A federal byelection will be held in the Sydney seat of Bennelong on 16 December, caused by the resignation of local MP John Alexander after he discovered he was ineligible to sit in parliament because he held British citizenship.
Bennelong, while usually a Liberal seat, has been marginal at many recent elections, and famously fell to Labor in 2007, when the sitting prime minister, John Howard, lost the seat. While the Liberals would normally be favourites to win the seat, it could well be in play. If Bennelong changed hands it would threaten the government’s stability and deprive it of a governing majority.
Bennelong sits on the lower north shore of Sydney, covering the Ryde and Epping areas. This is quite a multicultural area: according to the 2016 census, 44% of the population did not speak English at home. This ranks 13th out of 150 federal electorates. Only one other Liberal seat ranks higher on this metric.
The seat was created in 1949. While it wasn’t the safest Liberal seat, Labor only came close to winning at the peak of its support in 1961 and 1972. It was won in 1974 by Howard, who represented the area throughout his career. Throughout Howard’s tenure the seat shifted west, away from Lane Cove and towards Parramatta, and gradually became more multicultural.
Howard’s vote after preferences dropped to 54.3% in 2004, when the former intelligence whistleblower Andrew Wilkie stood for the Greens. When Labor ran the former journalist Maxine McKew in 2007, she defeated Howard with a 5.5% swing.
McKew held the seat for only one term, losing to former tennis star Alexander in 2010. Alexander increased his margin from 3.1% at that election to 9.7% in 2016.
The 2016 result was the best in Bennelong for the Liberals since the 1996 landslide. They won most booths, but with a wide variation in support. Alexander did particularly well in the Gladesville area, but not as well in Ryde, West Ryde and Ermington.
This byelection will not be an easy gain for Labor, but the seat is certainly in play. National polling suggests Labor has gained about 5% since the last election, but byelections can produce much larger localised swings.
It is not clear how much damage will be done to Alexander by his ineligibility. Some may look harshly on politicians violating the constitution, but others may have sympathy for those caught out thanks to the circumstances of their parents’ birth.
If Labor gains the seat, and assuming Barnaby Joyce is re-elected in New England and no other seats go to byelections, the government would be left one seat short of a majority. It would need to rely on the vote of one of the five crossbenchers to stay in power – the independent Cathy McGowan has previously agreed to guarantee confidence and supply.
It’s not hard to see the Coalition government finding a way through with the support of some of the crossbench MPs, but a minority government would be fragile and have trouble implementing its agenda, as it limps its way to an election which polls suggest will bring an end to Malcolm Turnbull’s government.
