The wrap
Well, that was quite the night.
Labor didn’t get the result it was hoping for, but both publicly and privately, the party doesn’t seem overly upset.
Malcolm Turnbull looks like all his Christmases have come at once. John Alexander said … some things (there should be an apology for that disabled comment. It is not a matter of “pride” to have to use a disabled parking sticker).
And it won’t be the last we see of Kristina Keneally. I would say that political career has been well and truly resurrected.
So, looking forward, we have a reshuffle to look forward and the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook ahead of us, so don’t start relaxing just yet.
And unless David Feeney can come up with proof he sent his paperwork off in 2007, we are most likely off to a byelection in Batman sometime early next year.
So don’t expect the excitement to stop anytime soon!
Thank you again for joining me for this special edition of Politics Live (I know, I know, what else would you be doing on a Saturday night. What else would I be doing?!) and a massive thank you to Mike Bowers, Anne Davies, Michael McGowan and the whole Guardian Australia team for their efforts tonight.
I am as excited about going to sleep as Malcolm Turnbull was at winning, so I will bid you a goodnight.
But I will be back in 2018! So, please enjoy your weekend and have a wonderful summer break. Sending all the merry happy everythings no matter what you celebrate, take care and please wear sunscreen.
I’ll catch you on the other side.
Updated
Because Mike Bowers is a super-human, he managed to make it over to Liberal HQ. The man is a marvel.
Photos of Malcolm Turnbull and John Alexander haven’t come through as yet (Mike Bowers was at Labor HQ) but I can offer you this
We are almost at the end – the latest count has Labor with a 7.58% swing in its primary vote, but on a two-party preferred measure (at this time – we still have postals to go as well) it’s sitting on about 5.58%.
Updated
Sidenote: John Alexander was talking about a time when he injured his back and thought his tennis career was over:
The doctor at the time said, “You have eligibility for a disabled sticker.”
“I said, ‘I still have some pride.’ That was before I entered politics!”
This “joke” may be one of the reasons he was kept as quiet as possible during the campaign, with senior ministers doing all the talking for him.
Updated
“I’m sure it wasn’t a deliberate thing, not mentioning her in their speeches,” Christopher Pyne says, adding that Labor ran a “very dirty campaign”.
That probably went both ways in this one.
Malcolm Turnbull has ramped up his New England win excitement to about 1,000.
The prime minister is loving life sick right now.
Notable: Neither Turnbull or John Alexander acknowledged any of their opponents, including Kristina Keneally.
Updated
John Alexander finishes his speech by turning to Malcolm Turnbull and telling him “this is the renaissance of your leadership”.
“Bennelong’s champion, Australia’s champion” gets one last push. @AmyRemeikis pic.twitter.com/LZ9TTBsmhO
— Michael McGowan (@mmcgowan569) December 16, 2017
Alexander:
This event over the last five weeks, I think, under Malcolm, has brought us together. It’s been the most unifying and humbling experience. I think that Malcolm would agree that we had something like 800 volunteers working today ... which makes us just two of 800 and that’s how it is. We were a team where every single person is so valued, so appreciated and jus thank you, thank you so much.
He then thanks the people of Bennelong.
The overwhelming feeling, and we feel tonight, is that there is an incredible moment of elation and it’s very, very similar to when you are selected to represent your country in sport.
“But the immediate reaction that you have after that moment of elation is that you have a responsibility and that’s a responsibility to do your absolute best.
“Under Malcolm for the people of Australia, and for me, for the people of Bennelong. Again, thank you so much.”
Updated
John Alexander is now allowed to speak:
This... is an extraordinary moment for us. The last four or five weeks have been a tumultuous time.
“It’s been a real battle. I think there’s many positives to take from this but, firstly, I think I’ve got to say to the people of Bennelong that it has been regrettable we had to go through this experience, that we had to have a byelection.
“On the positive side, with all of the volunteers here and your incredible support, with the support of my colleagues, with the support of Mitch who I see there who caught my eye who, in 2010, we door-knocked 10,000 homes and that was really the basis of our winning Bennelong.
Liberals have come from across the state, across the nation, we have had Nationals with us campaigning here just as Liberals campaigned for Barnaby in New England,” Turnbull says.
