The Bears’ offensive struggles have been maddening, sleep-inducing and dreary.
But they aren’t new.
As the team sits in the bottom seven of the NFL in scoring, yards, passer rating, rushing and third-down conversions, these are all problems that have lingered throughout Matt Nagy’s three seasons as coach.
Anyone who has followed the Bears for an extended period is used to a plodding offense, but it’s especially unacceptable under Nagy, who was hired specifically to correct that. He got the job on the basis of his experience under offensive guru Andy Reid, his work with successful quarterbacks and his character. While he has shown exemplary leadership, he hasn’t delivered on the first two.
Over nearly three full seasons, the Bears have ranked 22nd in points, 30th in yards per play, 22nd in passer rating, 28th in yards per carry and 26th in third-down conversions. They are the only team in the bottom 13 in scoring to have a winning record (25-19), and that’s because they’ve benefitted from an overwhelming defense.
Nagy’s .568 winning percentage, which ranks fourth in franchise history among coaches with at least 40 games, is his best argument for keeping his job.
But he has gone 13-15 the last two seasons after a rousing debut of 12-4. And it’s debatable how much credit he should get for all the winning considering he has an NFL-high seven victories when his team scored fewer than 20 points.
If Nagy wants to point to his record, as he did when the team managed a 5-1 start this season despite sputtering offensively, it’s fair to dissect his 2018 success. It came against a last-place schedule because of the team’s 2017 finish, the Bears’ scoring average was boosted from 22.4 to 26.3 points because of defensive touchdowns and takeaways that set up a short field and it ended with a thud as Nagy’s offense managed just 15 points while he blamed the double doink.
In the immediacy, the Bears’ push for a playoff spot — which continues with a crucial home game against the Texans on Sunday — is a worthwhile goal as they try to make something of a sinking season. But long-term decisions, such as whether a coach or general manager keeps his job, should be predicated on where the team is headed.
This one has only declined under Nagy. It’s clear what this Bears team is, regardless of whether they plunge to 5-11 or rally to 9-7 and sneak into the playoffs, and it’s clear that they need an overhaul rather than a few tweaks and quick fixes. This isn’t headed in a good direction.
This isn’t exclusively Nagy’s fault, by the way. It’s a calamitous collaboration between him and general manager Ryan Pace.
Nagy was part of a Chiefs staff that fell in love with Patrick Mahomes before the 2017 draft, but here he is coaching Mitch Trubisky instead. In fairness, Nagy knew that when he took the job. He and Pace worked together to trade for Nick Foles, who has been nowhere near what they expected and now is on their books at $8 million each of the next two seasons.
Pace is also the one who stuck Nagy with arguably his biggest impediment: a consistently inadequate offensive line.
Over the entirety of Pace’s tenure, which began in 2015, the Bears have scored the fourth-fewest points and averaged the fourth-fewest yards per play. They’ve never had a quarterback, and whoever replaces him will inherit an extremely tight salary-cap situation and a limited stock of 2021 draft picks.
And now, the one thing Pace has always been good at assembling, is falling apart. The Bears’ defense is in decline, and if that side of the ball can’t save them, they’re done.
The bottom line for Nagy is that the organization hired him to build a great offense, and it hasn’t been done — nor is it legitimately under construction.
