MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 238.
Bellator 238 takes place Saturday at The Forum in Inglewood, Calif. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Julia Budd (13-2 MMA, 7-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 36 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
- Last fight: TKO win over Olga Rubin (July 12, 2019)
- Camp: Gibson MMA (Canada)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator featherweight champion
+ Pro muay Thai experience (10-2 record)
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Fundamentally sound striker
^ Works the body and legs well
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Knees, trips and takedowns
+ Solid positional grappler
^ Works well from topside
Cris Cyborg (21-2 MMA, 0-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 34 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Decision win over Felicia Spencer (July 27, 2019)
- Camp: Cris Cyborg MMA Fitness (California)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC, Strikeforce and Invicta FC titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 17 KO victories
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Evolved striking
^ Shot selection and technique
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Solid wrestling and takedown ability
+ Good positional grappler
^ Devastating ground striker
Point of interest: Muay Thai maelstrom
The main event for Bellator 238 features a fantastic featherweight title fight between two females who are familiar with the art of eight limbs.
Coming from professional muay Thai, a sport where she was the only person to defeat Gina Carano, Julia Budd has followed the path of prior female kickboxers like Marloes Coenen (whom Budd retired) and the previously mentioned Carano, successfully transitioning into MMA in her own unique way.
Under the care of her coach and counterpart Lance Gibson (Gibson MMA), we’ve seen Budd establish a well rounded mixed martial arts game that helps translate her striking in a safe and smart manner.
Seldom throwing herself out of position, Budd does a great job of staying on balance while throwing fundamentally-sound strikes to different targets. The Bellator featherweight champion does particularly well at sharpshooting leg and body attacks, but I’m curious as to how her sometimes lower-output style will stack up against a fellow striker who also offers layers to her game.
Enter Cris Cyborg.
Starting off her run as more of a brawling talent from Brazil, Cyborg has found a place to call home in Southern California, working with Jason Parillo to sharpen her striking. A coach who has helped refine fighters such as B.J. Penn and Michael Bisping, Parillo’s influence and subsequent work with Cyborg has shown to play a role in her evolution over recent chapters of her career.
Now, displaying a much more measured approach to pressure, the 34-year-old will steadily stalk forward while managing the distance to her preferred terms. Upgrading her overall stance, Cyborg seems to keep her balance much better, seldom getting herself out of position.
Prodding with a jab to enter space, Cyborg needs all but the slightest bite (or sign of blood in the water) to swarm her opposition with offensive waves of hooking punches and body kicks. However, given the opponent at hand, I suspect that Cyborg will be picking her shots a bit more cautiously given the level-changing threats that the sitting champion offers.
Next point of interest: Clinching crossroads
Point of interest: Clinching crossroads
Between the style of fight that Budd typically brings to the type of interference that Cyborg usually deals with, it’s hard to deny that the clinch will likely play an important stylistic role in this matchup.
Despite Budd having a background in striking, the Canadian standout quickly put together a serviceable takedown and top game once entering MMA – skills that she’s steadily sharpened over the years. Budd tends to score most of her strikes and takedowns along the fence, but keeps a nice level-changing double in her back pocket that she’s shown the ability to change off from.
Although I could see Budd being able to hold up in a war of body knees in the clinch, I suspect that her level-changing threats may be her best bet in regards to putting Cyborg in a disadvantageous position. That said, grounding the former UFC champ is no easy task.
In fact, I would argue that wrestling – due to the nature of Cyborg’s game and what it forces her opposition to do – has quietly become one of her stronger skill sets over the past decade, showing solid defensive and get-up fundamentals (especially from the fence). And when it comes to offense, the 15-year pro has plenty of firepower she can return with.
From unloading knees of her own in the Thai plum to hitting lateral drops off an over-under, Cyborg commands a diverse ability to manipulate bodies in close quarters. And when able to ground her opponents, the Brazilian’s assault only seems to intensify.
A no-nonsense grappler, Cyborg prioritizes position over submission.
Whether she is attacking or defending submissions, Cyborg does well at killing or creating scrambles on her terms. Typically wasting little time in settling in on top, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt will apply steady doses of forearm or shoulder pressure, securing her target for the strikes that are soon to follow.
When fighting from inside the guard, Cyborg displays intelligent hand-fighting and positional awareness in and out of her opponent’s grasp, making her hard to submit throughout her ground assaults. However, if Cyborg is the one who finds herself on bottom, then she, too, will have to deal with similar threats in regards to Budd’s positionally-based top game.
The Canadian fighter has quietly become a better guard passer over the years, as she’s not afraid to take and work from a mounted position should it become available. Either way, I expect that the clinch exchanges will determine the winner of grappling stanzas – and possibly the fight itself.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the promotional newcomer, listing Cyborg -410 and Budd +330 as of this writing.
Though this isn’t the widest spread we’ve seen for a Cyborg fight, I have to state that – despite my official pick – I strongly disagree with the direction of this betting line, as the proverbial “value” is on the current Bellator champ.
Budd is one of the most well-built and proven featherweights in the history of this division and offers a legitimate, well rounded skill set that could stymie her Brazilian foe (particularly inside of the clinch). In fact, I suspect that a surprising amount of this battle will end up taking place in close – subsequently slowing some fan-friendly action in the process.
For that reason, I’m siding with Cyborg to get this done on the scorecards in what I see being a competitive affair. Sure, the challenger could spark off a finish in classic Cyborg fashion; but if she doesn’t, then I think she’ll still be able to punctuate the exchanges with the sitting champion while defending Budd’s takedowns along the way.
Prediction: Cyborg by decision
