MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 241.
Bellator 241 takes place Friday at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Patricio Freire (30-4 MMA, 18-4 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Juan Archuleta (Sept. 28, 2019)
- Camp: Pitbull Brothers MMA (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator featherweight and lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Explosive athlete
^ Deceptive distance closer
+ Accurate hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Dangerous guillotine choke
Pedro Carvalho (11-3 MMA, 4-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 24 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Submission win over Sam Sicilia (Sept. 7, 2019)
- Camp: SBG Ireland (Portugal/Ireland)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Muay Thai/kickboxing experience
+ 2 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ High-output fighter
+ Smooth striking flow
^ Shifts stance/variates attacks
+ Hard body kicks
+ Serviceable scrambling and wrestling
+ Transitions well from topside
+ Active and attacking guard
Point of interest: Pressure vs. counters
The main event in Uncasville features a fantastic title fight that will take place within the confines of Bellator’s featherweight grand prix.
Starting on the feet, we will likely be privy to a battle between a contender who comes with breakneck pressure and a veteran who packs emphatic counters.
Initially hitting the Bellator scene as a heavy-handed brawler with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Particio Freire has steadily sharpened his striking skills during his formative fighting years with the promotion. He quickly demonstrated the ability to work forward off of feints and pressure, as well as be able to sit back and counter when needed.
In recent times, we have seen Freire and other fighters from his camp embrace more of a karate-centric form of kickboxing. Staying lighter on his toes while maintaining a longer stance, the 32-year-old can either enter space quickly to intercept his opposition (as seen in his lightweight title fight with Michael Chandler) or exit to safety when appropriate.
Improvements aside, Freire’s newfound role of playing the matador could get tricky if he does not show the ability to tame his young counterpart early and often.
Enter Pedro Carvalho.
A Portuguese-born fighter who is now a product of SBG Ireland, Carvalho has been steadily piecing together a complete mixed martial arts game since his time spent learning lessons on the regional scene of Portugal.
Although Carvalho appears to have absorbed some characteristics from his stablemate, Conor McGregor, via osmosis, the title challenger conducts himself more like former SBG fighter Paddy Holohan. Springing forward straight out of the gates, Carvalho is no stranger to shifting stances as he shows to be effective from either side.
Whether launching jabs and leg kicks from the orthodox stance or hitting crosses and crushing body kicks from southpaw, Carvalho flows seamlessly in regards to striking in combination and target variation. But given that Freire is capable of countering in multiple ways, I will be curious to see if Carvalho comes into this contest more defensively mindful of the consequences at hand.
Next point of interest: Swimming with sharks
Point of interest: Swimming with sharks
Considering the skill deficit on paper, I will be curious to see how much Carvalho looks to test Freire in the grappling department.
Despite owning a superior rank in jiu-jitsu (something that does not necessarily mean anything in MMA), Freire commands an underrated wrestling game that will provide a decent hurdle for the title challenger.
Training for years under the tutelage of acclaimed wrestler Eric Albarracin (wrestling coach to the likes of Henry Cejudo and Paulo Costa), Freire has been able to improve his wrestling ability by applying high-level techniques to his already impressive athleticism. Whether he’s balancing on one leg while shutting down takedowns or changing his level to dump an opponent, the 14-year pro has been increasingly difficult to control over the most recent stretch of his career.
Freire also has gotten tighter and more conservative with his jiu-jitsu prowess, playing more of a positional savvy game when the occasions call for it. Nevertheless, Freire still carries a deadly guillotine choke for overzealous opponents who are looking to grapple – which could come in handy for this matchup.
A ready and willing grappler, Carvalho will often find himself following his striking combinations into close spaces that give way to takedowns (for either party). Whether Carvalho’s changing his level for a shot or going with the flow when it comes to taking the ride his opposition is offering him, the SBG fighter – for the most part – appears comfortable with offering answers from almost any spot on the mat.
Should he achieve a top position, Carvalho transitions competently as he works toward positional advancements and submissions. And when he’s put on his back, the man from Portugal offers up a plethora of guard attacks where he turns failed submission attempts in scrambling opportunities.
I’m not sure I’d bet on Carvalho to out-grapple Freire from Jump Street, but the 24-year-old talent does work at a voracious pace that could make things interesting as the contest wears on.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are very confident in the champion to retain, listing Freire -900 and Carvalho +600 as of this writing.
Although I disagree with a betting line this wide (both for this matchup and in general given the nature of MMA), I can understand why money keeps coming in on Freire. The Bellator double champ has defeated multiple generations of fighters in and out of the featherweight division, as he appears to be operating in prime form.
That said, Freire is not beyond being stung when engaging in firefights, and you can count on his current counterpart bringing the chaos. Should Carvalho catch Freire with a shot he does not see coming or, worse, hurts him to the body off of one of his patent liver kicks, then do not be surprised to see Carvalho – who has the skills to do so – follow up for the finish.
As for me, it’s difficult to ultimately not side with Freire to capitalize on the counters that Carvalho’s stylings will likely give him. Aggression is a potent two-way street in MMA – one that Freire has successfully navigated much more than his 24-year-old foe. For that reason, I’ll pick Freire to force a stoppage via strikes from a rear mount late into the third round.
Prediction: Freire inside the distance
