MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 236.
Bellator 236 takes place Saturday at Neal S. Blaisdell Center in Honolulu. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Ilima-Lei Macfarlane (10-0 MMA, 9-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66.5″
- Last fight: TKO win over Veta Arteaga (April 27, 2019)
- Camp: Team Hurricane Awesome (San Diego, Calif.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator women’s flyweight champion
+ 10th Planet jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ EBI women’s flyweight title
+ 2 knockout victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily developing striking game
^ Shows fight-to-fight improvements
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Knees, elbows, takedowns
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Good submission grappler
Kate Jackson (11-3-1 MMA, 3-1 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 33 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: TKO win over Lena Ovchynnikova (June 22, 2019)
- Camp: Koncept Gym (England)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Judo brown belt
+ Regional MMA title
+ 6 knockout victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Solid striking ability
^ Puts together combinations well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Trips, takedowns, knees
+ Good transitional grappler
^ From top or bottom
Point of interest: Striking in space
The main event for Bellator 236 features a flyweight title fight between two savvy grapplers who aren’t afraid to strike in space.
The challenger, Kate Jackson, was introduced to the art of karate at a young age, and she seems to be quite comfortable when playing at range.
Whether she is sitting back and looking to counter or coming forward with vigor, Jackson strings her shots together accordingly, often punctuating her presence with kicks off the lead side. The English fighter – despite previously competing at strawweight – seems to carry real power at what is her more natural weight class of 125 pounds.
Regardless of Jackson’s approach here, she can’t afford to get complacent if she means to take rounds from the sitting champion, Ilima-Lei Macfarlane.
Initially starting off her career a bit raw in the standing department, Macfarlane has made legitimate strides to her game throughout her title reign. The Hawaiian champ still shows patience to play on the outside or the ability to pressure her way forward, but she does so in a much more efficient manner than before.
Utilizing a steady dose of fakes and feints, Macfarlane now throws her punches straighter and with more purpose, smartly variating between simple combinations to maximize her effectiveness. That said, Macfarlane is not beyond mixing things up when feeling in stride, showing the occasional Superman punch or drop-step to keep her opposition honest and on their heels.
The 29-year-old talent has also has displayed upgraded head movement, rolling her head offline when committing to her crosses – something that will come in handy given the power Jackson will likely be throwing her way.
Though gameplans can always vary, I have to imagine that striking exchanges will only last so long before one of these fighters decides to push into grappling space.
Next point of interest: Jiu-jitsu driver’s seat
Point of interest: Jiu-jitsu driver’s seat
In a battle between two aggressive jiu-jitsu brown belts, I will be curious to see who gets to the driver’s seat first, as well as who can avoid having the steering wheel stolen from them.
Both women are solid clinch fighters who can strike and wrestle in close quarters.
Macfarlane, who is not opposed to opting for a Thai clinch, throws everything from knees to slicing elbows in close, but Jackson – despite seldom securing a traditional Thai plum – shows a knack for finding heavy knees in tight spaces.
Jackson’s judo sensibilities also shine through when working in this space, as she seems to prefer foraging for takedowns from tie-up positions, especially against the fence.
Thankfully for Macfarlane, the clinch seems to be a theme that, more often than not, tends to materialize in a positive way throughout most of her fights. Whether she is looking to establish connections in the open or utilizing her underrated wrestling along the cage, Macfarlane sticks to her opposition and the objective at hand.
The champion can also hit reactive shots in the open, which may give her an edge in the takedown department. But even if Macfarlane is the one who ends up on top, she cannot afford to sleep on the transitional skills of her English counterpart.
Jackson, who is not foreign to being on the bottom in her fights, shows a solid repertoire that helps keep her safe. The 33-year-old fighter demonstrates a decent butterfly guard to go along with her single-leg sweep savvy (using it in a similar fashion to Demian Maia).
Once topside, Jackson shows a ferocity to her flow that’s hard to match – and god forbid you allow her to get to mount. If Jackson doesn’t get distracted by a submission attempt along the way, then she’ll usually work toward a mounted position so that she can treat her opponent’s head like a pinata that can only be opened by elbows.
Macfarlane, as seen in her last outing, is more than familiar with that sort of trade, which makes me even more curious as to how their grappling styles will clash.
Hailing from the 10th Planet jiu-jitsu system, Macfarlane displays an unorthodox but effective way of maneuvering through positions, reminding us that the craft of a high-guard game is something to respect in MMA. Macfarlane also works very well from topside, showing mean transitional chops and the ability to sink her hips into a mount or back-mount position as soon as she sees daylight for it.
I’m expecting grappling stanzas to be a bit chaotic at first but suspect that one of the two fighters will eventually find themselves getting to better and better positions as this bout wears on.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be riding high on the sitting champion, listing Macfarlane -550 and Jackson +425 as of this writing.
Although this isn’t quite the case of “Ronda Rousey odds” that I’m typically skeptical of, I can’t help but raise an eyebrow when seeing odds north of 5-1 in this sort of scenario.
Jackson, though perhaps not fighting consistently enough to make a name for herself, is the more experienced party who has a legitimate, layered skillset that makes her much livelier than the betting odds above portend. That said, I’m not sure I can back her approach against the current champ.
Even though Jackson stormed the proverbial castles of her last couple of counterparts (as I suspect she knew she had the grappling edge in those contests), the English challenger has shown somewhat of a propensity to let the fight come to her on the feet – something that could quietly allow her to fall behind on the cards if she’s not careful. And when being aggressive on the offensive, Jackson’s pace looks to wane, even when being dominant.
For that reason, I’ll side with Macfarlane to retain her title in her second showcase at home. I see the champion surviving some early back-and-forth scares (both on the feet and floor) en route to a late submission win in round 4.
