The Bears’ defense isn’t bad. Don’t overreact to their recent rough patch.
But it’s not the overwhelming force it used to be, and their decline over the last two seasons has rattled the foundation of the team. When the Bears won the NFC North in 2018, their defense carried them. It took over games by scoring or setting up the offense with a short field. It was terrifying.
Since then, however, the Bears have suffered personnel losses at every level and dipped — slightly in some cases, dramatically in others — in every category.
The Bears have said for two years they’d be a Super Bowl contender if they could just straighten out their offense. That’s not true anymore. Their defense has slipped from great to good, and that’s a major problem with general manager Ryan Pace’s blueprint.
While the Bears still rank 10th in the NFL in fewest points allowed at 22.7 — they were at 20.9 before sliding over the last four games — they’ve lost the threat of completely blowing up a game. Perhaps they’ll rediscover it against the Jaguars, who are one of the 10 most sacked and turnover-prone teams in the league.
The 2018 team was top-five in nearly everything, and No. 1 in many categories, but falls closer to the middle of the league.
The Bears are No. 6 in third-down stops, No. 3 in preventing touchdowns once a team reaches the red zone and ninth in fewest yards allowed per rush. They’re also 25th in takeaways, 15th in keeping opponents out of the red zone in the first place and 14th in total yards allowed.
The Bears’ biggest issue is they haven’t figured out their pass rush, and that’s damning considering it is Pace’s top priority.
“It’s a passing league, [and] if you hit the quarterback, your corners are better, your safeties are better,” Pace said in September. “If you’re hitting the quarterback, those balls are going to get thrown up... We’ve loaded up the secondary with guys that have ball skills. With a defense that can generate that kind of pass rush, that can equate to a lot of turnovers.”
The Bears averaged one sack every 13.3 times their opponent dropped back in 2018, and that level of pressure helped them lead the league with 27 interceptions (most by any team since 2013) and a 72.9 opponent passer rating (lowest since 2010).
The Bears had a good defense going into that season, and the Khalil Mack trade put them over the top. Mack had 12.5 sacks and six forced fumbles, and Akiem Hicks had 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. They’re nowhere near those numbers as this season comes to an end, and Pace’s $70 million splurge on outside linebacker Robert Quinn hasn’t had much impact.
It’s fine for Pace to commit $44.5 million in salary-cap space to Mack, Hicks and Quinn, but only if he gets a commensurate return on the investment. The Bears can’t spend that amount on pass rushers and still not have an overwhelming pass rush.
The price for that trio goes up to $53.3 million next season, by the way, and the Bears simply can’t keep paying that much money for an average pass rush. Their only alternative is to release Hicks with a dead-cap hit of $1.5 million and see if they can unload Mack’s contract in a trade. That would create space, and draft picks to address other needs.
For now, though, the Bears have no choice but to ride it out with this group and hope the defense regains enough of its form to challenge the Packers in the regular-season finale.