“A great coalition. John Alexander had everything thrown at him. Everyl ie that Labor could dream up was thrown at him. (The crowd boos)
“But, John, as always, was straigh tand true and honest and he stuck to our principles and our policies and he talked about the 1,000 jobs a day we are creating in Australia. (the crowd cheers)
“He talked about the $75 billion of infrastructure we’re building. He talked about the work he is doing for the people of Bennelong and he said to them:
“I have been your champion, now let me be your champion again. “
“John, they have said, “Yes, John Alexander, you are Bennelong’s champion just as you have been Australia’s champion”.
Malcolm Turnbull arrives on stage first. John Alexander blows some kisses to the crowd.
And Turnbull is the first to speak:
“Thank you Bennelong, the people of Bennelong have put their faith in this man,” he says as he grabs Alexander’s hand and holds it up.
Liberal supporters are chanting “we want John” as the pair approach the stage.
Updated
The cheers are getting louder at Liberal HQ.
I’d say John Alexander and Malcolm Turnbull are in the building
Matt Thistlethwaite is speaking about a potential Batman byelection (in the event the high court rules David Feeney was ineligible because of dual citizenship) but refuses to say that he will be the candidate who contests the election.
He points out he is not from that state (Victoria) but says that Feeney will nominate and there will be a preselection process. What he doesn’t say, is that he will win that preselection.
While we are waiting on John Alexander and Malcolm Turnbull to speak, a couple more Mike Bowers shots from the happiest concession party you ever did see:
With 37 of the 39 booths returned, Labor has seen a swing of about 5.58% on the two-party preferred measure.
Updated
As for what Antony Green thinks of using the byelection swing and applying it nationally:
I think it is pointless discussing the byelection. What’s more relevant is the national polls and there hasn’t been a national poll for a very long time.
“The national percentage is more reliable. Byelections, it may be bigger or smaller than the next general election. The swing in this byelection is slightly bigger than the national swing you see in opinion polls.
“The rule of thumb is usually a byelection swing will be twice whatever the national polls are.
“It may be the John Alexander factor or a number of reasons. I think the national polls are far more important.”
Updated
Matt Thistlethwaite says it is “mission accomplished” for Labor, in the sense that they have taken a safe Liberal seat and made it a marginal Liberal seat, “and puts us in a very good position to win next time”.
John Alexander and Malcolm Turnbull are due to give their victory speeches at any moment.
This is assuming of course, that Alexander is allowed to speak for himself this time.
That was the most victorious concession speech I have ever heard.
Shorten then makes his play for the general election:
I … promise you, in 2018 – I make this promise to the Australian people: Labor will present positive policies, we will present policies which speak to people’s lives, the cost of living, the energy prices, the schools, the Medicare needs of Australians.
“I promise in 2018, it will be a year of courage because the Australian people want courage from the Labor party and I promise you, using tonight’s example, we will be courageous and we will stand up and put people first.”
Updated
Bill Shorten also quotes Malcolm Turnbull, saying it “was a poll on his government” and says he was correct:
“Friends, this was not an ordinary byelection. Normally in a byelection, the former member doesn’t run again. So … therefore, we enjoyed the benefit in the swing of perhaps the lessening of their personal vote, so I congratulate John Alexander but what I recognise is that, because he was running again, this 5.5 to 6% two-party preferred vote, I think a swing over 7% will end up or near 7% on primaries, that entire swing is attributable to Malcolm Turnbull and his rotten policies for this country.
Updated
Kristina Keneally introduces Bill Shorten:
I know when we do go to the next election, there will be millions of Australians who want to have their say on Malcolm Turnbull and his lousy government and what I say to them is you have a choice. You have a choice at the next general election. You have a choice to have a prime minister who cares for the vulnerable, who stands up and fights for working people, who is a man who knows who he is, comfortable in his skin and fights for what is right and for what is fair. He is a great friend of mine. He has been a tremendous support on this campaign.
“He is the next prime minister of Australia, Bill Shorten.”
Updated
Kristina Keneally says that the result is a verdict on Malcolm Turnbull:
The verdict is in, the message is clear, we have had enough of your lousy leadership.
“Malcolm Turnbull injected himself in this campaign, he owns this result, he owns this result. There is no doubt that thousands of people who voted Liberal just a year ago, abandoned [the Coalition].”
