Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football series where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.
As the 2021 college football season winds down, we’re headed into rivalry weekend with the Iron Bowl (Alabama vs. Auburn), the Egg Bowl (Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State), the Apple Cup (Washington vs. Washington State) and Bedlam (Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State).
But despite all these and so many more Week 13 games that could be a ton of fun and create potential chaos for the College Football Playoff picture, we’re breaking down one game this week: Ohio State vs. Michigan.
The winner will sit at the top of the Big Ten East standings, play in the Big Ten championship game in two weekends and have a strong shot at the College Football Playoff, regardless of who the Big Ten West champ is.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Buckeyes are favored to top the Wolverines, and Ohio State has a 62.4 percent chance to win the division, a 51.7 percent chance to win the conference and a 55.0 percent chance to make the playoff. Michigan enters Saturday’s game with a 37.6 percent chance to claim the division, a 25.8 percent chance to win the conference but a 29.0 percent chance to make the playoff, and those numbers will surely jump if it takes down Ohio State.
For Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh — who’s famously 0-5 against the Buckeyes during his tenure at the helm — Saturday’s matchup feels like his best chance to finally get that W against Ohio State, which leads the series, 52-47-4 overall, and when both teams are ranked in the top 10, 12-9-2. And the last time the Buckeyes lost this matchup was back in 2011.
However, Michigan is looking good after a dominant 59-18 win over Maryland in Week 12 and didn’t seem content with whatever lead it had over the Terrapins throughout the game. Going into Week 13, the Wolverines’ defense is seventh among FBS teams in points allowed per game (16.3), eighth in passing yards per game (178.4) and 10th in total yards per game (306.8).
And they’ll need to play a near-perfect game to slow down the Buckeyes’ surging offense, led by now-Heisman Trophy favorite C.J. Stroud, according to Tipico Sportsbook.
Ohio State is also riding some huge momentum after Week 12, when it crushed Michigan State — the only team the Wolverines have lost to this season. And after some early struggles, including a loss to Oregon, for the Buckeyes and Stroud, Ohio State seems to have found its rhythm. Their offense is statistically the best among FBS teams, sitting in first in yards per game (559.5), first in points scored per game (47.2) and sixth in passing yards per game (362.3).
And per Tipico Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite to beat the Wolverines in a matchup basically serving as a College Football Playoff play-in game that could also boost Stroud’s Heisman chances.
