MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for Bellator 296.
Bellator 296 takes place Friday at Accor Arena in Paris. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, in which I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for select main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So without further ado …
Thibault Gouti (-150) vs. Kane Mousah (+120)
Kicking off the main card on Showtime is a lightweight fight between Thibault Gouti and Kane Mousah that has fireworks written all over it.
Both men are action fighters who throw heavy hands on their feet and are also competent ground strikers when the action hits the floor.
Although I could see Mousah having success in both categories, I find myself reluctantly siding with the output and aggression of Gouti (who is undoubtedly have the crowd at his back).
I’ll officially pick Gouti to win by decision, but a stoppage on either side wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.
Douglas Lima (+125) vs. Costello van Steenis (-150)
Filling out the main card is a middleweight attraction between Douglas Lima and Costello van Steenis.
I’m happy to see that Lima is no longer killing himself with drastic weight cuts to welterweight, but I’m not sure I like his chances here.
Aside from the fact that van Steenis is an aggressive kickboxer who will give the judges more to score, the native of The Netherlands also has underrated takedowns and a top game that he keeps in his back pocket.
If Lima doesn’t make any serious adjustments to his output up at middleweight, then I see this being a long night at the office for him.
The pick is van Steenis by decision.
Brent Primus (+260) vs. Mansour Barnaoui (-350)
The co-main event in Paris features a quarterfinal fight in Bellator’s lightweight grand prix between Brent Primus and Mansour Barnaoui.
Despite it being shocking to some to see a former Bellator champ at underdog odds, I can completely understand the sentiment in the betting line above.
Even though Primus is a proven Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Barnaoui is an incredibly crafty grappler who has only lost to some of the very best.
Mansour Barnaoui FIGHT WEEK
1–0 #Bellator
6–0 Road FC
1–1 KSW
2–0 BAMMA
2–2 M-1 GlobalOne of the most unique MMA grapplers today, @Mansourbarnaoui caught the attention of many with his dynamic guard and sweeps
A 🧵 summary of his last 15 bouts spanning 5 organizations pic.twitter.com/HRBTnzaqRN
— Alexander Volkara France (@VolkaraFrance) May 8, 2023
Baranoui is also a dynamic southpaw, whose strikes and counters could be extra potent in this matchup.
A Primus upset wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world, but I’ll officially pick Baranoui to win via a first-round knockout (knee).
Gegard Mousasi (-275) vs. Fabian Edwards (+220)
The main event for Bellator 296 features a potential title eliminator at middleweight between Gegard Mousasi and Fabian Edwards.
I was really impressed by Edwards’ game after going back to watch his tape, but I’m still not quite sold on the English fighter in this spot.
Mousasi may be operating within the advanced stages of his career, but the 37-year-old is still an incredibly well-rounded talent who will have answers in almost every department.
The former Strikeforce champ also careers a solid record when fighting notable southpaws, officially standing at 6-1 in his career.
Unless Mousasi shows up completely shot and/or gets caught by an Edwards elbow off the break, then I suspect that he should have enough to edge out the younger man on the scorecards.
The pick is Mousasi by decision.