I said when we went into this that we were the underdogs, we needed to achieve a 10% swing.
“We needed to get 9,000 people to change their votes from how they voted a year ago.
“That is a huge ask in a 30-day campaign. Now, it is a big fight, but it is a fight worth having.”
Updated
She says that Labor is on track for a 5 to 6% swing “in a safe Liberal seat”
“Let’s just understand what this means. If this result was replicated at a general election, we would see 24-28 seats … That would mean a Labor government and it would mean Bill Shorten as our PM”
Shorten waves and the crowd starts chanting “Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill”.
Updated
“What an extraordinary result,” she says.
“We knew this was an intense campaign, especially just before the holidays.”
She thanks all those who worked on the campaign and all those who voted Labor.
“I want to congratulate John Alexander,” she says.
“...Now friends, I am not here tonight to claim victory for the Labor party. But I am here tonight to claim success for the Labor movement.”
Kristina Keneally arrives at Labor HQ
Kristina Keneally looks like she is arriving at the Labor Bennelong party with Bill Shorten. She will be conceding.
Updated
Having said that, Matt Thistlethwaite (whose name, as someone with a lisp, is my worst nightmare) says he would also like to see Kristina Keneally have another go at Bennelong in a general election.
But he also says she would be “an asset” in the Senate.
Matt Thistlethwaite is now saying that if this wasn’t a byelection, Labor probably wouldn’t have run a candidate:
“It is a deeply conservative seat,” he says.
Christopher Pyne just said that the Liberals’ internal polling showed that every time Malcolm Turnbull campaigned in the seat, the Coalition’s polling improved.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull is en-route to the Liberal Bennelong party.
On the primary vote, with just under 50% of the vote counted, Kristina Keneally has picked up just over 7.8 per cent of the vote. John Alexander’s primary vote has dropped by just over 6.8%. But the preferences from the Australian Conservatives (which looks to have taken a large chunk of the vote from the Christian Democrat Party) are flowing pretty much straight back to Alexander, which has given him a comfortable win.
Someone just got themselves back on the Christmas card list.
Updated
The mood at Labor’s Bennelong HQ doesn’t appear quite as jubilant
Updated
Having a look at the projected result from the AEC and the prediction is hovering around 55% to 45%.
Updated
#BennelongVotes preferences to Labor 47.6% compared to last election 55.3% on common booths - results at https://t.co/AsDnvgH3ok
— Antony Green (@AntonyGreenABC) December 16, 2017
Growing up in south-west Sydney I was only ever peripherally aware that the northern suburbs existed. It always had this weird nebulous quality to it, somewhere you went past on the train to Newcastle. Watching the coverage of the byelection unfold, I get the sense that I’m not alone.
A lot has been made about the high population of voters with a Chinese background and what they might or might not *do*. Whether there would be a backlash against the government because of its foreign influence laws, etc.
For what it’s worth though, one of the three people to hold this seat, Maxine McKew, told me earlier in the campaign that she thought the focus on ethnicity was overblown.
“Everyone concentrates on ethnicity but income is a more accurate guide to voting patterns,” she told me.
She considers the seat “socially conservative” – pointing out the no vote in the same-sex marriage postal vote – but still thinks it’s “open to persuasion”.
Updated
And for those wanting a visual of that:
Alexander’s supporters react when Labor HQ pops up on @SkyNewsAust #BennelongVotes #auspol @9NewsAUS pic.twitter.com/he2lmZbO56
— Chris O'Keefe (@cokeefe9) December 16, 2017
Looks like there is movement at Labor’s Bennelong headquarters: I would expect an announcement from Kristina Keneally soon.
Big “JA” cheer goes up when a dour looking Labor Party function comes up on Sky.
— Michael McGowan (@mmcgowan569) December 16, 2017
Updated
With just under 30% of the vote counted, the swing (on 2PP) is sitting at just under 4.6%.
This will bounce around a little before all the votes are counted. But it’s about right (right now, a little under) the usual result for a byelection
Updated
Here is what the Liberal Party party looks like:
A sea of blue shirts, with a smattering of names among the early crowd: Concetta Fierravanti-Wells is working the (literally) taped off media area, and I’ve seen Fiona Scott wandering around too.
