It's Kentucky Derby week, the time of year when serious horseplayers pore over every detail of the lucrative betting race and casual gamblers set aside a few bucks in hopes of a nice payday.
Watching your Derby selection cross the finish line first is a real thrill, but _ with favorites winning the race in each of the past five years _ the win payouts haven't been great of late, unless you've been putting some serious money on the line.
The greater the risk, the greater the reward, and Derby Day is a great time to go for a big one.
In lieu of a simple win bet Saturday, how about taking a dive into the trifecta pool?
For those new to the sport _ and those who check in only on big days like this one _ the trifecta is correctly betting the top three finishers in a race. There are many ways to make the wager _ ranging in cost and odds _ and the winning payouts on Derby day have often been outstanding.
The mutuel field for the Kentucky Derby was eliminated following the 2000 edition of the race _ upping the number of betting possibilities to 20 in a full field _ and in the 17 runnings since, a winning $1 trifecta ticket has paid more than $200 on 15 occasions. Twelve of the past 17 Kentucky Derbys have featured payouts of more than $1,000 on a $1 ticket.
Last year's Derby trifecta _ with betting favorite Always Dreaming winning the race _ paid a whopping $8,297 on a $1 ticket when long shots Lookin At Lee and Battle of Midway finished in the next two spots.
Not a bad day at the track, if you had it.
That Derby was also a perfect example that trifecta payouts on the first Saturday in May can be impressive even if a favorite (or two) finish in the top three. (It's important to note that the money that goes in the win pool and the trifecta pool is separate, so a horse's odds on the tote board aren't the same as its odds in other bets like trifectas, but those win odds are usually a good indicator of the horse's support among exotic bettors).
Four years ago, California Chrome finished first as the favorite and Danza was third as the third betting choice. The $1 trifecta that year _ aided by long shot Commanding Curve in second _ paid more than $1,700.
The year before, Orb and Revolutionary finished first and third, respectively, as the top two betting choices. Golden Soul, a long shot, finished second, and the $1 trifecta paid nearly $3,500.
In the last 10 years, the $1 Derby trifecta has paid more than $1,000 eight times. The only exceptions were two years ago, when the top three betting choices (Nyquist, Exaggerator and Gun Runner) finished 1-2-3 and the winning ticket paid $86; and three years ago, when 5-2 favorite American Pharoah was first, and two of the next three betting choices finished second and third. That one paid $101.
So, how should you bet it?
You could try a trifecta box _ where you pick a set number of horses and they can finish in any 1-2-3 order _ but that can get expensive in a hurry. The cost of the bet correlates with how many combinations are possible, and a "$1 bet" means each combination costs $1.
For example: a $1 trifecta box with three horses would ultimately cost $6, because there are six different finishing combinations among them:
1, 2, 3
1, 3, 2
2, 1, 3
2, 3, 1
3, 1, 2
3, 2, 1
Make sense?
A $1 box with four horses would cost $24, five horses would cost $60, and so on.
With so many horses _ and so many combinations _ you're very unlikely to hit a three-horse box in this race, and there are better ways to spend $24 or more on the Derby. (It's worth noting here that you can also bet trifectas with a base cost of 50 cents instead of $1. Keep in mind that half the cost also means half the payout.)
Instead of a box, make a stand with the horse you like the most.
By "keying" one horse in the winner's spot of your trifecta, you can save a little money while also keeping alive your chances at a big payday.
With the money likely being spread around Saturday among several contenders talented enough to be favorites in other years, landing on the right winner could be huge, even if that winner is one of the top betting choices.
Say you like Mendelssohn, the impressive winner of the UAE Derby.
You could key him in the top spot, then put a total of six horses underneath him in the second and third spots. That would cost $30 on a $1 bet (and $15 on a 50-cent bet).
You'd need Mendelssohn to win in that scenario, but if any combination of your other six horses comes in second and third, you'd likely be in for a pretty good day.
If you go that route, be sure to sprinkle in some favorites (such as Justify, Magnum Moon or Bolt d'Oro) and some high-upside long shots (like Flameaway, My Boy Jack or Hofburg) among your secondary choices.
Then sit back and hope you hit a big one.
And if you really, really like a particular long shot, don't be afraid to put him in that top spot. The Derby comes around only once a year, after all.
Back in 2005, it was 50-1 shot Giacomo who took home the roses with 71-1 shot Closing Argument finishing second. The second betting choice, Afleet Alex, was third.
The $1 trifecta payout that day? $66,567.40.
Good luck.
