MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 232.
Bellator 232 takes place Saturday at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Rory MacDonald (21-5-1 MMA, 3-1-1 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 30 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Decision win over Neiman Gracie (June 14, 2019)
- Camp: Tristar/Toshido MMA (Canadian)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Good footwork
^ Rarely out of position
+ Long and accurate jab
^ Manages distance well
+ Solid kicking acumen
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Diverse takedown ability
^ Well-timed level changes
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Works well from topside
+/- 0-1 in rematches
Douglas Lima (31-7 MMA, 13-3 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Michael Page (May 11, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team ATL (Atlanta)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former Bellator welterweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 15 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Seldom out of position
+ Dangerous hooks and crosses
+ Hard and accurate leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Improved underhook awareness
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Crafty guard game
^ Slick sweeps and submissions
+/- 2-0 in rematches
Point of interest: Straight lines and low kicks
The main event for Bellator 232 features the final fight of the welterweight grand prix, in which Rory MacDonald rematches Douglas Lima for all the marbles.
In their first fight, we saw both jabs and low kicks play roles in exchanges that, perhaps, could portend a path to success for both parties in part two of this top-level showdown.
Developing his overall MMA game from a young age, MacDonald showed early on that he was on a collision course with the sport’s finest. Uprooting the kickboxing skills he acquired at Toshido MMA in Vancouver, MacDonald later ended up expanding his training camp to the Tristar Gym in Montreal.
Once there, we would see the evolution of MacDonald’s jab.
Building all the fundamentals to facilitate his newfound tool, MacDonald immediately implemented it into his game. Staying long and measured, MacDonald was better able to set up his attacks, whether he was looking for high kicks or takedowns.
When facing skilled strikers like Tarec Saffiedine, MacDonald was able to utilize his jab to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm, tagging him whenever he would switch stances. Against power punchers like Tyron Woodley or Jake Ellenberger, MacDonald demonstrated to ability manage range to his terms, controlling the pace of the fight.
The potential problem, however, is that having a striking game that front-loads your weight to your lead foot and can make you even more susceptible to leg kicks – a lesson that MacDonald wore on the outside of his calf in their first fight.
MacDonald, despite carrying a decent five-inch edge in reach, also ate a quiet amount of Lima jabs early that I believe helped expedite the Canadian’s takedown urgency.
A former welterweight kingpin, Lima has steadily developed a heavy jab that he’s not afraid to step into. Steadily stalking his prey behind subtle feints and fakes, the Brazilian is seldom out of position while keeping his patented right hand at the ready. Although this weapon has served Lima well (as he is accurate both coming forward and off the counter), his reliance on his right has also cost him hand injuries.
Subsequently, we saw Lima improve his left hand in the latter part of his career, as he now throws the previously-mentioned jab to go along with his already potent left hook and leg kicks. Even when circling away, the champion will now smartly attach check-hooks to his lead-foot pivots, which comes in handy when his opposition chooses to get aggressive with him.
Outside of the clinch, I see the ability to establish the jab being key for both fighters – particularly Lima and his looming leg kicks.
Next point of interest: Controlling the clinch
Point of interest: Controlling the clinch
As we saw in their first fight, the clinch can be a crucial place for MacDonald to seek shelter from Lima’s strikes, as it also offers opportunities for him to stage offense of his own.
MacDonald has always had a solid level-changing takedown, but with Lima’s sprawling abilities, we saw the Canadian fighter have to lean on his chaining capabilities and clinch savvy. He was able to sneakily off-balance and lever Lima in tight spots, earning him points and control time in the process.
In Lima’s defense, he has been able to show some improvements since then, displaying an amped urgency and awareness of his hips en route to submitting Andre Koreshkov earlier in the grand prix. Even though MacDonald was able to win out wrestling exchanges and secure topside in their last outing, he will still need to respect the game of Lima this time around.
Lima has a crafty guard game and works particularly well off of an overhook (something he is usually looking for right when the action hits the floor). Utilizing an overhook for leverage and security, Lima’s leg dexterity will immediately come into play as he looks for slick sweeps or submissions.
That said, working from top position has long been a staple of MacDonald’s game. From fighting for inside hand position to maintaining his base and balance, MacDonald has shown the ability to deliver fight-changing ground strikes. And given that the 14-year pro has put extensive work into grappling during his recent layoffs, his skills in this area have only sharpened.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former champion, listing Lima -155 and MacDonald +135 as of this writing.
Between MacDonald being the sitting champion and winner of their first affair, it almost seems borderline disrespectful to list him as the underdog here. Sure, the Canadian fan-favorite has been through a ton of memorable battles that have had to have taken some tax on his durability, but his arguable-best skill set (which still seems to be intact) is also his most palpable pathway to victory on paper.
Should MacDonald rinse and repeat a similar strategy of takedowns and clinch control, then we (the general we, including myself) will probably feel stupid come Saturday night for favoring a fighter with a proven uphill path, stylistically speaking.
That said, their first fight was also incredibly competitive, which means adjustments will be extra critical this time around. Not only is Lima 2-0 in rematches (as opposed to MacDonald’s 0-1), but – more importantly – I believe that he is coming into this contest with a stronger uptrend in momentum and knows exactly what he needs to do to win.
Furthermore, I also suspect that the leg damage from their first fight still looms large in MacDonald’s mind. Not only is it normal for physical repercussions to linger after heavy doses of leg kicks (e.g. Randy Couture citing that the damage he incurred from his first fight with Pedro Rizzo permanently rearranging his leg), but the mental part of trauma is an often overlooked and underrated aspect – especially as it pertains to fighting.
Though Neiman Gracie, unfortunately for him, only went to the legs early (and not often) against MacDonald, you could still hear the Canadian champ acknowledging his concern to his corner in between rounds, citing his prior injury and worry that the damage could return (similar to the struggles he faced with Stephen Thompson in regards to checking his nose).
I don’t know if Lima will have the same success with calf kicks on Saturday, but I do think that this fight’s temperature has the propensity to change if the former champ is able to land just a few hard leg kicks or jabs to MacDonald’s nose. The pick is Lima to reclaim his title and win the million-dollar grand prize in the third round via a stoppage to strikes.
