MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the welterweight grand prix installment for Bellator 221.
Bellator 221 takes place Saturday at Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Ill., near Chicago. The main card streams on DAZN following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Douglas Lima (30-7 MMA, 12-3 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: Submission win over Andrey Koreshkov (Sept. 29, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team ATL (Atlanta)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former Bellator welterweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 14 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Seldom out of position
+ Dangerous hooks and crosses
+ Hard and accurate leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Improved underhook awareness
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Crafty guard game
^ Slick sweeps and submissions
Michael Page (14-0 MMA, 10-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Decision win over Paul Daley(Feb. 16, 2019)
- Camp: London Shootfighters (England)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple kickboxing accolades and titles
+ Pro boxing experience
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Creative feints and footwork
^ Shoulder fakes, lateral movement, etc.
+ Accurate right hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dynamic kicking variety
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid defensive fundamentals and separations
+ Shows serviceable ground skills
^ Incorporates leg dexterity well
Point of interest: Snake-charming the stone
Bellator 221 features another fun installment of the promotion’s welterweight grand prix, as we will be privy to a tactical battle between a snake-charming striker and a seemingly immovable stone who has sat atop the division for some time.
Enter the snake charmer, Michael Page.
Born into a family of martial artists, Page was indoctrinated into combat straight away. Initially getting into more traditional martial arts like kung fu, the Englishman eventually moved on to other competitive avenues such as sport karate and freestyle kickboxing, where he earned several accolades and tournament titles.
Marrying his reactive footwork with deceptive feints that help disguise his assaults, Page has been able to successfully bring his point-fighting sensibilities into MMA, cleverly disrupting the rhythm that most fighters are used to seeing.
Although it can appear to be blatant demonstrations of showmanship upon initial impression, there is – believe it or not – a quiet brilliance behind the method to Page’s madness.
A self-proclaimed snake charmer, Page will distract his opponents by making them look at the proverbial birdy before delivering pinpoint punches down the pipe. Moreover, when Page appears to be borderline mocking his counterparts with shoulder-shucking dance moves, he is actually throwing away any potential reads his opponent may be making on him, which simultaneously helps hide his approach.
For example, many strikers will tell you that they tend to keep a general focus between their opposition’s shoulders, as this will typically give them an indication of the whens and wheres of their counterpart’s offense. So, with that in mind, it’s not hard to see why Page can be so difficult for fighters to get a beat on during his dance-likes displays.
However, as skillful as Page proves to be, he will still need to draw out the disciplined, stone-like approach of Douglas Lima.
A former welterweight kingpin, Lima has typically set and maintained a consistent pace throughout his career. Steadily stalking his prey behind subtle feints and fakes, the Brazilian is seldom out of position while keeping his patented right hand at the ready. Although this weapon has served Lima well (he is accurate both coming forward and off the counter), his reliance on it has also cost him hand injuries.
Subsequently, we saw Lima improve his left hand in the latter part of his career, as he now throws an improved jab to go along with his already potent left hook and leg kicks. Even when circling away, the champion will now smartly attach check-hooks to his lead-foot pivots, which could come in handy when considering the leaping, low-handed movements of his counterpart.
That said, even though Lima successfully countering Page is not out of the question, it’s hard to see the former champ count on out-countering the counter-fighting specialist, so I suspect we could see a slow burn in regards to the build of striking exchanges.
Next point of interest: Potential ground warfare
Point of interest: Potential ground warfare
Between the on-paper discrepancies in the grappling department to what we saw in Page’s last bout, I can’t help but believe that the threat of ground warfare could rear its head in this matchup.
Lima is a legitimate Brazilian jiiu-jitsu black belt, but his offensive wrestling, though improved, has not traditionally been a go-to weapon for him. That said, offensive wrestling wasn’t really a major tool for Paul Daley either, and we saw him find success on multiple occasions from a few different scenarios.
Lima was not only cageside for that contest, but was also one of the few who actually called for Daley to go to the takedown, which makes me wonder if that perhaps tips off where his head is at coming into Saturday night. Still, Lima cannot afford to sleep on his counterparts abilities in the clinch or even on the floor.
Though known for his unique striking, Page comes from a well-schooled gym when it comes to submission wrestling in London Shootfighters. Incorporating the leg dexterity that fuels his kicking variety on the feet, Page can hit slick trips from the clinch, as well as offer fast submission threats from his back.
The Englishman is also not shy when it comes to attacking the legs of his opposition, something that – at the very least – could create scrambling opportunities for Page to get back to his feet. But considering the back-taking acumen of Lima (something that was on display in his last fight), Page will have to be urgent with proper technique if he means to stay safe in grappling scenarios with the former champ.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former champion, listing Lima -270 and Page +230 as of this writing.
Although I don’t disagree at all with the projected favorite, I will stress caution to anyone counting out Page in this spot. It’s probably a lot easier to criticize Page and his rise after his last outing, but I would argue that the sample size is a tricky one to draw too hard from.
Not only can legitimate bad blood produce surprisingly lackluster fights at times, but between the strategy of Daley and the demons that may or may not have been affecting Page with the recent passing of his father, I still believe it’s difficult to know exactly what we’ll see in striking exchanges when it comes to this matchup.
Say what you will about traditional martial arts or point fighting, but Page’s style – as creative and incomparable as it may seem – highlights one of the most commonly overlooked positives provided by such experience: the understanding of striking range and how to comfortably navigate said space (especially if you grew up in this environment as Page did).
Whether he is leaping laterally out of defensive instinct or launching inward offensively, Page seems quite confident in his reads and routes. But even if Page does find success early on the durable Lima, I can’t help but imagine that will only force clinching and grappling situations sooner – a realm where I see the former champ storming through.
Ultimately, unless Lima does find a way to exercise his ground edge, then I believe this fight will look similar to Shogun Rua’s battles with Lyoto Machida, as I see Lima steadily mixing between marching leg kicks and pinpoint counters to secure scorecards down the stretch of a fight that I see starting slow.
Prediction: Lima by decision
For more on Bellator 221, check out the MMA Rumors section of the site.