We walked in right as Steve Smith brought up his double ton in the Ashes and the big cheer from the sports bar downstairs had everyone rushing to the tvs (we’re on Sky, not the ABC) to see if a booth had come in.
(The network camera crews are grumbling about it being unAustralian not to have the cricket on).
The vibe from the enclosure though is that it’s definitely a cheerful crowd. Lots of selfies and (a few) fist bumps! Despite the expected swing, at the moment the brains trust are telling the media that with a third of the vote counted they’re starting to relax: they say it’ll definitely stay on the benign side of 6%. Things could change quite dramatically, of course, but the sense at the moment is vaguely positive.
There’s a heavy rider on that statement though: we haven’t yet reached 8pm and already there is a severe shortage of party pies. If things don’t go the way they should, I expect some riled up volunteers.
And we have moved on to Batman. Trent Zimmerman is predicting a Labor loss (if David Feeney is found to have been ineligible by the high court, after the Labor MP couldn’t find his documents that he renounced his British citizenship in 2007)
I think is going to mean that Bill Shorten’s going to be very nervous if there is a byelection in Batman in Melbourne early in the new year.
The contest will be different against the Greens but it wouldn’t give him any confidence he is going to be able to hold that seat
However we will have to hear both sides spin a 5 per cent swing as a win.
The best news from tonight is we will not have to hear every single senior government minister repeat the phrase that John Alexander is “Australia’s champion...and Bennelong’s champion” for quite some time.
So – what are the thoughts on Kristina Keneally taking over from Sam Dastyari in the Senate?
A few days ago, she refused to rule “anything in or out”.
Tony Burke has just repeated that message Anne Davies reported just a few moments ago:
The only accident of history the government’s got tonight is this byelection has happened in a 9%seat.
But this is the sort of swing - Peter Dutton would be obliterated if a swing like this was on.
Christian Porter would be gone. [That’s] a whole series of very prominent government members who aren’t even members of parliament if a swing that’s anything like this happens at a general election.
Antony Green has called it: John Alexander will retain Bennelong:
There is no sign of a swing larger than that or significantly larger than that which could endanger the Liberal Party holding the seat and John Alexander will be re-elected.
Labor is trying to put the best spin on the 2 party preferred swing, which at this stage seems smaller than what they were hoping for -- though it’s jumping about and some big booths are yet to report.
We’ve all just received text messages are reminding us that Peter Dutton, Christian Porter and Craig Laundy would all lose their seats if the swing was replicated in a general election.
And the Turnbull government would lose office, of course.Expect lots of debate on how to interpret this peculiar by-election.
Liberals look set to retain Bennelong
Hearing reports the champagne is starting to be handed out at John Alexander’s party.
Almost 15% of the vote has been counted and the swing is hovering around 5% against John Alexander. (That is about standard for a byelection.)
That gives him plenty of room. I can’t see Labor winning from here.
Updated
#BennelongVotes 26.0% counted, First pref pcts - LIB 42.7, ALP 36.6, GRN 7.3, CDP 2.9, CON 4.7, OTH 5.8 - results at https://t.co/AsDnvgH3ok
— Antony Green (@AntonyGreenABC) December 16, 2017
Remember just a short time ago when Christopher Pyne was arguing that the byelection result would not have any implications for Malcolm Turnbull?
Well, he is now arguing that the byelection result will have massive implications for Bill Shorten:
“They have talked up this byelection very big … but truth is, Labor expected to do much much better … and if the Labor party doesn’t do well, it has very serious implications for Bill Shorten and his style of politics, which is the 12-hour news cycle, not even the 24-hour news cycle”
Updated
Again on the preference issue (which can not be underestimated this byelection) here is what Katharine Murphy had to say about the role of the Australian Conservatives party in Bennelong:
For folks interested in the Bernardi vote, I addressed his objectives for tonight in today's analysis: AC as the "safe" protest vote https://t.co/Fb4h3ucpwt #Bennelong #auspol
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) December 16, 2017
Just under 10% of the vote has been counted and the two-party preferred measure has jumped to a swing of 5.23%.
Updated
Tony Burke is seeing some silver linings:
This is a byelection where the people were told the government would lose its majority.
They have still voted in these sort of numbers, in a general election it would be a shift of 24 seats.”
