MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for Bellator 238.
Bellator 238 takes place Saturday at The Forum in Inglewood, Calif. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
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Darrion Caldwell (13-3 MMA, 10-2 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision win over Henry Corrales (Sept. 28, 2019)
- Camp: Pinnacle MMA (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator bantamweight champion
+ NCAA Division I wrestling champion
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 2 knockout victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Athletic and explosive mover
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Steadily improved striking ability
+ Superb takedown ability
^ Seamlessly chains and transitions
+ Excellent top game and control
^ Floats and rides positions well
Adam Borics (14-0 MMA, 5-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 26 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
- Last fight: TKO win over Pat Curran (Sept. 7, 2019)
- Camp: Hard Knocks 365 (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Muay Thai and karate background
+ 4 knockout victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good footwork and distance management
+ Technically sound striking
^ Can variate from leg kicks to flying knees
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Creates scrambles and submission opportunities
Point of interest: Exploding into space
The co-main event for Bellator 238 features another installment of the promotion’s featherweight grand prix, where we will be privy to yet another collision course of hot prospects.
Despite being an accoladed wrestler who unabashedly works toward his strengths early and often, Darrion Caldwell has been steadily rounding out his game since stepping onto the Bellator stage.
Operating out of a southpaw stance, Caldwell will usually circle on the outside as he offers up different feints and fakes. Utilizing his exceptionally long frame and reach, the 32-year-old launches disruptive jabs and crosses that can halt his opponent’s initial momentum.
Embracing his southpaw sensibilities, Caldwell also carries hard kicks that he variates between the body, head and legs – though I’m not sure how much he’ll want to play that game with a layered threat like Adam Borics.
An undefeated muay Thai fighter who comes from a kenpo karate background, Borics’ striking style carries a unique, explosive accuracy that attaches itself nicely to the “art of eight limbs.”
Demonstrating a keen sense of distance management (likely another byproduct of his karate background), Borics stays measured with healthy doses of jabs, hooks and leg kicks, variating his targets and timing in the process. And when the 26-year-old talent senses an opportunity, he’s not shy about taking it via the form of flying knees.
Akin to an NBA player who is about to hit a slam dunk, Borics will launch a knee into the air off of his rear leg in order to punctuate his presence off of his lead leg/side. Even though this technique serves as a solid takedown deterrent on highlight reels, I do wonder how much Borics will willingly throw himself out of position given Caldwell’s ultimate goal.
Next point of interest: Warding off wrestling
Point of interest: Warding off wrestling
Considering that Caldwell is one of the best wrestlers to ever compete in high-level MMA thus far, the crux of his fights is arguably still a clear one.
We all know Caldwell can pretty much take anyone down south of 155 pounds, but can he keep his opposition grounded in meaningful enough ways to produce a victory?
The former bantamweight champion has had prior stumblings from submission losses to pacing issues, but has shown to be a nightmare to deal with on the mats otherwise.
Even in college, the All-American’s funky style befuddled fellow wrestlers en route to his NCAA championship. Add in athleticism to already stellar technique, and what you have is a problem that can be difficult to solve.
Aside from the two times he’s been caught sticking his neck out too far on a shot, Caldwell has shown a formidable takedown ability that we’ll likely get to see on Saturday night. From chaining off of failed attempts to picking ankles that make themselves available, Caldwell can change directions at the drop of a dime.
Given the flying-knee threats that Borics brings to the table, I suspect that Caldwell will be leaning on more funky and unorthodox entries. Still, even if Caldwell is able to get around Borics’ takedown barriers, the American will be far from out of the woods.
A natural submission grappler, Borics conducts himself accordingly in scrambles and will get right to work from his back if taken down to the mat. Cross-training with Henri Hooft at Hard Knocks 365 in South Florida, Borics has also been able to work on his wrestling with Bellator standouts like Logan Storley and Michael Chandler –– work that I would argue shows whenever the Hungarian prospect is forced to scramble.
Whether he’s flat on his back or stuck against the fence, Borics seems very difficult to discourage, as he’s usually only one beat away from fighting grips as he looks to intelligently turtle back to his feet. These skills, of course, will be put the ultimate test when pitted against the wrestling and riding ability of Caldwell – who will snatch up a neck if it becomes available.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
As I predicted in the breakdown video attached, Caldwell is your slight favorite at -120, while money steadily sprinkles on Borics, who is the underdog at +100 as of this writing.
I believe that Caldwell is the deserved favorite due to his wrestling ability, but I have a hard time siding with him here. You could honestly argue that each man is the stylistic antithesis of the other, but I suspect that this styles clash may favor Borics in a five-round affair.
It is of my belief that there’s a quiet trend in MMA in regards to the long-hailed effectiveness of wrestlers, which is to say that if a wrestler – no matter their credential or camp – does not either develop quality striking or submission grappling in ways that can ensure them victory, then they will eventually be figured out at the higher levels.
Essentially, the metagame in mixed martial arts is continually growing underneath our noses, as you no longer have to be an outlier like Georges St-Pierre to effectively wrestle or understand wrestling in MMA.
Now, it is not uncommon for even mid-to-lower tier fighters to demonstrate a level of technical efficacy to their get-up games, which means that the offensive parties usually have to dish out much more energy in order to impose the rides and mat returns that are necessary for them to maintain position. Factor in a five-round fight and judging criteria that’s supposedly shifting in favor of damage over control, and I find it harder to be as confident in the proverbial wrestler on paper.
Don’t get me wrong: Caldwell is more than just a wrestler and has skills to finish fights, I just believe that the former champ will have to show those skills early and often to give himself his best chances for victory.
Borics, who showed some important patience and composure in his last three fights, is a multi-layered threat that seems to find most of his finishes off of takedown attempts or the subsequent scrambles (finishing fights via front-chokes, flying knees and rear-naked-chokes off of said scrambling scenarios). With that in mind, the pick is for Borics to survive the initial takedown waves early, eventually breaking Caldwell down and finding his back late in the third round for a submission win.
