The Chicago Bears (3-4) are on the road again, heading west to Texas after spending last week in Massachusetts. The Bears will take on the Cowboys (5-2) and are a 9.5-point underdog.
Dallas has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL led by All-Pro Micah Parsons and a strong supporting cast. Parsons and company lead the NFL in sacks and pressure rate which will pose a challenge for the Bears’ offensive line.
The Bears do have momentum coming off a 33-14 blowout win over New England. Chicago’s offense and defense both looked great – scoring the most points of the season and forcing four turnovers.
It will be a tough week for the Bears on the road, but the Cowboys are without leading rusher Ezekiel Elliott and quarterback Dak Prescott is only playing in his third game of the season.
Here are five things to watch in their Week 8 matchup — and a final prediction.
1
Can Chicago keep its momentum on offense?
The Bears are coming off their highest-scoring game with Justin Fields as a starter. The Bears’ offense converted 61% of third downs against the Patriots– their best of the season.
The designed runs paid off and helped Fields throw the ball. Against New England, Fields had 10 designed quarterback runs and finished with 82 yards rushing. By leveraging his dual-threat ability, Fields threw the ball at his best. Against New England, 40% of his passes resulted in a first down – his best of the season.
Borrowing from the Ravens was the key to beating the Patriots. Adding another wrinkle to the offense and borrowing from the Eagles could be the next step.
2
Can the Bears replicate the Eagles' game plan to beat Dallas?
The Eagles’ second drive in the first quarter against Dallas was a 15-play, 80-yard scoring drive that took 7:36 off the clock. Philadelphia ran the ball six times and took advantage of short passes and yards after the catch. Their third drive was a 7-play, 44-yard scoring drive that took 4:07 off the clock.
By the time the first half ended, the Eagles had scored 20 points and held the ball for more than 19-of-30 minutes, keeping the ball away from Dallas.
The other thing Philadelphia did was take advantage of the run-pass-option (RPO). The Eagles often run the RPO with Jalen Hurts – nearly 20% of Hurts’ passing yards have come from RPOs this season.
The RPO slows the defensive pass rush of Dallas because they have to confirm whether or not the offense is running before continuing forward with a pass rush. This strategy was effective against Dallas as Micah Parsons had zero sacks in that game and only one tackle for loss despite rotating as an edge rusher and linebacker.
3
Bears OL vs. Dallas' pass rush
The Cowboys are on pace to set a franchise record for sacks. Through the first seven games of the season, they’ve accumulated 29 sacks, and this has to be a cause for concern for the Bears, who lead the NFL in sacks allowed.
To make matters worse, heading into Texas, the Bears will be without center Lucas Patrick (toe) and right tackle Larry Borom (concussion). Polarizing veteran Sam Mustipher will get the start at center, and long-time veteran Reilly Reiff will start at right tackle.
Chicago will have to find a way to keep the Dallas pass rushers away from Justin Fields, or it will be a long day for the Bears’ offense.
4
Can the Bears defense delay Dak Prescott's return to form?
Dak Prescott is only starting his third game on Sunday following a thumb injury in week one. While he looked good at times against Detroit, he struggled in week one against Tampa Bay.
The Bears are coming off a three-interception game against Mac Jones, a quarterback like Prescott who was returning from injury and trying to knock the rust off. However, given the defense’s momentum and Matt Eberflus’ familiarity with Dallas, the Bears will have a chance to take the ball away from Prescott.
5
Will the Bears take advantage of Ezekiel Elliott's absence?
Dallas will be without star running back Ezekiel Elliott due to a knee injury. Elliott’s 63.3 yards per game and four touchdowns represent 52% of the team’s yards and 66% of their touchdowns. While some have been calling for Pollard to overtake Elliott as the starter, he’s never had a similar workload.
As the starter, Elliott has carried the ball 15+ times this season in five-of-seven games. Tony Pollard has never had 15 carries in a game in his career. The last time he rushed the ball more than 14 times was in 2018 in college against Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl.
The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, but playing Pollard should give them a chance to force Dak Prescott to shoulder the bulk of the offensive work. But, of course, with Prescott coming off a thumb injury and playing his third game of the year – that’s not what he wants to do.
6
Final Prediction: Bears 19, Cowboys 17
The loss of Ezekiel Elliott will give the Bears a chance to take advantage of the smaller, speedier Tony Pollard. However, if the backup running back impacts the game, it will likely be as a receiver or on special teams, not running the ball.
Not having Elliott will also put more pressure on Dak Prescott, who struggled to find consistency as a passer and returned early from a thumb injury. However, the young Bears’ defensive backs are finding their footing and should carry that momentum forward.
If the Bears continue to add wrinkles to their offense and take advantage of Justin Fields’ dual-threat ability, they can win this game. It will be close, but Chicago leaves Arlington, Texas, with a two-game win streak.
