MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for Bellator 228.
Bellator 228 takes place Saturday at The Forum in Inglewood, Calif., near Los Angeles. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Gegard Mousasi (45-7-2 MMA, 3-1 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 34 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Rafael Lovato Jr. (June 22, 2019)
- Camp: Team Jurojin (The Netherlands)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former Bellator middleweight champion
+ Strikeforce and DREAM titles
+ Amateur boxing champion
+ Judo black belt
+ 27 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 31 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Excellent jab
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Excellent top pressure and transitions
^ Good strike and submission acumen
+ Crafty guard retentions and sweeps
+/- 4-1 against southpaws (last 10 yrs.)
Lyoto Machida (26-8 MMA, 2-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 41 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: TKO win over Chael Sonnen (June 14, 2019)
- Camp: Blackhouse MMA (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC light-heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Shotokan karate black belt
+ 11 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Crafty feints and footwork
^ Deceptive distance closer
+ Accurate left cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dangerous kicks and knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Traditionally counter wrestles well
^ Solid base and balance
Point of interest: Revisiting the striking scene
The co-main event for Bellator 228 features a rematch that carries title implications for the middleweight division.
In their first meeting, Lyoto Machida was able to outpoint and frustrate Gegard Mousasi for five rounds by using his patent counters and lateral movement. By the mid-to-late rounds, Mousasi figured out that he had to bite down and pressure Machida if he was going to find any success, but by then the former UFC champ had already established his rhythm (as well as a lead on the scorecards) and was able to ride his way to a victory.
Since then, each fighter has had differing ebbs and flows in regards to career resurgences. But with Mousasi coming into this fight as the losing party (in more ways than one), I will be curious to see what his adjustments are, particularly within the striking realm.
Hailing from the striking-rich country of the Netherlands, Mousasi has legitimate experience in both kickboxing and boxing. Displaying more finesse than flash, the 34-year-old has primarily scored his stoppages through accurate placements and technical superiority. And don’t let his unenthusiastic demeanor fool you: The Dutchman is secretly searching for defensive openings to exploit as he reads his opposition carefully.
If Mousasi can find a home for his jab early, then he typically does well dictating striking distances and mitigating takedown attempts. The problem, however, is that jabbing with a southpaw can be a difficult proposition, especially when facing one who is as elusive a counter fighter as Machida is.
Typically circling along the outside of range, Machida will lure his opposition into his space, keeping left-cross counters on a hair-trigger for anyone who commits to entering. Once finding offensive angles to his liking, the Brazilian is not beyond blitzing in left-to-right punch continuums.
When feeling in stride, the 41-year-old will unleash his patented left body and head kicks, a weapon that has seemingly gotten stronger since his time spent with Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA. In said time, Machida has opted to throw more leg kicks in his repertoire, a trend I will be curious to see if he carries over to this fight considering the potential level-changing threats coming his way.
Next point of interest: Grappling possibilities
Point of interest: Grappling possibilities
Given the ground fighting trends of each fighter in recent history, I will curious to see if Mousasi looks to return to the tactics that he has implemented against southpaws in the past.
Coming from a judo background, Mousasi has shown to be no stranger to embracing clinch fighting or wrestling when the situation calls for it.
Even early in his career, Mousasi displayed an underrated ability to hit level-changing takedowns against larger men. Should Mousasi take this fight to the floor, his pressure-passing and slick submission acumen may prove to be problematic against an older iteration of Machida – one who hasn’t been fairing as well when forced to work from bottom.
That said, Machida has historically been hard to take down outside of well-timed shots or an outright out-muscling. And when fighters attempt to clinch Machida, he usually does well at re-swimming for underhooks or even limp-arming his way to safety when he needs to.
Still, despite his increased technical index of defense, Machida has seemingly had more of a difficult time avoiding clinch scenarios in recent years, which could be something to watch for in this matchup.
Machida did great on the mat the last time these two tangled, displaying some of his best grappling to date. But even in that performance, Mousasi had moments where was able to show his savvy from bottom.
Should Machida attempt to score points with takedowns here, he will need to be extra mindful of Mousasi’s tricks. The Dutch fighter is particularly crafty from his back with butterfly hooks, and he only looks for guard retentions with the intentions of sweeping or scrambling to topside.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are currently betting that history will fail to repeat itself, listing Mousasi -300 and Machida +240 as of this writing.
Despite my official pick, I find the betting spread above to be borderline problematic. Not only do I hate seeing a fighter who lost the first fight being favored to win the second (out of principle), but I also think that this matchup is much closer than meets the eye.
Mousasi, as we saw in his Bellator debut, is not beyond having a bad performance from time to time. And though I believe he lost a competitive fight to an underrated fighter in Rafael Lovato Jr., it’s easy to start looking at the miles Mousasi has accrued and begin to wonder exactly where the former champ is at.
Machida, at least in his last outing, looked to be rejuvenated in almost-vintage form (appearing to have taken a few hits off of the fountain of youth), which makes things even more interesting. If Machida has, in fact, found his swagger again, then he could turn in a similar performance as before – picking and pointing his way to another win.
Although that type of scene wouldn’t necessarily surprise me, I suspect that Mousasi’s mileage and motivation are just fine heading into this contest. Machida has been a name that has commonly come off of Mousasi’s tongue, with their first fight clearly leaving a bad taste in his mouth.
Now, more than five years later, I see Mousasi as the man who has gotten a better hold of his swagger, something I suspect he shows come Saturday. And with only three rounds to work within, I believe Mousasi’s promises of more pressure this time around. The pick is Mousasi to implement heavy doses of clinch fighting and takedowns en route to a decision win, but I caution anyone betting on this outcome for the price listed above.
