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St. Louis Post-Dispatch
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Sport
Ben Frederickson

Ben Frederickson: If non-Pujols free agent additions don't improve, Cardinals will need trade deadline do-over

Even Albert Pujols has limits.

So far, the Cooperstown-bound slugger’s reunion with the Cardinals has gone about as well as any realistic observer could have hoped.

So much so that Cardinal Nation, a fan base full of National League loyalists, is cheering a designated hitter.

Pujols, the recipient of a one-year, $5 million deal that will surely wind up making the Cardinals more money that it cost them, is powering up against lefties, as expected. He’s averaging .335 with a .389 on-base percentage and a .613 slugging percentage against southpaws. What worked for the Dodgers last season is working for the Cardinals now. And yes, it's way more fun to watch it work for the Cardinals than the Dodgers.

Pujols’ numbers against righties (.125/.290/.232) are grim, despite the spin. That should have been expected, too. Manager Oliver Marmol, for a numbers guy, often overlooks the evidence. Then again, he doesn’t always have an available alternative that makes it easy to sit Pujols. I get it.

And whether Pujols is hitting or sitting, he’s mentoring impressive rookie Juan Yepez and other young players who are smart enough to listen and take diligent notes. There is real value in that.

Pujols, it can be said without hesitation, is meeting fair expectations.

His peers from his 2022 Cardinals free-agent class can’t say the same.

The Cardinals played it safe in free agency this past offseason. Fifty-five games is enough of a sample size to say initial results have been substandard. How the following five free-agent additions rebound from mostly disappointing starts could play a big role in determining the Cardinals' trade-deadline needs.

Steven Matz, the headline of this free-agent Cardinals class, is nearing his return from a shoulder impingement that landed him on the injured list in late May. Matz has a 6.03 ERA through the first nine starts of his four-year, $44 million contract. He has two quality starts and three starts that lasted three or fewer innings. Opponents are averaging .284 and slugging .484 against Matz, whose groundball percentage (36.9%) is on pace to be a career-low in a season not shortened by pandemic. His career groundball percentage, for context, is 46.2%. Matz has MLB’s 12th-highest ERA of any of the 139 starters who have pitched more than 30 innings so far this season.

Drew VerHagen signed a two-year, $5.5 million deal as an undefined swingman type. He was offered a crack at making the rotation and pitched his way to the cusp of it at spring training. Yet he has made zero starts for the Cardinals despite injuries to starters Matz, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks. That's concerning. Especially now that the Cardinals are open to using openers. After overcoming an injured-list stint for a hip impingement, the right-hander has appeared 11 times in relief and pitched one inning or less in all but five of those appearances. He has a 4.02 ERA through 15.2 innings and a role that remains cloudy as June progresses. If he secures a higher-leverage, late-game spot, this one could still work out.

Corey Dickerson was picked up late on a one-year, $5 million deal because the team hoped the left-handed hitting outfielder and the team’s hitting staff could work together to revive the power Dickerson had flashed earlier in the 33-year-old’s career. Dickerson homered 20-plus times in three seasons between 2014 and 2017. He had two home runs and a .286 slugging percentage this season before landing on the injured list with a calf strain. Dickerson was specifically targeted to help the Cardinals power up against right-handed pitching as a platoon piece to the team’s planned designated-hitter approach. He is on pace for career-lows in batting average (.194), on-base percentage (.245) and slugging percentage. Dickerson against right-handed pitching has an on-base plus slugging percentage of .548. That’s barely better than Pujols. This season left-handed designated hitters against right-handed pitching are averaging an OPS of .712. As of Monday, 289 major leaguers had totaled 100 or more plate appearances this season. Dickerson’s .531 OPS ranked 275th on that list.

T.J. McFarland’s one-year, $2.5 million deal has produced 18 appearances (20 innings) and a 7.65 ERA. Opponents are averaging .363 with a .416 on-base percentage and a .588 slugging percentage against McFarland, who is on pace for a career-high hard-hit percentage (58%) and a career-low groundball percentage (52.9%).

Nick Wittgren signed a one-year, $1.2 million deal to compete for a high-leverage relief role. The right-hander has a 5.06 ERA through 23 appearances (21.1 innings). After allowing just one run in nine April appearances, Wittgren has a 6.60 ERA (14 appearances, 15 innings) since the start of May. He is tracking toward career-highs in opponent batting average (.298), on-base percentage (.388) and on-base plus slugging percentage (.828) while posting a career-low in strikeout percentage (10.1%).

With eight weeks to go before the trade deadline, Marmol’s club is in a tight race for the division despite injuries that could have derailed momentum. There should be no discussion or debate about if this team deserves trade-deadline help; it does. What will soon be determined is how much of the team's trade-deadline needs can be classified as front office free-agent do-overs.

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