Public service announcement:
Comments are once again open.
The jubilant mood here at the Ryde Club just became a little more muted.
Tony Burke just conceded that if Labor are only getting a 2% swing on a two party preferred basis in places like Eastwood west booth, then it will be very hard for them to win.
As Labor has been pointing out in texts, the 6% fall in Alexander’s vote seems to have gone to the Australian Conservatives and will come back as preferences to the Liberals.
They will also likely pick up the Christian Democrats preferences. Labor will get preference flows from the Greens, but the Green vote is down.
Updated
Antony Green has [obviously] not called the election as yet, but here is what he has had to say about those preference flows so far:
It’s certainly a far better result for the Liberal party than the opinion polling was indicating.
Again, more counting to come but everything is indicating the Liberal party should be able to hold the seat because the gap on first preferences is too big to close given the minor parties on the count.”
Updated
We have had 12 of the 39 booths counted.
The primary vote swing against John Alexander is still hovering around 6 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis, it looks like most of that vote Alexander has lost is flowing back to him through preferences, with the 2PP showing just under a 2 per cent swing.
Tony Burke has a theory on preferences:
One of the things that will be different here, for both the Christian Democrat vote and the Australian Conservatives’ vote is, in a byelection, they have the capacity to staff every polling booth for the entire day. In a general election, they don’t have the capacity to do that at every seat so you will find their preference, how-to-votes, which consistently go to the Liberal party – every voter will have gone into the polling booth having been offered one.”
Updated
“This isn’t your usual byelection,” Labor’s Matt Thistlethwaite says.
You can say that again. We are in for a looooooong night.
Updated
Christopher Pyne thinks Labor would be disappointed with the result so far.
We have counted less than 5% of the vote.
Updated
Carlingford: ALP up 11.4%. Liberals down 13.5%; Eastwood West Booth, ALP up 4%. Liberals down 6.6%. These have significant numbers of Chinese Australian voters.
Macquarie Park Booth. Combination of New Highrise and old Highrise plus student populations. ALP up 9.5% Liberals down 8.1%
Seven booths in and Labor is claiming a swing of about 7 per cent
Completely off Bennelong, but I do like to try to please all my readers:
Australian cricket captain Steve Smith has just chalked up a double century in the third Ashes test.
You’re welcome.
Updated
We are in for the long haul on this one, people. Don’t expect a New England style result. The booths are not only bigger, the ballot paper is fairly crowded.
I am grabbing my next coffee as we speak.
Also - keep an eye on the result of the Australian Conservatives. Cory Bernardi seized this opportunity to stick it to the Liberals. Those preferences will still flow to the Liberals, but Bernardi is going to enjoy each and every vote which comes in with AC ahead of his former colleagues. Really, really enjoy it.
The count has started rolling in
Early results (and we are talking really early. It’s two booths)
John Alexander is down just over 7%, with that going to Kristina Keneally.
But I stress, this is two booths.
Updated
Over on the ABC, Tony Burke has had a bit to say on what implications there were for the Labor campaign over the Sam Dastyari situation:
I think it had two impacts. No doubt there was a story going back and forth that that was bad for Labor. No doubt about that.
The other thing that was happening at the same time, the decision of the government to focus so heavily on that issue meant, particularly that week we had in parliament, the government had made a decision that the issues they would be talking about, and pushing hard, were not the issues that most Australians would consider the most important to them if they’re voting in a byelection.
That was a strategic call. You always make the decision if you are going on the attack that you are going to be talking politics rather than people’s household lives. The subject matter, yep, no doubt that hurt us during that time but the decision of the prime minister that that would become the major national conversation, I’m not sure how smart that was.”
Updated
Anyone wanting a bit more on what Christopher Pyne had to say about implications for Malcolm Turnbull, if the Liberals lose this byelection:
.@cpyne says the Liberal Party is ‘absolutely committed’ to @TurnbullMalcolm and the result of the Bennelong by-election will have no implications on his leadership. MORE: https://t.co/OBLbGPTYXn pic.twitter.com/eBMGeRh2eh
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) December 16, 2017
Greetings from the Ryde-Eastwood Leagues Club in Sydney’s northern suburbs, where the only thing hotter than the bain marie is John Alexander and the only thing brighter than the lights from the pokies room is the zeal for democratic expression.
