It appears that after two consecutive plodding, fruitless seasons, the Bears think everything’s fine.
In the two days since being bounced out of the playoffs in what looked like merely a formality for the Saints, the organization has been idle other than holding wrap-up meetings.
General manager Ryan Pace? Still there, as of now.
Head coach Matt Nagy? Same.
The Bears haven’t officially said they’re both returning or signaled it by announcing a year-end press conference, but the longer everything stays quiet, the more likely they’re safe. No news is not good news for those hoping the Bears will wake up and realize they’re meandering in mediocrity.
Bringing back Pace and Nagy means another offseason of looking for quick fixes in the delusion that the Bears are just a couple tweaks away from being able to tangle with the Chiefs, Packers and the rest of the NFL’s best. Anyone can see that’s not true, and the result of that wishful thinking coming out of 2019 was another 8-8 record in 2020.
Neither Pace nor Nagy has been an all-out failure, but the case against them is substantial. That’s especially true for Pace, who has steered the team to 42-54 and no playoff wins over his six seasons. The Dolphins, Raiders and Cardinals are among the 22 teams with a better record in that span.
The quarterback on whom Pace bet his career, Mitch Trubisky, is fresh off another stark reminder that he’s not a competent NFL starter and will hit free agency as a prospective backup in two months.
Pace traded up to draft Trubisky at No. 2 overall in 2017, a waste of the franchise’s highest pick since 1951 as he missed on future stars Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.
The rest of Pace’s draft record is messy. His only good first-round pick was linebacker Roquan Smith after whiffing on Trubisky, Leonard Floyd (No. 9 in 2016) and Kevin White (No. 7 in 2015). He also blew a 2017 second-rounder on Adam Shaheen, and trading up to take Anthony Miller in the second round in 2018 isn’t looking so smart, either.
That said, he hit bullseye on fourth-rounders Eddie Jackson and Tarik Cohen, second-rounders Eddie Goldman and Cody Whitehair and fifth-rounder Jordan Howard. His recent class, headlined by Darnell Mooney, Jaylon Johnson and Cole Kmet looks solid as well.
There’s a more fundamental issue, though, that goes beyond win-loss record and draft history: Pace has shown no ability to build a functional offense — the Bears have scored the fourth-fewest points over the last six seasons — and his defensive blueprint has been crumbling.
The Bears devoted 27.2% of their payroll to Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Robert Quinn with the idea that they’d lead a formidable pass rush that would create a bonanza of takeaways. Instead, that trio combined for 14.5 sacks, and the Bears finished 25th in takeaways at 18.
Nagy’s argument to stay starts, and pretty much ends, with the fact that he’s been a great leader. He led the Bears impeccably through the coronavirus protocols and never appeared to lose his locker room. He’s ideal as the public voice of the organization.
He hasn’t been so great at everything else. He was hired to orchestrate an exhilarating offense and develop Trubisky into a functional quarterback, but neither has happened. Nagy also remains allergic to running the ball, repeats mistakes and too often refuses to adjust his scheme to suit his limited personnel.
His 28-20 record is decent, but includes an incredible seven wins in which his team scored fewer than 20 points — games in which the defense, with which he has no involvement, carried him.
That’s hardly justification to keep him. But then again, if the Bears are content to go 8-8 and stamp it as a successful season merely by falling into the final wild-card spot, there’s really no need to justify keeping everything the same.
