MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for Bellator 222.
Bellator 222 takes place Friday at Madison Square Garden in New York. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Lyoto Machida (25-8 MMA, 1-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 41 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision win over Rafael Carvalho (Dec. 15, 2018)
- Camp: Blackhouse MMA (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC light-heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Shotokan karate black belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Crafty feints and footwork
^ Deceptive distance closer
+ Accurate left cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dangerous left kick
+ Traditionally counter wrestles well
^ Solid base and balance
+/- 4-3 against career southpaws
Chael Sonnen (30-16-1 MMA, 2-2 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 42 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: TKO loss to Fedor Emelianenko (Oct. 13, 2018)
- Camp: ATT Portland (Portland, Ore.)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Underrated striking ability
^ Solid boxing technique
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ Favors power-doubles
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Passes, rides and floats well
+/- 1-3 against southpaws (last 10 yrs.)
Point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw
The co-main event for Bellator 222 features an intriguing matchup of veteran-savvy southpaws.
As I often preach in my breakdowns, a matchup of lefties can often be tricky, especially considering most southpaws predicate their games on facing an opponent of the opposite stance. For this reason, the more “skilled” striker does not always demonstrate his perceived on-paper advantages.
With that in mind, I will be curious to see Lyoto Machida’s approach in what will be his seventh straight southpaw opponent.
Typically circling along the outside of range, Machida will lure his opposition into his space, keeping left-cross counters on a hair-trigger for anyone who commits to entering. Once finding offensive angles to his liking, the Brazilian blitzes in left-to-right punch continuums.
When feeling in stride, the 41-year-old will unleash his patented left body and head kicks, a weapon that has seemingly gotten stronger since his time spent with Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA. In said time, Machida has opted to throw more leg kicks in his repertoire, a trend I will be curious to see if he carries over to this fight considering the potential level-changing threats coming his way.
A self-proclaimed “gangster” from West Linn, Ore., Chael Sonnen is a southpaw who has little issues with confidence when it comes to trading in a fist fight.
Demonstrating solid boxing fundamentals (something he’s had experience in from a young age), Sonnen utilizes strong fakes while working behind a pumping jab. And with his patented left cross not far behind, the 22-year pro will quickly close the distance as he looks to change his level.
This high-percentage approach has served Sonnen well over the years, and it’s even earned him some memorable moments against skilled strikers like Anderson Silva. That said, despite showing arguable improvements to his striking in recent outings, Sonnen will still have to mind being timed by one of the best in the game when it comes to countering –– a trade-off that should keep exchanges exciting while they last.
Next point of interest: Avoiding the wrestler’s wrath
Point of interest: Avoiding the wrestler’s wrath
With all signs pointing to Sonnen likely having to rely on wrestling in this matchup, the question for me is: Can Sonnen close the distance and establish himself safely?
Sonnen’s reactive blast-double still appears to be intact, which should be more than enough to ground his Brazilian foe if timed correctly. The former All-American is also no slouch in the clinch, often hitting slick inside trips or chaining attacks off of savvy snap-downs.
Historically, Machida has been hard to take down outside of said well-timed shots or an outright out-muscling. And when fighters attempt to clinch Machida, he usually does well at re-swimming for underhooks or even limp-arming his way to safety when he needs to.
That said, despite his increased technical index of defense, Machida has seemingly had more of a difficult time avoiding clinch scenarios in recent years, which could spell trouble should he inadvertently offer some rope to Sonnen in the form of a scramble or takedown succession.
Sure, Machida may have a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to his name, but being on the bottom has certainly not been a strong suit for the former UFC champ. Moreover, Machida could put himself in even worse spots if he’s not careful in getting back to his feet.
Sonnen, who wields an underrated submission game, has no issue in turning an underhook getup into a guillotine choke (just ask Mauricio “Shogun” Rua). And if Machida decides to turtle up to stand, he could briefly expose his neck to a front headlock, a position Sonnen works particularly well from whether he’s searching for chokes or floating toward the back.
Nevertheless, even if Sonnen can get to his favored positions, he will need to exercise better (and perhaps more conservative) judgment than he did in his last time out, where he gave away a crucial spot to Fedor Emelianenko that cost him the fight.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public still seem high on the former UFC titleholder, listing Machida -355 and Sonnen +265 as of this writing.
As someone who came into this fight favoring Machida by a decent stretch, I suppose such a spread in the betting lines above shouldn’t bother me. However, regardless of my official pick, I can’t help but caution anyone feeling confident on either side of this matchup.
Both men have been in the advanced stages of their career for a minute now, but I suspect their styles aren’t aging on equal grounds.
Meaning: Machida, despite being technically younger with a higher athletic ceiling, has long-utilized a style that is dependent on speed, timing, and mobility –– all things that tend to go first in an aging fighter’s attributes (and likely the reason why we’re seeing Machida succeed positions more in the cage). Whereas Sonnen, for all his inconsistencies, has consistently come forward with a grappling-heavy style that tends to age more gracefully in our sport (e.g. the Chuck Liddell-Tito Ortiz trilogy).
It’s not a pick I feel good about, but given my argument above, I seem to have talked myself into siding with yet another underdog on this card. And when you consider the fact that Sonnen hasn’t lost a fight on the scorecards in 15 years, then one can only assume that Machida will have to get the finish to win here, something that – despite my admitted fandom for the man – is not something I can be confident in given what I saw in person last December.
Prediction: Sonnen by decision
For more on Bellator 222, check out the MMA Rumors section of the site.
