The regular PGA Tour season is over and the FedEx Cup Playoffs are here - but who will strike first and take the opening event?
Plenty of big names missed out on the FedEx Cup Playoffs after finishing outside of the top 70 in the season-long contest, but there is still a stellar field of stars teeing it up at TPC Southwind this week, including Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.
Our resident betting expert, Baz Plummer, has been busy crunching the numbers and following trends... and he believes he has unearthed three great value tips at the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Tips 2026
Bazza's Best Bets
Top Tip: Sam Burns To Win @ BetMGM
Sam Burns has had an incredible season in 2026, with five-top 10 finishes so far, but there is one thing missing… a win! I believe he can rectify that this week, on a course where he has already finished runner-up and 5th in six appearances.
His recent form has been sublime, with a second place finish at the US Open and a third place finish at The Open in his last three starts. To win at TPC Southwind you need elite ball striking, a blend of distance and accuracy off the tee and the ability to score well on long, tough par-4s.
Burns is a great driver of the golf ball, but he also ranks 2nd for par-4 scoring average and 9th for SG: Approach (in the last three months).
After coming so close to a first Major win, I believe the script on Sam Burns has yet to reach its climax - which could be a playoff win (and perhaps the Tour Championship trophy).
Next Best Tip: Hideki Matsuyama To Win @ BetMGM
Hideki Matsuyama's form has spiked in recent weeks... and we know when that happens he can be very dangerous.
The 2021 Masters Champion has finished in the top-15 in each of his last five tournaments, with the highlight being a third-place at the 3M Open a few weeks ago.
His last three starts have all yielded a top-7 finish, which shows how hot he is right now, and I'd have liked his chances even without his impressive course record.
One of his 11 PGA Tour wins came at this course, winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2024, but he also has a runner-up finish here in 2021.
Matsuyama is an elite ball striker who suits this test perfectly, now that he has the driver a little more under control, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him in contention again.
Value Tip: Tom Kim To Win @ BetMGM
Tom Kim is the man of the moment and appears to be riding the crest of a wave after a great comeback win at the Genesis Scottish Open. That win came just a few starts after an impressive 3rd place finish at Shinnecock Hills, during the 2026 US Open and he appears to be showing no signs of slowing down after a T5 at the Wyndham last week.
At this price, I believe he represents great value. In the last three months he ranks as the best player in the world for SG: Approach - which is a crucial measure for success at TPC Southwind - but he also ranks 6th for par-4 scoring this season.
If he can find another gear on his impressive comeback journey, he will have a great chance again this week.
Golf Monthly Betting Panel Picks
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Pick One: Ludvig Aberg To Win @ BetMGM
The Swede may not have played since The Open Championship, but he finished T9th in that start, with Aberg also enjoying top 5 finishes in notable events like the PGA Championship and The Players Championship.
He's displayed great form and, although he hasn't been able to get over the line, a rest from the game will hopefully do him the world of good. Last year, Aberg finished T9th in this tournament, so he has good course form on a track that suits his game.
Pick Two: Michael Thorbjornsen To Win @ BetMGM
Winning the Rocket Classic in his last start, Thorbjornsen comes into the Playoffs in red hot form, with the American also making the cut at The Open and finishing T7th at the Genesis Scottish Open.
Although he hasn't played TPC Southwind in a FedEx Cup Playoff event, the course should suit his game, given that putting isn't always at a premium. He has gained shots on the greens lately, though, with his excellent long game giving me hope he'll continue to push on in Memphis.
Pick One: Sungjae Im To Win @ BetMGM
I'm looking for players who have been staying sharp since The Open and Sungjae Im fits the bill well here. The Korean has played three consecutive weeks since Birkdale and has gone MC-T15-T14.
He always plays a lot of golf so I don't think fatigue should be an issue, and hopefully he can continue this nice run he's currently on.
He was T16 here last year and T6 in 2023, which included a second-round 64, so the signs point to another good week for the two-time PGA Tour winner who is currently on a five-year trophy drought... Could that end this week? Hopefully!
Pick One: Harry Hall To Win @ BetMGM
The Englishman snapped a run of three consecutive cuts to post a T5 at the Wyndham for his best finish of the entire season.
Hall has the game to challenge with the best of them when he's on, so I'm backing him to keep his foot on the pedal this week after going 69-66-64-66 last week.
He was T22 here last year in his tournament debut after an opening 64, and at 58th in the FedEx Cup he is needing a good week to progress to the BMW.
Golf Monthly Betting Panel Tipping Record
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic 2025 |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic 2025 |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Patrick Reed |
Dubai Desert Classic 2026 |
+4000 |
Elliott Heath |
Cameron Young |
Players Championship 2026 |
+3500 |
Baz Plummer |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open 2025 |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational 2025 |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Haeran Ryu |
KPMG Women's PGA Championship |
+2000 |
Baz Plummer |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship 2025 |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
Valspar Championship 2026 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship 2025 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Cameron Young |
Cadillac Championship 2026 |
+1400 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield/Elliott Heath |
Chris Gotterup |
John Deere Classic 2026 |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK 2025 |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2025 |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia 2025 |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship 2025 |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open 2025 |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