The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has set up this byelection as a vote of colossal significance. The people of Bennelong aren’t just picking a local MP, they’re deciding the fate of “thousands of jobs and the future of millions of Australians”.
And well he should. We all know how crucial this election is and why. Not least because if the Liberal party doesn’t hang on here, one of those thousands of lost jobs could be his.
Recognising this, the government has shipped in the big guns from Canberra for polling day.
Besides Turnbull himself, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, defence minister Marise Payne and the leader of the house, Chris Pyne, have all been spotted handing out for Alexander in Bennelong on Saturday.
I’ll let you know what they all get up to tonight once they show.
The polling says Alexander is predicted to hang on tonight, but if he doesn’t, it’s hard to think of a more suitable venue to watch it all unfold.
When oblivion comes I want the VB on tap and the cricket on loud.
Updated
There are no challenges for Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership,” Christopher Pyne says.
... The Liberal party is absolutely committed to Malcolm Turnbull from here through to the next election.”
But I can’t imagine the party will be overly happy if the Liberals lose a seat with a 9% margin.
Updated
“A win is a win is a win, in my book,” Christopher Pyne says.
He says a loss will not be a comment on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Let’s remember that, if there is a win, and the government line is that this is a vote of confidence in the prime minister.
For those playing along at home, you can follow the tally room results as they roll in, here.
Updated
If sheer number of posters, how-to-votes and volunteers have any impact, then Kristina Keneally and Labor have carpet-bombed the seat of Bennelong.
At polling places throughout the seat Keneally smiled out from dozens of posters, outnumbering the Liberal candidate, John Alexander, sometimes 10 to 1.
So overwhelming was the Keneally paraphernalia that some polling places looked more like ALP headquarters.
According to the NSW ALP, they have had 4,000 volunteers working the seat over the past 32 days. They say they have made 60,000 personal phone calls and doorknocked 50,000 homes. That’s pretty much every voter. Volunteers came from all over the state to help today.
It was like pollie bingo at most polling booths. Both sides have wheeled out the big guns. with Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten out on the hustings along with senior ministers and shadows.
Polling indicates that Alexander will be returned but with a reduced margin.
Updated
Over on the ABC, Trent Zimmerman is also giving his two cents’ worth.
Asked what a loss would mean for Malcolm Turnbull, he says:
Let’s cross that bridge when we get to it during the course of the evening.”
I’m not sure he meant to say “when” there.
Updated
Christopher Pyne is on Sky and he says he hasn’t picked up on a mood for change – at least at the booth he was at.
“There certainly wasn’t a mood for kicking out John Alexander at North Ryde today”.
But he adds “but that could change”.
Let’s also remember that given how close this byelection is to Christmas, postal votes are going to play a role.
Labor senator Matt Thistlethwaite also says he thinks John Alexander will win:
“I think John Alexander will be returned, there wasn’t that smashing feeling that there was a massive swing on,” he says.
Labor has been playing down its chances from day one. It would need at least a 10% swing to take the seat.
Updated
Polls have closed
Let the count begin.
Get those predictions rolling in the comments.
Polls are almost closed – but here is a taste of what we were talking about, in regards to where this campaign went.
Bill Shorten gave his verdict on the campaign today:
I think that if Mr Turnbull had his time again he wouldn’t have engaged in his trademark overreach and his promotion of China-phobia. There is no doubt that he wanted to pursue Senator Dastyari, and Sam Dastyari did make some very serious lapses of judgement. But we all know about this Prime Minister.
His classic trademark is to show poor judgement and overreach on an issue. The fact that from the Government of China to Chinese Australians, all universally expressing concern that the chief spokesman for Australia is engaging in dividing the community.”
And Malcolm Turnbull responded:
I mean what does it say about the desperation of the Labor Party, that they would try to suggest that I am ‘China-phobic’ or have got something against Chinese people? I mean, there are one million Australians of Chinese ancestry, one of them is my granddaughter, Lucy and my granddaughter.
I mean, Labor is desperate and it is really, it really should give us all cause for pause to think that in their desperation they want to turn Australians against each other.
But you know something? John and I and the people of Bennelong will not be dissuaded by that, will not be persuaded by that.
This is desperation tactics from Labor. It just shows that they don’t have an answer to the challenges that we’ve set out for them.”
