ST. LOUIS _ What are the chances Carlos Martinez is able to be in the Cardinals' rotation on opening day?
We won't know until January, so why not invest in Dallas Keuchel, if you can get him for one or two years? Perhaps he's around $14 million a year? That bumps your payroll up to around $166 million, but it's an investment in peace-of-mind. You would have your rotation set, and if everybody is healthy, then you've got a quality sixth starter in the bullpen _ or as a trade piece.
Last Feb. 20, I was against a Keuchel signing, writing on these pages that I believed in Dakota Hudson to fill Martinez's spot in 2019, which worked out (I was wrong though on Michael Wacha, who had a rough season as a starter in his own rotation spot, and it nearly came back to bite the Cards).
This year, the Martinez situation is different. This isn't a knock on potentially reliable starters Genesis Cabrera, Ryan Helsley and Junior Fernandez (or a Daniel Ponce de Leon or Austin Gomber). It's just saying that Hudson had a lot of professional similarities entering 2019 that Jack Flaherty had entering 2018.
As for entering 2020, it's hard to envy the Cardinals' conundrum.
Normally with a team, the executives have a spot open in the rotation, and so, they fill it. But what if the executives might/maybe/could-possibly-but-we-need-to-see-if-we-do have a spot open? Such is the case with Martinez, who might very well still have some All-Star left in his right arm, but the Cards won't know until possibly January.
By then, with some diagnosis in Jupiter, Fla., the Cards could know how well Martinez's offseason workouts have gone. But by then, will Keuchel be gone?
Keuchel seems to make the most sense. A sensible get, if the Cards can work out a deal to get him for one or two years (he turns 32 on New Year's Day). He's a lefty. He's been on their radar. He gets groundballs. He has postseason pedigree. And did we mention he's a lefty? Might be forgetting someone, but it seems like the last lefty starter the Cards had was Lefty himself.
Last season, Dallas signed in midseason with Atlanta � and ended up pitching in the postseason against St. Louis. For the 2019 Braves, Keuchel had a 3.75 ERA and a pretty high 1.37 WHIP, but his strand rate was higher than ever before.
The injury history of free agent lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu is frightening, so even though he was a Cy Young contender last year doesn't mean he's going to be one for years to come. And as for another Cy Young contender, five years is a lot of years for any pitcher in his 30s, even if he's just precisely 30, as was the case with Madison Bumgarner, who signed with Arizona.
With Martinez, all of it is a gamble. Wait until you can confirm if Carlos is good to start, but if he's not good to start, Keuchel and others could be unavailable.
Or you can sign Keuchel today, and have a happy holidays knowing you might've splurged but it was on a reliable winning starting pitcher (while you wait to see if your former All-Star starter can prove to be reliable again).
