Ideological and political lines are being dizzyingly crossed in West Bengal in the midst of a gruelling eight-phase Assembly election. The Trinamool Congress, which has been at the helm for 10 years, is battling both deep anti-incumbency and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which sniffed power in the State after the 2019 Lok Sabha election and has thrown all its might into the fray. The tactics being used by all — competitive populism, engineering defections, polarisation, carrot-and-threat policy, personal attacks, hyper-nationalism and Bengali pride — have turned the election into an ugly campaign from which Bengal will not emerge unscathed.
In 2011, the Trinamool came to power with the slogan of ‘paribartan’ (change). In 2021, the BJP is pledging ‘asal paribartan’, or ‘real change’. The party says if voted to power, it will announce the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act at its first Cabinet meeting. Silent about CAA in Assam, the BJP came under pressure in Bengal from the Matuas, Hindu migrants from Bangladesh, who live mostly in the North 24 Parganas and Nadia districts, and can influence outcomes of 30-35 Assembly seats.
But will the Matuas agree to the provisions of the CAA which require an applicant for citizenship to disclose that he/she has been an illegal immigrant? There are whispers of discontent in the community. The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool government had passed a resolution against the CAA; the BJP has not specified how it plans to go about implementing the law. There is unease among the Muslim community in the State too, which forms almost 27% of the population. A year ago, the State BJP leadership had said there are one crore Bangladeshi-Muslims in Bengal and that the party was serious about driving them out.
Fickle loyalties
The Trinamool and BJP manifestos are competitive and similar. Both are “doling” out a bonanza, says Prof. Samir Das, who teaches Political Science at Calcutta University. Among other things, the BJP has promised 33% reservation for women in government jobs, free education for girls from kindergarten to postgraduation levels, free public transport for women, and an increase in widow pension from ₹1,000 to ₹3,000, to counter Ms. Banerjee’s successful welfare schemes for girls and women.
The electorate watched helplessly as politicians hopped from party A to party B. Some jumped ship voluntarily from the Trinamool to the BJP, which won 18 out of 42 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and saw its vote share increase from 4% in the 2011 Assembly election to over 40%. Others, after being denied a ticket, changed colour, throwing questions of beliefs to the wind.
Towards the end of the Left Front regime, senior CPI(M) leaders would rue in private about not being able to control “local corruption” and “lumpen elements”. Riding on the wave of two violent anti-land acquisition movements at Nandigram and Singur, the Trinamool Congress stormed into power in 2011, ending three decades of Left rule. Even then, it was evident that the Trinamool, lacking in both ideology and organisation, had broken into Left and Congress ranks to increase its numbers.
Cut to 2021, in one of the most polarised elections in the State, the pattern is chillingly familiar. A “lateral shift” has been taking place both at the ground and leadership levels. Mukul Roy, once a right-hand man to Ms. Banerjee, and Suvendu Adhikari, one of the most well-known faces in the Trinamool, are now with the BJP.
Bengal is redefining the horse-trading phrase ‘aaya ram gaya ram’ of the 1960s, when an MLA from Haryana changed his party thrice in a day, which eventually led to the anti-defection law of 1985. But the law has not been able to stop such switchovers.
What are voters to make of all this? In his speeches, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has attacked the Trinamool leadership for corruption and promoting family politics. The BJP has found it difficult to pick candidates from within its ranks, putting a question mark on its bench strength. If 30-35 of the candidates announced by the BJP are from its bitter rival Trinamool, what is changing?
The BJP has picked up the Trinamool poll slogan Khela hobe (game on) and raised a victory cry even before the election is over with Khela shesh (game over). The Left appears to have done a course correction, fielding young, feisty leaders like Meenakshi Mukherjee (Nandigram) and Aishe Ghosh (Jamuria) and using digital media with catchy songs and memes to reach out to the young. But the tie-up with Furfura cleric Abbas Siddique has raised eyebrows, with many fearing it may be counter-productive.
Overall, the campaign has been highly aggressive, and the viciousness ensures that whoever wins, democracy is the loser.
sudipta.datta@thehindu.co.in