The final day on the hustings was certainly a warm one in Sydney – and of course Mike Bowers was out and about in it.
You have to feel sorry for the people of Bennelong. Given how much is riding on this by-election, voters have been inundated with campaign materials, robo calls and volunteer door knocks.
Both sides have been accused of dirty tactics and going too far. And it is not just those handing out campaign materials. Both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull have been accused of over-egging with their rhetoric. Turnbull seized on the Sam Dastyari story , questioning his loyalty to Australia, while Shorten accused Turnbull of being “china-phobic”.
At least it is almost over.
Election corflutes for the Electorate of Bennelong outside the polling booth at East Ryde Public School in Sydney this morning. Photograph: Mike Bowers for the Guardian
Ben Raue has written up a nice piece at what is at stake here. You’ll find that here with an explanation of why polling single seats is so difficult:
Alexander won a third term in 2016 with a 9.7% margin. National polls suggest a national swing to Labor of up to 5%, but byelections often see larger swings. A 10% swing is definitely achievable.
There have been four polls in Bennelong – two gave Alexander a lead of 3%, while the other two had the race tied. Seat polling is not a perfect science, but these polls suggest a sizeable swing to Labor. Trying to make a more precise prediction risks leaving egg on your face.
There are 106,000 registered voters in Bennelong. The big question though is how many are actually home this weekend and what sort of voter turnout can be expected the weekend before Christmas.
One of the big problems faced by Labor is that most uni students who live around Macquarie University in the electorate finished up some weeks ago, and many would have headed overseas or to their families, before the byelection was called.
As for families heading off for holidays, the Australian Electoral Commission says 13,000 voters have done a pre-poll vote, and 16,000 have applied for a postal vote. That doesn’t mean all of them will translate into actual votes – but its a significant number and if it’s close, we might be waiting some time while postal votes are received and counted.
Postal votes have a higher proportion of 55-plus voters because they know what a post box is. So the Liberals will feel more confident than Labor if its comes down to the wire.
That leaves about 75,000 voters to vote in person. Generally turnout is lower in byelections – around 80%. But this ain’t any ordinary byelection.
Polls close at 6pm
Updated
Whoever wins the seat is the simplistic winner.
But what will be a political win for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull? And what will be a “win” for Labor.
Over the last 24 hours each side has been seeking to define success in Bennelong.
For Turnbull, obviously a loss would be catastrophic – but not the most likely result.
The polls suggest John Alexander who holds the seat with a 9.8% margin, will be returned with a reduced majority.
Labor has held the seat just once since it was proclaimed as a seat in 1949, when the high profile TV personality Maxine McKew, beat John Howard in the 2007 Rudd landslide.
But what if John Alexander just scrapes back? How to interpret the swing?
Updated
Just taking a look at Bennelong, it has been a Liberal seat – except when the Ruddslide saw the Chinese community shift to Labor in 2007, when Maxine McKew won it for Labor for the first time in 33 years. It went back to the Liberals at the 2010 election, though, when John Alexander first won it.
But some fast stats, courtesy of the 2016 census, which point to why the Chinese vote has been considered so important.
- Population – 168,948
- Chinese ancestry – 44,341
- Born in China – 22,527
- Both parents born overseas – 61.2%
Updated
Good evening
Welcome to a special edition of politics live, as we follow the results from the Bennelong byelection.
If the polls are to be believed, it’s meant to be a tight contest. If the commentary is to be believed, it is not just the fate of Bennelong’s representation at risk – a bad result for the Coalition could mean some rough sailing for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
A loss will also mean the end of the Turnbull government’s oneseat majority. Independent Cathy McGowan has already ruled out become Speaker to help the government bolster its numbers on the floor, so there is a lot riding on this result.
Polls close in just under an hour, so we will bring you all the results as they start rolling in.
But the campaigning has not stopped. Kristina Keneally is still at the polls, with Labor throwing everything it has at the seat. Labor built its campaign around “send Malcolm Turnbull a message”. Turnbull has taken up the challenge over the last four weeks. The prime minister has been out in force in support of John Alexander, along with senior members of his cabinet.
The latest poll suggests the swing is on – but will it be enough to cause an upset?
Let’s find out.
Updated
