LONDON -- The U.S. allies are increasingly bewildered by the unconventional diplomatic style of U.S. President Donald Trump. In June and July, Trump sharpened his remarks and behavior that virtually challenge the long-standing international order established in the post-World War II era. His extraordinary moves prompt the European and Asian allies to reassess what alliances are all about.
Focus on Russia, China, N. Korea
Trump's remarks at a joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16 sparked criticism in the United States and around the world when he endorsed Putin, who rightfully should be considered a U.S. adversary, over the analysis of the U.S. intelligence agencies.
While U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded the Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election was a fact, Putin has flatly denied it. When a U.S. reporter pressed Trump by asking, "Who do you believe?" the U.S. president answered, "I don't see any reason why it would be [Russia]" that interfered in the election.
Drawing the line between "friend" and "foe" is the basic principle of national security. Traditionally, the Republican Party, which is home to many foreign policy hard-liners, has cherished security-related organizations such as the armed forces and intelligence agencies, among others. His remarks and conduct, which turned this position completely on its head, invited bitter criticism from within the party and even his close aides. As a result, Trump was forced to effectively backtrack on his statement the following day.
Trump places greater importance on relations with Russia, North Korea and China than on ties with nations allied with the United States, creating mounting unease over his approach in distinguishing between friends and foes.
Targeting Merkel
Trump has further jolted U.S. allies by removing the lines between security ties and economic ties and unilaterally making demands that link both elements.
Prior to the U.S.-Russia summit, Trump attended the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's summit in Brussels where German Chancellor Angela Merkel received some stinging criticism.
According to attendees, during the July 11 emergency meeting on spending more on defense and burden sharing, Trump singled out each nation that was not spending enough on its defense and criticized the country's leader.
The previous day, in the public breakfast while Merkel was absent, Trump lashed out at Germany for becoming a "captive of Russia" because of its plan to buy natural gas from Moscow through the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. At the emergency meeting, he reportedly told Merkel to her face that the natural gas issue was the biggest problem.
Jonathan Eyal, international director at the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, expressed his concern about what Trump's comments could mean for U.S. allies.
"Even when the tension between Japan and the U.S. in 1970s and the 80s over the huge Japanese trade surplus with the U.S. was very high, there was always an attempt and a determination in both Washington and Tokyo to keep the trade issues separate from the security issues. This was sacred to every American president since 1945, and this enabled the Japan-U.S. alliance to serve as a strong deterrent during the Cold War," Eyal said.
"Trump not merely combines the two, but he actually sees the two as completely inseparable, which could destabilize the U.S. alliances."
Foundation laid in '41
The very essence of an alliance is that if one of the alliance member states comes under armed attack, the other members will jointly come to that nation's defense by exercising the right of collective self-defense. By displaying willingness in solidarity to exercise the right, combined with military preparations for such situations, an alliance can work as an effective deterrent.
The United States has stood with Europe in NATO and forged bilateral security treaties with its Asian allies Japan and South Korea respectively. During the Cold War, these alliances were the basis of defense for the Western bloc.
The foundation for this post-World War II international order was laid by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt in August 1941, when the war was still raging. After holding talks, the two leaders announced the Atlantic Charter (see below).
In addition to inspiring the basic principles for establishing the United Nations, the charter declared important principles including no territorial aggrandizement; traversing the high seas without hindrance; fullest collaboration between all nations in the economic field; economic advancement. It covered all the issues central to the international order that has continued to this day.
"Trump sees the Western framework built up over history as the 'establishment,'" said a source connected to NATO. "NATO and the Group of Seven for the most industrialized economies, like the United Nations, are multilateral organizations that he hates. Perhaps Trump subconsciously has an allergy to such entities."
A British Foreign Ministry source cynically said, "Deepening ties with Putin, who annexed Crimea, also violates the Atlantic Charter that champions the principle of opposing territorial aggrandizement. Perhaps the charter needs to be revised."
Will Japan be targeted over trade?
As Trump remains indifferent to Europe's calls to strengthen vigilance against Russia while he weaves security and economics together, his biggest external threat is probably China.
China's nominal gross domestic product in 2017 was 12 trillion dollars, second only to the United States (19.4 trillion dollars). Japan was a distant third at 4.9 trillion dollars. Russia's lackluster economy generated the 12th-highest GDP of 1.5 trillion dollars, behind even South Korea.
Trump has been irritated by the huge U.S. trade deficit with rival China. He is applying pressure by slapping high tariffs on products from China, setting the stage for trade friction that will bog down both sides.
Japan is watching Trump's obsession with economic gains with growing unease.
"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has personally formed a good relationship with Trump, which has helped ties, but there is a concern that at some point, Japan might come under pressure to restrain its auto exports or boost its defense spending, just like Europe has," an aide to the prime minister said. "It's unclear what impact this will have on the Japan-U.S. alliance."
Trump's unpredictability is another source of anxiety.
"Trump is currently very interested in North Korean issues, but if their bilateral negotiations stall, there are fears he might simply walk away from them," a Japanese Foreign Ministry source said. "After the U.S.-North Korea summit in June, China and Russia have started easing economic sanctions imposed on North Korea. If this process drags on, the prospects for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will be gloomy."
Even in South Korea, which largely supported the results of the U.S.-North Korea summit, the sudden decision to cancel joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises created a stir.
Trump will remain in power for at least the next two years or so, Japan will need to work with South Korea on many fronts to support efforts that ensure Trump does not lose his appetite for involvement in Korean Peninsula issues.
Under the Trumpian diplomatic approach, Japan needs to further strengthen cooperation with European nations and South Korea. Otherwise, the only ones left grinning will be Russia, China and North Korea.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 19, 2018)
-- Atlantic Charter
A joint declaration announced by the leaders of Britain and the United States after talks in August 1941 during World War II. The charter summarized the doctrine for conducting war against the Axis powers of Japan, Germany and Italy, and the principles for the postwar international order. This marked the starting point at which the United States, which had adhered to an isolationist policy, returned to internationalism. The charter is said to be the foundation for what has become the "special relationship" between Britain and the United States.
Read more from The Japan News at https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/
