While September remains the most seasonally treacherous month for U.S. stocks, a select group of S&P 500 companies has bucked the bearish trend, delivering consistent gains even when broader markets slip into their usual autumn slump.
Not All Stocks Fall In September
September has historically been a stormy stretch for investors, with the S&P 500 averaging a 0.98% decline over the last 20 years.
According to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, it’s important to differentiate between long-term climate and short-term weather when analyzing seasonal trends.
"When the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average going into September, the average price return for the month jumps to 1.3%, with 60% of occurrences producing positive results," he said.
This year, the S&P 500 is entering the month near record highs and above its long-term trendline—a setup that has historically turned the tables on September's gloomy narrative.
“History has shown that when the broader market is trending higher into the month, seasonal weakness has not necessarily been a factor,” he added.
10 S&P 500 Stocks That Defy September Seasonality
Not every stock succumbs to the seasonal slump. Here are 10 stocks with a track record of positive September returns over the past two decades.
- Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE): Nike is the standout performer, boasting an average September return of 3.77% and a 65% win rate. It's the stock's second-best month of the year, trailing only November. Nike's seasonal strength may be tied to back-to-school shopping cycles and early holiday season inventory restocking.
- United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL): The airline sees average gains of 3.55% in September, with a 58% win rate. Despite the cyclical nature of travel, UAL has outperformed during the month more often than not.
- Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL): Delta adds to the airline’s strength in September, with a 3.37% average return and a 56% positivity rate. Alongside UAL, it reflects a surprising seasonal trend in the airline sector.
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL): Cruise line Royal Caribbean boasts a 2.64% average September return with a strong 70% win rate. That consistency places it among the most reliable September outperformers in the S&P 500.
- Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV): Another airline, Southwest averages a 2.19% gain in September and finishes higher 60% of the time. It reinforces the theme: airline stocks, usually seen as cyclical, tend to resist September weakness.
- CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CME): The operator of major financial exchanges posted a 2.12% average September return, finishing in the green 55% of the time. Trading volumes often spike in volatile periods, supporting CME's September performance.
- MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM): MGM sees average returns of 2.02% with a flat 50% win rate.
- Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU): The memory chipmaker averages gains of 1.96% in September, with a 50% win rate. This contrasts with broader semiconductor volatility, as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SOXX) fell by nearly 1% in September.
- Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD): Gilead averages a 1.81% September return with a 50% win rate.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY): Bristol-Myers delivers an average return of 1.52% with a 60% win rate in September. Its defensive pharma profile likely helps in risk-off periods, serving as hedge amid broader market weakness.
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