, the Browns defense wasn’t bad last week. For three quarters they played well and then they were let down by the offense. That’s enough to take an under here.
Bet: JETS under 18.5 team total (-105)
Baker Mayfield Over 22.5 Completions (-130)
Again, Josh Allen had a 64 percent completion rate against this Jets defense and they actually had mostly everyone on the field. Mayfield is more accurate than Allen. It’s a Monday Night, Baker has all eyes on him, he’s going to play well. Then he will have a press conference and the former Heisman winner who was the top pick in the NFL draft and is playing on a team that many picked to win the AFC North will talk about how no one believed in the Browns.
Nick Chubb over 85.5 yards (-115)
The hedge against Baker going under 22.5 completions is Nick Chubb gaining over 85.5 yards. The Browns will only get this if they decide to pound the football. If Freddie Kitchens gives the ball to Dontrell Hilliard, we riot.
Le’Veon Bell over 4.5 receptions (+105)
Because who else are the Jets going to pass the ball to?
Jamison Crowder over 4.5 receptions (-170)
This is the only acceptable answer the question above and it’s really a good bet. Siemian will check the ball down a lot and Crowder is going to be the security blanket if the Browns want to force the ball away from Bell.
